The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 10 Finale predictions, preview and analysis

The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 10 Finale is set to go down this Saturday, December 5, 2009 from "The Pearl" at the Palms Casino Resort in Las Vegas, Nevada, live via Spike TV.

Remember: MMAmania.com will provide LIVE updates with blow-by-blow, round-by-round commentary of the main card action on fight night, which is slated to air on Spike at 9 p.m. ET.

To get us pumped for the event, MMAmania.com Editor and Senior Writer, Jesse Holland (that’s me), has once again rallied the troops for a breakdown of the televised main card fights. All your favorite contributors are here, bringing you an in-depth look at each contest.

One of the big stories coming into this event is of course the headlining fight between Jon Jones and Matt Hamill. While all the talk in the 205-pound division revolves around the rematch between Shogun Rua and Lyoto Machida, "Bones" is quietly sneaking up behind them with bad intentions.

But don't expect Matt Hamill to just roll over for the surging prospect.

There are also a lot of unanswered questions regarding the future of Kimbo Slice. Is Houston Alexander going to take advantage of Ferguson's weight cutting struggles and create his own YouTube highlight?

And what happens to the marketability of Slice with a loss?

Also on tap is the final battle for the "Ultimate" contract, as Brendan Schaub and Roy Nelson duke it for TUF 10 bragging rights and a clear path to heavyweight notoriety.

Can Schaub keep himself out of the dreaded belly-flop crucifix?

There will certainly be a lot to talk about on Sunday morning.

I’ve also included the current betting lines for each fight so that you can get a feel for what the money has to say about the chances of each combatant.

Now, enough with the formalities … let’s get cracking:

205 lbs.: Matt "The Hammer" Hamill (7-2) vs. Jon "Bones" Jones (9-0)

The headlining fight for the Ultimate Fighter Season 10 finale, as my grandma would say, is likely to be a doozy. It pits 22-year-old up and comer Jon Jones (9 – 0 overall, 3 – 0 UFC) against UFC veteran and Ultimate Fighter Season 3 alum Matt Hamill (7 – 2 overall, 6 – 2 UFC) in a highly anticipated three round affair.

The winner moves up another rung in the talent infested 205-pound light heavyweight division and edges closer to potential #1 contender status. "The Hammer" is coming off a Mirko Cro Cop-esque knockout kick to the dome of Mark Munoz at UFC 96.

He is a savvy veteran who predominantly uses his well decorated wrestling background to impose his will on guys and finish them on the ground. That is his bread and butter and still his best chance to end a fight. He has, however, shown increasingly improved striking starting most notably in his fight with Reese Andy at UFC 92.

For Hamill to secure the upset victory he is going to have to keep it simple; takedowns, takedowns, and more takedowns. He has to get the fight on the mat, wear Jones down, and be able to stay away from his biggest strength, which is his stand-up game.

Once he has Jones on his back he can then attempt to inflict enough damage via ground and pound to try and end the fight. However, if Jones is defending well off his back Hamill could also try to employ the not-so-viewer-friendly approach of laying and praying his way to victory. You may want to throw your remote at the television if this comes to fruition, but being exciting is not a requirement for locking up a win last time I checked.

The problem with Hamill’s likely game plan is that Jones is not a one-trick pony. He’s not a striker in the mold of a Melvin Manhoef, who will automatically lie on his back once you get your mitts on him.

Jones is already as well-rounded as they come in the division, which is what happens when you hang around Firas Zahabi’s Tri Star Gym in Montreal, Quebec, Canada on a frequent basis. It’s a place known most notably for producing current UFC welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre.

When it comes down to it Jones has good enough wrestling ability to deter Hamill’s takedowns. It simply tends to get overshadowed and swept under the rug because he has the dynamic stand-up skills that are so easy on the eye. Furthermore, Hamill has shown very poor cardio in the past, most notably in his fight with Rich Franklin at UFC 88, which will also hamper his ability to get anywhere near a high takedown percentage.

Hamill is also coming off knee surgery since the aforementioned Munoz fight and nobody really knows whether or not his cardio will even be up to the level it was at prior to the surgery, which was sub-par at best.

I would not be surprised if he is hunched over and breathing heavily after just a few minutes into the fight, much like Rosie O’Donnell feels after a 30 ft. walk to her refrigerator in the morning.

Ultimately, the pace and tempo of this fight will be dictated by Jones. He will keep the fight standing where I believe he will slowly be able to pick Hamill apart. I fully expect "Bones" to use every bit of his 6’4" frame and 8 ½ inch reach advantage to stay at distance where he will be able to unleash a barrage of punches and kicks from angles Hamill has never dreamed of before.

Ask Stephan Bonnar what a mixed bag of strikes will do to you. It will keep you guessing to the point where you backtrack and bitch slap simultaneously because you don’t have a clue what is coming next.

This fight will no doubt be the toughest test of Jones’ young career, but one I expect him to pass with flying colors. Jones is the sexy pick here and I am comfortably on his bandwagon for the foreseeable future.

After all, he is more LeBron James sexy than Harold Miner sexy, if you get my drift.

Betting lines (as of Dec. 4):

Jones: -260 ((Bet Now))

Hamill: +200 ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Jones via technical knockout

265 lbs.: Roy "Big Country" Nelson (14-4) vs. Brendan Schaub (4-0)

Brendan Schaub and Roy Nelson have worked their way through the competition of this season of "The Ultimate Fighter", all the way to "The Ultimate Fighter Finale" and a shot at a six-figure contract with the UFC.

Nelson brings an edge of experience to the fight, having participated in 17 total professional fights, including seven fights in the IFL where he was also the heavyweight champion for a spell. However, when he was forced to move on to other organizations, "Big Country" has gone cold, losing to Andrei Arlovski and Jeff Monson.

Schaub has less than one-quarter of the professional experience Nelson can claim. However, an undefeated record, in which he stopped each opponent, makes Schaub an appealing prospect for the division. His knockout power is what set him apart from the majority of the heavyweight hopefuls from this season.

The last time Nelson faced a fast and powerful striker, he was obliterated by Andrei Arlovski. Schaub will pose the same threat as "The Pitbull" did. Nelson will look to get the fight to the ground, as he did in his fights with Kimbo Slice and James McSweeney. However, just like his bout with Marcus Jones, Schaub will be able to ward off the smothering from Nelson and keep the fight standing, where a knockout victory is inevitable.

At a +175 underdog on Betus.com, Schaub is an appealing pick. With his knockout power and superior athleticism, the former professional football player will rise above the experience and size of "Big Country" on his way to a knockout victory, a six-figure deal with the UFC and the title of "The Ultimate Fighter."

Betting lines (as of Dec. 4):

Nelson: -220 ((Bet Now))

Schaub: +175 ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Schaub via knockout

215 lbs.: Kevin "Kimbo Slice" Ferguson (3-1) vs. Houston "The Assassin" Alexander (8-4-1)

Reach into your pocket, pull out a coin and flip it. That's probably the best way to decide the outcome of this one, but I'll give a shot at an analysis anyway.

Both guys have proven themselves as devastating power punchers, but they've also both proven to have suspect chins and questionable cardio, meaning this fight probably won't last too long.

I like Houston to win for two reasons. The first reason is because Kimbo's attitude has changed since his YouTube days. He seems to have lost his killer instinct. I mean, he declined a chance to get back into the TUF tournament on last night's episode because "it wasn't smart."

WTF is that?

That's not the backyard brawler I remember. Elite XC's protection act really did a number on his psyche as a fighter. He's lost his confidence and that's not good, especially going into a fight with a guy like Houston Alexander.

The second reason is because Houston's striking is more versatile than Kimbo's. Look at his last fight and how he destroyed Sherman Pendergarst with leg kicks. Kimbo won't have to worry about getting taken down, but he is going to have to account for Houston's kicks. And that's going to take at least a little bit away from his ability to be aggressive with his punches.

Plus there's the whole first-time UFC jitters thing working against him too -- and let's not even get started on the difficulty Slice has had cutting weight.

I'm betting on Houston.

When it comes down to it, these two are probably going to meet in the middle of the Octagon and sling haymakers until one of them goes to sleep, making this analysis kind of pointless. But there is a chance that Kimbo, being the "smart" fighter that he's become, might actually try to put some of his American Top Team training to use by taking Houston down and submitting him.

Nah, this one is what it is ... a brawl. And it should be fun to watch. Enjoy!

Betting lines (as of Dec. 4):

Slice: +200 ((Bet Now))

Alexander: -260 ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Alexander via knockout

155 lbs.: Frankie "The Answer" Edgar (10-1) vs. Matt Veach (11-0)

Why does this fight scare me so much? Because Frankie Edgar has everything to lose in this fight and very little to gain. That’s not to say I expect him to lose. On the contrary.

Even before his recent win at UFC 98 against former lightweight champion Sean Sherk, Edgar had cemented his place as a true contender in the UFC’s 155-pound division. You don’t beat guys like Tyson Griffin, Jim Miller, Spencer Fisher and Hermes Franca unless you’re a stud. The unanimous decision nod over Sherk shocked the hell out of company president Dana White, who admitted he didn’t see any way that Edgar was going to win that fight until he did it.

And he did it by completely revamping his game, following the April 2008 loss to Gray Maynard. Where "The Bully" out-wrestled Edgar via lay-n-pray, "The Muscle Shark" couldn’t. Fool me once … I’ll kick your ass the next time. And that’s essentially what Frankie did, refusing to relinquish the takedown and out-boxing a former champion with a solid wrestling base.

But Matt Veach is something different, mostly because he’s an unknown. A junior-college All-American wrestler and Division I NCAA qualifier, Veach made his UFC debut back in February, surviving an early pounding by Matt Grice to TKO the four-time high school Oklahoma state wrestling champion in the first round. Some argued it was an early stoppage. I argue Veach can hit people in the face pretty damn hard.

And for that reason this fight worries me. Seven of Edgar’s 11 fights have gone to a decision, and other than Fisher and (arguably) Franca, he hasn’t faced a whole lot of sluggers with knockout power. Does Veach have that power? I can’t say, and that’s the problem. But the little we do know about Veach — including the fact that he’s seen the third round just once in his career — suggests that no one should sleep on him, else they might go to sleep.

Edgar’s camp should relay one message: There’s no dicking around here. Take advantage of Veach’s early aggression, throw that jab like you’re screaming, "Getoffame!" Break him early and show that you truly deserve that title shot you’ve been inching towards. But if Edgar falls back on his heels, watch out.

Betting lines (as of Dec. 4):

Edgar: -700 ((Bet Now))

Veach: +450 ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Edgar via technical knockout

265 lbs.: Marcus "The Darkness" Jones (4-1) vs. Matt Mitrione (0-0)

The back-up TUF 10 casts of former NFL players, "Big Baby" and "Meathead," square off to round out the main card.

In the final episode of TUF 10, Marcus Jones unleashed an unfettered verbal assault on Matt Mitrione for playing mind games and dragging down the morale in the house with (imagined) medical woes. If anything builds excitement for a fight that normally would be buried deep in the under card, Jones' uncharacteristic outburst gets the job done for millions of TUF viewers tuning in.

Jones and Mitrione are still green in MMA and have long, rocky roads ahead in making an impact in UFC's rapidly improving heavyweight division. Having said that, Jones has shown flashes of promise throughout the season in his victories over Mike Wessel and Darrill Schoonover and a valiant effort against Brendan Schaub: Besides his size and brute muscularity, he has displayed competent jiu-jitsu courtesy of his training at Gracie Tampa under Rob Kahn.

Mitrione, on the other hand, has not shown much besides the willingness to throw sloppy, mile-wide punches in bunches and a few half-hearted submission attempts.

As soon as the opening bell rings, it is a matter of time before Jones forces Mitrione down to the mat and utilizes his superior positioning and submission savvy to shed an unforgiving light on Meathead's grappling deficiency.

Jones has looked rigid on his feet with gaping holes in both offense and defense. While his rudimentary striking prowess cost him a six-figure contract in his fight with Schaub in the semi-finals, he should not have much to fear in Mitrione's anemic striking. If he wants to take the most conservative route to victory, Jones can simply put his hands up high and withstand the early onslaught while waiting for an opportunity to prey on his opponent on the mat.

One variable that may influence how the fight unfolds -- but not the likely outcome -- is the level of conditioning both fighters bring to the Octagon. Throughout the season, Jones struggled mightily with conditioning drills and Mitrione ran out of gas tank after three and a half minutes of throwing a desperate flurry of punches against Scott Junk.

The erratic training schedule during the TUF stint, notably the short interval and preparation time between fights, often does not afford fighters the luxury of a comprehensive conditioning regimen. Even then, the size of their gas tank has been a glaring hole in both Jones' and Mitrione's game.

If Jones comes in with inferior conditioning than Mitrione, he may encounter unexpected struggles on the feet. Then again, given Mitrione's porous takedown defense, Jones should be able to force the fight to the ground with enough effort. On the ground, Jones will quickly lock in a fight-ending submission: If it does not happen quickly, he can take his time to set up the submission attempts while Mitrione tires himself out trying to scramble back up to the feet.

Betting lines (as of Dec. 4):

Jones: -350 ((Bet Now))

Mitrione: +250 ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Jones via submission

That’s a wrap, folks.

Remember to come check us out after the show for all the latest results, recaps and coverage of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 10 Finale.

What do you think? Now it’s your turn … let us have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for Saturday’s event.