Tomorrow night (Oct. 8) at UFC 136 in Houston, Texas, Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo will try to continue to build his reputation as one of the pound-for-pound greatest fighters in the sport of mixed martial arts (MMA).
His opponent, Kenny Florian, will be looking to prove that he belongs in the 145-pound division and that he deserves to still be fighting the "cream-of-the-crop."
Yesterday, we showed you the detailed CompuStrike analysis for "Edgar vs. Maynard III." We know how you Maniacs love your statistics and, well, we felt like you've been extra good so far this month.
For your reward, here's a second helping of MMA-Math as we take a look at the numbers behind "Aldo vs. Florian."
Both Aldo and Florian have world-class ground games. One would think that the numbers would show that both fighters spend the majority of their fights on the canvas.
One would be wrong.
According to the statistics (based on nine UFC fights for Aldo and 12 for Florian), both athletes prefer to stand. Here's the data to back that up:
Jose Aldo Total Fight Time - Standing: 101:03 | Ground: 80:25
Kenny Florian Total Fight Time - Standing: 78:49 | Ground: 53:00
So we know their preference is generally to keep things standing up, but who holds the advantage if the fight stays on the feet?
Though both are dangerous strikers, Aldo would appear to be a vastly more accurate striker. Let's take a look:
They say every fighter has a "puncher's chance," but in a fight, one fighter always has an edge. The numbers show Aldo holding a slim advantage in this aspect:
Arm strike accuracy:
Aldo: 19 of 53 -- 36%
Florian: 16 of 47 -- 34%
In the "kicks" department, it isn't close. Though Florian is relatively accurate, there's no comparison to the precision of the current champion.
Aldo: 14 of 17 -- 82%
Florian: 7 of 14 -- 50%
"Ground-and-pound" is a weapon that can be effectively used to stop a match. Here's a look at which fighter has the more accurate striking when things go south.
Aldo: 24 of 30 -- 80%
Florian: 28 of 45 -- 62%
Aldo holds a dramatic lead in this category as well.
Last, but certainly not least, who is more effective with the takedown attempts?
Aldo: 7 of 10 -- 70%
Florian: 15 of 30 -- 50%
Though skewed a bit, due to a disparity in attempts, Aldo is clearly more effective when he shoots in to take his opponents down.
On paper, Aldo appears to be strongly favored. But they don't fight on paper, they take care of business in the Octagon.
What do you think, Maniacs? Are you surprised by any of the data? Thinking twice about any wagers?