UFC Fight Night 20 predictions, preview and analysis
UFC Fight Night 20: "Maynard vs. Diaz" is set to go down this Monday, January 11, 2010 from the Patriot Center in Fairfax, VA, live via Spike TV.
Remember: MMAmania.com will provide LIVE updates with blow-by-blow, round-by-round commentary of the main card action on fight night, which is slated to air on the cable television network at 9 p.m. ET.
To get us pumped for the event, MMAmania.com Editor and Senior Writer, Jesse Holland (that’s me), has once again rallied the troops for a breakdown of the televised main card fights. All your favorite contributors are here, bringing you an in-depth look at each contest.
One of the big stories coming into this event is of course the headlining fight between Gray Maynard and Nate Diaz. Will "The Bully" be able to avoid a repeat of his TUF 5 loss to the wily submission specialist? Or is he too one-dimensional to make it to the promised land?
And does a victory for Diaz give Frankie Edgar the next crack at BJ Penn in Abu Dhabi?
There are also a lot of unanswered questions regarding the future of Efrain Escudero. Is the undefeated lightweight being overlooked in this division? Or does he still have something to prove?
And is beating Evan Dunham a stiff enough test for "Hencho en Mexico?"
There will certainly be a lot to talk about on Monday morning.
I’ve also included the current betting lines for each fight so that you can get a feel for what the money has to say about the chances of each combatant.
Now, enough with the formalities … let’s get cracking:
155 lbs.: Nate Diaz (11-4) vs. Gray Maynard (8-0)
Derek Bolender predicts: Lightweights Gray Maynard and Nate Diaz square off in the main event of the evening on January 11. This fight is technically a rematch as the pair squared off in the semifinals on The Ultimate Fighter season five show. Diaz recorded the second round submission victory and went on to defeat Manny Gamburyan in the finals to be crowned the season five lightweight champion. The victory over Maynard, however, did not count on either man's record as the NSAC does not recognize them as professional bouts.
It has now been 3 - 4 years since they first met as very green, very one dimensional martial artists. The matchup is essentially useless when trying to predict an outcome today as both men have developed into well-rounded mixed martial artists with very few weaknesses.
In other words, take of sip from your favorite UFC sponsor Mickey's and erase that brain cell from your dome.
Flash forward to current day and Maynard is arguably the best wrestler in the UFC lightweight division and a former three-time All-American at Michigan State University. He is also one of the biggest 155-pound fighters in the world, which earned him the nickname "The Bully," as he is known for imposing his superior size and strength on his opponents.
His jiu-jitsu is largely average although he did almost pull off a kimura in his last fight against Roger Huerta at UFN 19. His standup is also a work in progress, but he did show much improvement in his recent fight with Jim Miller at UFC 96. Regardless, when push comes to shove he would much rather take you down and try to maul you on the mat.
Diaz, on the other hand, is a jiu-jitsu black belt under Cesar Gracie and one of the best submission artists in the division. His boxing is pretty technical and hard to deal with as his punches tend to be loopy and arrive from odd angles. His reach is also a nice advantage as his body type is very tall and lean.
When putting these two side by side I immediately point to two of Diaz's previous fights for guidance; specifically, his losses to Clay Guida at UFC 94 and Joe Stevenson at the TUF 9 finale. Both men were able to largely dictate those fights with their superior wrestling skills.
I think Maynard will adopt a similar approach as his wrestling is even better than that of Guida and Stevenson. He is also bigger and stronger than those two men. Once he gets his hands on Diaz and secures a few takedowns all he will have to worry about is a couple submission attempts from an exhausted Diaz. When he shrugs off the submission attempts or powers out of them it will be his hand that is raised after the bell sounds at the conclusion of the third round.
Make not mistake about it. This is the most important fight of Maynard's career as a potential title shot against the current UFC lightweight champion B.J. Penn is likely on the line.
If he sustains too much damage in a win or is defeated the man who he previously dominated at UFN 13, Frankie Edgar, would likely get the nod against Penn.
A win over Diaz would also make it seven in a row in the UFC for Maynard. Only three fighters in the history of the UFC have won eight or more consecutive fights; Royce Gracie, Jon Fitch, and Anderson Silva.
Finishing Diaz would go a long way in cementing his status as the #1 contender as well, but Diaz has never been knocked out or submitted in his UFC career. He is very good off his back and has a very good guard. It has helped him avoid serious damage on the ground in the past.
It would be in Maynard's best interest to try to finish the fight at all costs as Edgar is the more marketable of the two. Securing a finish is easier said than done of course, and I don't think he gets it.
Personally, I feel Maynard deserves the title shot with a victory, even if it's a mildly impressive decision due to the head-to-head victory over Edgar and his current win streak. It only seems fair, even though fair rarely has anything to do with it.
Either way, neither man has a prayer in hell against the Hawaiian kingpin Penn -- so what are we even arguing about?
Betting lines (as of Jan. 10):
Maynard: -300 ((Bet Now))
Diaz: +220 ((Bet Now))
Prediction: Maynard via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Evan Dunham (9-0) vs. Efrain Escudero (12-0)
Adam Wagner predicts: Since making his professional debut in 2007, Evan Dunham (9-0) has earned impressive victories over Marcus Aurelio and Per Eklund, along with a submission win over 2008 no gi world champion Cleber Luciano. A brown belt in jiu-jitsu, Dunham showed improved striking and solid submission defense in his split decision victory over Aurelio.
There isn’t a whole lot of tape on Dunham and that might be to his advantage heading into this fight. That submission defense is going to come in handy and we’ll see how good his chin is, which Escudero will look to test. Whether or not he deserves to be in the co-main event is yet to be seen, but Dunham is looking to make a name for himself and no better way than with a win over Escudero.
Efrain Escudero (12-0) is the season 8 winner of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF), with his unanimous decision over Phillipe Nover, aka the fainting nurse. But it was his first round smashing of Cole Miller, a seven-fight UFC veteran, that showed just how dangerous Escudero can be.
The word on the street is Escudero’s the real deal, and I personally feel he shows more promise than any TUF winner since Rashad Evans. With both fighters being new to the UFC, it’s difficult to say who has the better jitz, stand-up, etc., but it’s difficult to bet against Escudero in this fight. I expect 2010 to be a good year for the TUF champion.
Betting lines (as of Jan. 10):
Escudero: -260 ((Bet Now))
Dunham: +200 ((Bet Now))
Prediction: Escudero via technical knockout
185 lbs.: Tom Lawlor (6-1) vs. Aaron Simpson (6-0)
Nate Lawson predicts: Tom "The Filthy Mauler" Lawlor has quickly become a UFC fan favorite. Whether it was his antics on The Ultimate Fighter 8, or his highly entertaining entrance at UFC 100, Lawlor is a character the fans genuinely seem to enjoy.
However, it is not only his antics and attitude that have the fans on his side, but his skill inside the cage. Lawlor is one of the toughest, roughest fighters in the UFC and has the look of an absolute brawler. His wrestling and submission game have led him to success during his short time in mixed martial arts, and he is going to need both on Jan. 11.
While he may have the fans on his side when he walks out to the octagon on Monday night, along with his skill in on the ground, Lawlor will have to look across the cage at a very dangerous Aaron Simpson, who will be his biggest test yet.
Simpson has been nothing short of a wrecking ball since arriving on the mixed martial arts professional scene in Oct. of 2007 at Proving Grounds 2. Since his technical knockout debut victory, Simpson has improved his record to 6-0 with every fight ending in knockout.
"A-Train" looked phenomenal in his fight against Ed Herman at UFC 102 this past August. After a completely dominant first round, Herman needed just 17 seconds in the second round before the referee stopped the fight, calling it a technical knockout due to injury.
There is really no question which way each fighter wants this fight to go. Lawlor needs the fight to hit the floor in order to utilize his submission game, while Simpson will prefer a "stand and bang" type of fight.
Unfortunately for Lawlor, come Monday night he will run into a guy with heavy hands, effective stand up, and the wrestling pedigree to make sure he is able to keep the fight where he wants it.
Look for Simpson to avoid the takedown and initiate a stand up war with Lawlor. "The Filthy Mauler" is tough as nails, so a finish from Simpson may be tricky, but unless Lawlor can get the fight to the ground early and often, he has little chance at victory on Jan. 11. Look for Simpson to outclass Lawlor on the feet and avoid the takedown en route to a unanimous decision victory.
Betting lines (as of Jan. 10):
Lawlor: +330 ((Bet Now))
Simpson: -250 ((Bet Now))
Prediction: Simpson via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Amir Sadollah (2-1) vs. Brad Blackburn (15-9-1)
Akimitsu Kuwabara predicts: The Ultimate Fighter Season Seven winner, Amir Sadollah returns to the Octagon against a respectable IFL veteran, Brad "Bad" Blackburn after a thorough thrashing of Phil "New York Bad Ass" Baroni at UFC 106.
Sadollah's recognition comes from his stint in TUF, but the luster from his Cinderella run in the series has been fading fast after a year-long layoff and 29-second TKO loss to Johnny Hendricks at UFC 101. While he rebounded with a dominant decision victory over an effete Phil Baroni at UFC 106, he is still an unknown quantity trying to prove his worth. A victory over Blackburn should give him a jolt of momentum in the ongoing quest to cement his foothold in UFC.
Blackburn cut his teeth in IFL and joined UFC after the dissolution of the former. He has been plagued with inconsistency throughout his career but is finally on a steady track: Aside from one no-contest, he has five victories over the likes of Jay Hieron and Ryo Chonan in his last six fights. After a split decision victory over Edgar Garcia at TUF 9 finale last June, he was sidelined by an injury that delayed his return to the Octagon.
This fight promises firework on the feet, as both fighters share affinity for striking. Sadollah boasts precise striking with a good repertoire of knees and kicks, thanks to his muay thai background. Blackburn is also technically sound with his striking. He moves well and is capable of piecing together accurate punching combinations.
Having earned eight of his fifteen victories via T(KO), Blackburn has the edge in power and poses a palpable threat to Sadollah whose defense is hardly air-tight. Sadollah's willingness to charge in with punches against Johnny Hendricks was met with a hard left hook that wobbled him. Phil Baroni also managed to tag him with punches from the clinch before running out of gas. For a fighter with only three professional fights and little amateur experience, facing a veteran fighter like Blackburn with both power and technique is a daunting task.
Sadollah has shown flashes of submission savvy but not the ability to force his opponent into grappling via takedown or guard-pulling.
One glaring hole in Blackburn's game has been his conditioning. His tendency to lose steam after the first round was a critical factor in many of his career losses. In his last two fights -- decision victories over Edgar Garcia and Ryo Chonan -- he slowed down in the second and third round, leaving himself vulnerable in the striking exchange. Through his TUF run, Sadollah has proven to be a clutch performer who can rise from the jaws of defeat: If he can demonstrate the same tenacity against Blackburn, he may take home another exhilarating, comeback victory.
Sadollah will weather early storm and take over the fight in the later rounds for a close decision victory.
Betting lines (as of Jan. 10):
Sadollah: -160 ((Bet Now))
Blackburn: +130 ((Bet Now))
Prediction: Sadollah via unanimous decision
That’s a wrap, folks.
Remember to come check us out after the show for all the latest results, recaps and coverage of UFC Fight Night 20: "Maynard vs. Diaz."
What do you think? Now it’s your turn … let us have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for Monday’s event.
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Comments
Excellent breakdown of Sadollah-Blackburn
but wtf was the simpson one. Come on Holland – that’s your basic TD, GNP for A-train. His grappling game is far beyond that of the fn tom lawler. He won’t get subbed though i still give credit Tom for developing a good guillotine. That’s the sub equivalent of instant KO power and very hand sub to have in your arsenal. Still, with his power no UD here, just another mauling for the future randy couture.
by NNR (formerly NameNotRequired) on Jan 10, 2010 12:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
my picks are starting to scare me now lol
i cant see passed gray or efrain who ive picked but ive gone for lawlor/blackburn and leben.if i was a betting man out of the three id probably only bet on blackburn tbh.as for 109 the only hard pick is swick/thiago imo.
by scott1 on Jan 10, 2010 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Blackburn has value on him
I wouldn’t bet the efrain fight unless you’re a high volume bettor and have other things lined up. As far as swick/thiago, like i said before the Hardy fight – swick really has not impressed. Thiago on the other hand has shown himself to be a fighting idiot savant. His past fights show how terrible his skillsets are yet he keeps rising to the occasion even when vastly outgunned. I got him for the upset here but i think the betting lines will reflect this a much mroe even matchup.
by NNR (formerly NameNotRequired) on Jan 10, 2010 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
NNR: who you betting on UFN and WEC?
I really like simpson. still undecided on the rest
by John G. on Jan 10, 2010 5:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nothin on WEC – no value anywhere and too much unknowns on the undercard
UFN – Jay Silva, Amir parlay and Tavares straight (i still have big big hopes for that kid). still considering a Blackburn pick though simply because he’s definitely gonna pile up some very solid offense early and a jumpy ref may stop it.
by NNR (formerly NameNotRequired) on Jan 10, 2010 10:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, its h6ard for me to identify any value bets. Tricky events to bet!
I didnt bet any of last nights fights!
i agree that Tavares, although inconsistant, is a stud, capable of competing wih the top dogs! I will be betting5 Tavares for sure!
Im betting simpson!
I like your Jay Silva…but I am undecided on the amir fight!
by John G. on Jan 11, 2010 10:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree with all, except to be picky Efrain by UD as I have a lot of respect for Dunham. Also, throw in 2nd round RNC for Rory MacDonald.
by Amos14 on Jan 10, 2010 12:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Going by the record book...
I believe Machida has also won eight straight in the Octagon, unless you discount his latest win against Shogun.
Agree with the Maynard-Diaz analysis, not sure what Diaz can do to win this one.
by Pantherhare on Jan 10, 2010 12:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
You’re right he has, and controversy or no controversy on the scoring, his last fight should be counted.
by Hardcase on Jan 10, 2010 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice catch
Machida does have 8 in a row too (well, sort of). I’ll have Nostradumbass fix it.
by Derek Bolender on Jan 10, 2010 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I really hope Maynard takes this one as I can’t stand the Diaz brothers. They have no personality and think they are so hard. As much as I hate them, they have a way of always being in the fight and both have good submissions. I can’t remember the last time either of them got finished in a fight. They do tend to lose decisions to good wrestlers.
by Solmonsen on Jan 10, 2010 1:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
"They have no personality"
I’m a Diaz Bros fan but I can understand why others dislike them, however they are anything but fighters with no personality. Gray Maynard is a guy with no personality, the Diaz Bros are 2 crazy young fighters who get high, like to stand and bang and can submit anyone if given the chance. They are wild men and you never know what they’ll say or do next.
"Anderson Silva is the best fighter on the planet...any Anderson Silva fight that is on, people should be buying that PPV, not because he’s my fighter but you know what, he to me is like the Muhammad Ali of MMA...the UFC has been around since 1993, nobody (else) has 10 consecutive wins in the UFC. Anderson has had 10 fights in the UFC, only 1 has ever gone to a decision."
Ed Soares on why Andy is the best fighter in the world
by David W-S on Jan 10, 2010 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not only that....
You never really know what they are saying when they are speaking!
by Amos14 on Jan 10, 2010 5:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like the Diaz brothers the same way I like Lesnar
In that I hate them. I love rooting against them. I love seeing them lose.
That’s why I love watching their fights.
by Pantherhare on Jan 10, 2010 9:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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