UFC 117 predictions, preview and analysis

UFC 117: "Silva vs. Sonnen" from the Oracle Arena in Oakland, California, is finally upon us, as the world's largest fight promotion brings its stable of stars to "Oaktown" tomorrow night (Aug. 7) live on pay-per-view (PPV).

Remember: MMAmania.com will provide LIVE updates with blow-by-blow, round-by-round commentary of the main card action on fight night, which is slated to air at 10 p.m. ET.

About a month ago, I couldn't wait for this card. Now I can't wait for it to be a over. What a difference a few weeks (and a few sound bytes) can make.

The promotion has named this latest PPV offering after its two main event participants, current middleweight champion Anderson Silva and number one contender Chael Sonnen, in a fight that I've long since detached myself from.

Part of that has to do with the pre-fight hype machine which ironically, has played out like "The Spider's" most recent contest in Abu Dhabi -- only in reverse.

The Brazilian remains reserved, focused and often distant while Sonnen has become a caricature of himself, avoiding the label of desperate clown only from his failure to construct balloon animals during his recent media tour.

Of course we're still a few hours from show time and I suppose anything is possible.

This fight is a mismatch. It's been a mismatch from day one and no amount of promotional redirection can change that. Do I believe Chael Sonnen has a chance against Anderson Silva? Well, Andy's the last man standing, so it's bound to happen sooner or later.

Matt Serra, Frankie Edgar and Fabricio Werdum have proven there are no absolutes in this sport, so yes, Sonnen can beat Silva.

But there's a marked difference between "can" and "will."

The Oregonian knows he's outmatched, which is why he's (over) compensated with his trash talking. And why not? It's his 15 minutes so he might as well get the most out of them. Yet no joke, no matter how funny, can change the fact that Chael Sonnen hasn't finished a fight since 2007.

Can I realistically give a good wrestler with ten losses a fighting chance against a champion who's won 12 consecutive bouts with ten finishes? The best argument I've heard in favor of Sonnen is that Dan Henderson won the opening round against Silva at UFC 82 and that a similar gameplan could grind out an upset win.

Unfortunately Henderson never made it out of round two. Will Sonnen? He might, but five rounds against a fighter whose resume reads like a work of fiction is a tall order for any competitor.

Too tall for Sonnen, who will likely be submitted (and hopefully silenced) in round three.

And while he's busy sticking his head inside the mouth of the lion, a fantastic heavyweight match-up continues to get no mainstream love thanks to the physical attributes of its participants.

Roy Nelson, who looks like the guy changing tires at the tractor pull during the Shenango County Fair, will test his might against a hulking Brazilian named Junior dos Santos who speaks broken English and delivers broken bones.

There's a lot to like about this titanic tilt, just as there's a lot to like about Nelson and dos Santos.

"Big Country" was picked from the IFL rubble to beef up the Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 10 roster. Then he went and gave Dana a case of buyer's remorse by winning the damn thing. In addition to pounding out a Bona Fide ratings monster in Kimbo Slice, he obliterated the promotion's top prospect, Brendan Schaub, during last December's live finale.

A second-straight knockout would come for the jiggly jiu-jitsu ace when he clowned Stefan Struve earlier this year, elevating the defender of the fat from punchline to possible contender. Yes, the rumors are true, Roy Nelson can fight.

So too can dos Santos.

Like Nelson before him, the Nogueira pupil was supposed to be a sacrificial lamb when he was fed to Fabricio Werdum at UFC 90 in October 2008. Then Dana White's video blog caught a glimpse of him working the heavy bag and "Vai Cavalo" immediately put down his bag of potato chips.

Too little, too late.

That was five fights (and five finishes) ago and dos Santos has never looked back. The X-Factor is his ground game. We hear it's good -- but he has yet to prove it. Probably because he's too busy knocking people the F out.

Nelson's best bet is on the ground but I think the recent success on his feet may seduce him into an early exchange with "Cigano." Like the Arlovski fight, I predict that will be his undoing.

The only thing that stands between these two men and a shot at the winner of Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez at UFC 121 on Oct. 23 is each other. A win here earns it. Two guys with tremendous talent battling for a spot against the division champion.

If that doesn't get you pumped for this fight, then maybe you're in the wrong sport.

Or maybe Matt Hughes is. We'll find out exactly what's left of the flinty farmboy when he tangles with yet another Gracie fighter in the from of Ricardo Almeida.

Hughes was in charge of his division for quite awhile and did a good job of suppressing all challengers. Then again, when he was holding the strap, so was Chuck Liddell, Rich Franklin and Tim Sylvia.

The sport has a way of catching up to fighters because it evolves so quickly. Fortunately that evolution may not come into play here, as I believe a good, strong wrestler who understands the grappling game can dominate on the ground without getting submitted.

Denis Hallman notwithstanding, I favor Hughes here for that very reason but more so because I'm not convinced that "Chachorrao" will have enough gas in the tank to keep the pressure on.

The former middleweight makes a steep weight cut and after a round of being smothered, he's likely to lose the strength to keep Hughes committed into any kind of joint lock.

My only fear is that we get a replay of UFC 112, where two ground competitors who clearly have no business striking flail helplessly at one another for fifteen minutes.

If Matt Hughes shows up in shape and focused, this is his fight to lose. I think he takes the unanimous decision after a few scares in the opening round.

Another fight that could be decided in the opening frame depends on the condition of Thiago Alves as he battles everything from an extended layoff to weight cutting issues for his rematch with Jon Fitch.

"The Pitbull" is 7-1 with five finishes since his technical knockout loss to Fitch way back in 2006. His only defeat since that bout came at the hands of uber-champion Georges St. Pierre a little over a year ago at UFC 100.

This was a fight that was supposed to go down a few times, most recently at UFC 111 last March, but the Brazilian was forced to withdraw from the event to have his brain glued back together.

The big question here is which fighter has evolved more in the fours years since they met.

It's very hard to make an argument for Fitch. Like Alves, he sports just one loss, a unanimous decision to Georges St. Pierre in a gutsy performance that was grotesquely one-sided.

Including the "Rush" loss, Fitch has been to the judge's scorecards on seven straight occasions. You could even make the argument that he hasn't evolved at all.

The Saunders win was certainly a dominant performance, but "Killa-B" is not exactly elite competition and I thought he was in all kinds of trouble in the last round of his fight against Mike Pierce last December.

Conversely, Alves has knocked out Karo Parisyan and Matt Hughes prior to brutalizing Josh Koscheck at UFC 90. He's faced stiffer competition and put exclamation points on his victories by securing the stoppages.

I think all things being equal (and they aren't), Alves finishes this fight in the first round. I'm normally leery of picking fighters who have been on the sidelines for a year or more, but he hasn't been sitting on the couch sucking down Pão de Queijo.

Thiago's been slated to compete a couple of times during that period which means he's been on the fight scene, busy in the gym and training with his team. I've heard rumblings of weight issues (that Alves denies) but that didn't seem to stop him from finishing Hughes.

Then again, it's always nice to outweigh your opponent by 30 pounds.

Alves wants this win badly. He's well rested and extremely motivated. It wouldn't surprise me to see Fitch, who will wrestle valiantly, end up on queer street late in the opening stanza.

Can Rafael dos Anjos avoid a similar fate when he tries to stave off the relentless onslaught of Clay Guida? There are very few surprises in a Guida fight. The cage door will close and "The Carpenter" will go batshit for fifteen minutes straight -- or until he finishes or gets finished.

I'm predicting he gets finished.

Being on the receiving end of Jeremy Stephens Shoryuken at UFC 91 has given the Brazilian a bad rap. I think he's one of the more promising lightweight prospects and his performance in the Terry Etim fight back at UFC 112 highlighted his maturation as a fighter.

It's taken him a couple of fights to settle down but I think the confidence he takes into this scrap will help him weather the inevitable blitzkrieg and find a limb. The knock on Guida is that he's all balls and no brains. While it makes for an exciting fight, it doesn't get your career to the next level.

Yes, I've heard all about his transformation under the tutelage of Greg Jackson and how he's coming into Oakland a more refined fighter, but this is not the first time he's made those claims. The threat of submission is always there as he displayed in an impressive win over Shannon Gugerty last March but against dos Anjos, that threat is nullified.

That leaves his high-paced, rock 'em-sock 'em robot attack and the hope that it will be enough to fluster his foe and secure the victory. Maybe he can eek out a split decision, but more than likely he'll be tapping out as dos Anjos continues his slow but steady rise through the division.

UFC 117 predictions:

185 lbs.: Anderson Silva (-400) vs. Chael Sonnen (+300): Silva via submission
170 lbs.: Ricardo Almeida (-175) vs. Matt Hughes (+145): Hughes via unanimous decision
265 lbs.: Junior Dos Santos (-350) vs. Roy Nelson (+250): Dos Santos via KO
170 lbs.: Thiago Alves (-140) vs. Jon Fitch (+110): Alves via TKO
155 lbs.: Rafael dos Anjos (-110) vs. Clay Guida (-120): Dos Anjos via submission

That’s a wrap, folks.

Remember to come check us out after the show for all the latest results, recaps and coverage of "Silva vs. Sonnen."

What do you think? Now it’s your turn … let us have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for Saturday’s event.