Programming reminder: Countdown to UFC 121 'Lesnar vs Velasquez' debuts TONIGHT (Oct. 18) on Spike TV

He has better technical striking..

Everything else is very subjective.. Is he faster than Lesnar ?? I don’t think he is. And if he is, it isn’t that much of a difference to really stand out.

Lesnar has the size, strength, and reach advantage.

Is Cain’s ground game that good ? Not any better than Brock’s. I don’t see how Cain is going to submit Lesnar if Frank Mir couldn’t. Frank is a MUCH more accomplished submission fighter / grappler than Cain is.

Let’s think about this logically here..

First off..

Laws of Physics.. When you have two athletes equally skilled, the general rule of thumb is the bigger man will win. This is not always the case but it holds true enough all the same. Thus the reason’s for weight classes.

What we do know is..

Barry and del Rosario striking > Velasquez

Barry and del Rosario stand up > Velasquez stand up

Brock has a heavy advantage in that his training partners are elite level HW strikers. He also has Konrad who wrestled Cain 7 times in college. Cain’s success in college came from his shot. When he was forced to stay up he often lost to the bigger men. He was also not that good in terms of technique, thus resulting in losing to the bigger more technical elite wrestlers (Konrad, Mocco, Wagner, etc..)

While he is not a scrub in terms of wrestling, he is not world class either. His “endless cardio” is nothing but hyperbole. He didn’t possess it in college and he doesn’t now. He’s very talented, but far from unbeatable. His weaknesses have always been Brock’s strengths. Brock has had great success throughout his entire career with men in Cain’s size range. He tired in the Kongo fight. Just because he keeps a frantic pace in the first round of a fight doesn’t mean he holds that pace for 25 solid minutes either. He will tire and slow as the fight wears on. If he gets stuck underneath Lesnar he will tire from carrying Lesnars weight.

What we know is that all Lesnar has to do is avoid getting caught on the button and that’s what he brought in Barry and del Rosario for. These guys were not brought in to improve Brock’s striking. They were brought in to improve Brock’s timing. Barry and del Rosario are much faster, more technical and powerful strikers. If Brock can acclimate his timing to counter their striking, that’s all he needs to do to get the fight where he wants it. With a 5" reach advantage he can keep Cain out of range. Cain will have to commit into range and that’s where they want it to be..

Am I saying Cain has no chance ? Not in the least.. But he will have to catch Lesnar to impliment his game plan and that’s a risky gamble. For all the talk of Cain’s shot.. Lesnar’s was better..

And I brought up Neal because Neal only the greatest wrestler in college history (arguably). Brock hung with him and lost on points.. Cain never even sniffed a D-1 title.. He lost to Wagner both years without ever reaching a finals..

Konrad has never gotten the better of Brock at anything..

I don’t know where you read that from.. I just asked the dude and he told me it wasn’t true.. The only time anybody outworked him in training was the 2 weeks he was sick before the Carwin fight. That’s when he pulled out and then got diverticulitis. That’s how they knew Brock wasn’t right.. Nobody has ever outworked him in practice..period..

Brock has had Cole on top of him, but from drills working back to his feet. He gets up every time.. Nobody has held him down. That include multiple guys subbing in during 5 minute intervals..

Konrad’s wrestling credentials are well-documented. He’s arguably the most successful wrestler in the history of Gophers wrestling. Konrad went 76-0 and won two Division I national titles at heavyweight during his junior and senior seasons. Over his final three years at the University of Minnesota, Konrad compiled a 117-3 record, two gold medals and one silver medal.

Konrad only had 13 total NCAA losses. 10 in his freshman year. 3 in his sophmore year (one of those losses to Cain in a 4-3 points match). 0 in his junior and senior year.

Considering Konrad and Velasquez wrestled 7 times, we can see their record is 6-1 in favor of Konrad. Cain had good TD defense but could never stop people from taking him down at the elite level.

Again, as I pointed out.. Cain’s weaknesses have always been Brock’s strengths..

Don’t be fooled by their records in MMA either.. Cain has only had 2 additional fights than Lesnar and hasn’t had the level of competition that Lesnar has had thus far in MMA. I also believe Carwin was 12-0 heading into their fight.. For all the talk of Brock coming back in that fight, we can also look at the other end of that spectrum here too. Carwin had never been out of the first round. The minute he got out of his normal comfort zone, the fight changed drastically..

The point of this discussion is to look at the logistics of both fighters, weight the odds and then account for the variables here. Cain has looked good in 7 of his 8 fights. Kongo showed that he can be hurt and controlled. What you havent seen is how will Cain react when he gets put in a position that he is not used to ? You also have to account for the nerves and adrenaline dump here. This is the big stage with the sports biggest draw. To Lesnar.. this is simply another day at the office. For Cain.. This is all new and the added stress can play heavily on your nerves. What this does is impact how you may react in certain situations that he normally wouldn’t react to.

For instance, if he gets clipped and put on his back.. how will he hold up when Lesnar starts pounding on his head ?

This fight can go either way.. But the odds on favorite is all in Lesnar’s favor. Don’t be swayed by bookies and marketing. If we know one thing.. Lensar won’t fold when the pressure is on. Does Cain hold up if he gives it everything he has and Lesnar is still standing ready for the next round ? It happened to Carwin and it can happen to Cain too..