Strikeforce 'Evolution' predictions and quick preview for Dec. 19 event
This Saturday night (Dec. 19) Strikeforce will continue its "Evolution" into one of the premium mixed martial arts brands in the United States when it returns home to the HP Pavilion in San Jose, California with its last event of the 2009 calender year.
The main card, featuring the return of former 185 pound champion and Sanshou master Cung Le, who will make his first appearance in the Strikeforce cage since demolishing Frank Shamrock back in March of 2008, will air live on Showtime beginning at 10 p.m. ET on fight night. Le will match up with hard hitting brawler Scott "Hands of Steel" Smith.
The card will also showcase a lightweight title fight rematch between long time rivals Josh "The Punk" Thomson and Gilbert "El Nino" Melendez in the night's co-main event.
Highly touted Japanese fan favorites "King Mo" Lawal and "Jacare" Souza are set to make their promotional debuts as well. They'll square off against grizzled veterans Mike Whitehead and Matt "The Law" Lindland, respectively.
To help get you better prepared for the festivities, I've laid out some quick analysis and predictions for the four most anticipated main card bouts set to hit the Showtime airwaves on Saturday night.
Check it out:
Unless there is a major drop off in skill level since Cung Le's last fight, this one seems pretty cut and dry. Scott Smith is going to stand and trade with Cung Le, and Cung Le is going to do what he's done to all 6 of the fighters before Smith that have chosen that strategy, which is knock him out.
Scott Smith is a tough-guy, brawler type that loves to get into a good slobberknocker, but he's asking for trouble if he tries to step up to that plate in this fight because Cung Le is without a doubt the most dangerous and multi-dimensional striker he has ever faced.
This isn't Terry Martin or Kyle Noke or even Benji Radach (Smith's last three wins), this is Cung Le. Those guys, for better or worse, are punchers. Cung Le will punch you, but he's not a puncher. He's a striker.
He's going to come at Smith with kicks and punches from angles that he's never dealt with before. He's going to attack Smith's body, his legs, his head, and any other opening he finds. And believe me, he's going to find plenty of openings.
Look for this one to get ugly for Scott Smith in a hurry.
Final prediction: Cung Le by technical knockout.
Strikeforce Lightweight Champion Josh "The Punk" Thomson (16-2) vs. Gilbert "El Nino" Melendez (16-2)
Last time these two former training partners matched up, "The Punk" picked "El Nino" apart on his feet for five rounds en route to a clear cut decision win. It was without a doubt a disappointing night for Melendez, who some people thought had superior stand up and a definite advantage on the ground heading into the contest.
Training with Cung Le and the American Kickboxing Academy crew, I can't imagine Thomson's striking has done anything but improved since that fight. I still expect him to be the better point scorer on fight night in the stand up department.
However, I have Gilbert winning this fight, and here's why. First, his cardio and focus have improved by leaps and bounds (read our interview with him from a couple months back for proof). He seemed to wear down fast in their first fight. Actually, he seemed to almost be tired, or at least off his usual pace, right from the opening bell. That sluggishness clearly allowed Thomson to set the tone early and continue to execute his gameplan for basically the entire fight.
It was really kind of a weird fight, and one that Melendez didn't seem all that interested to be a part of. An energetic, more focused "El Nino" with a bigger gas tank will no doubt change the style of the rematch. There is going to be a lot more takedowns and ground work in this one, as opposed to the first fight, which was basically a one sided kick boxing match.
You can still expect to see plenty of stand up exchanges, but I think this rematch is going to show a lot more of the range of these two fighters. And in the end, I feel that Melendez is the more well rounded of the two.
Everybody knows that Melendez is a talented fighter. The question there for a while seemed to be his dedication. A great example of how much that has changed is to look at last fight where he avenged a previous loss by absolutely destroying Mitsuhiro Ishida. He was out-worked and out-classed by Ishida on New Year's Eve 2007, but things were completely different in the rematch this August.
If the Gilbert Melendez that fought Ishida in August comes out on Saturday night, look for a completely different fight in this one too. There's no denying this one is going to be highly competitive and very close, but my money is on "El Nino." I think he does enough to win a unanimous decision.
This will easily be the fight of the night though.
Final prediction: Gilbert "El Nino" Melendez via unanimous decision.
185 lbs.: Matt "The Law" Lindland (21-6) vs. Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza (10-2)
Jacare is a very exciting prospect for Strikeforce. His jiu jitsu is world class, and he's already made a name for himself with a few nice showings over in Japan. Still though, and I know this won't be the popular opinion, I don't like this match up at all for him.
Lindland is a veteran's veteran. He's been around forever and he knows his way around every inch of that cage. Plus he's done very well against submission specialists in his career. He's clearly not the same fighter that he used to be, but I still feel like this is a favorable match up for him.
Jacare is extremely dangerous from anywhere on the ground, especially off his back, but Lindland has made a living off of negating his opponents strengths with his hard nosed wrestling and ground and pound. Like Souza, Lindland is also very technical on the mat. He just handles his business in a different way.
I just don't see Lindland giving up a submission in this fight. If there was a huge difference in strength then maybe, but Jacare is not going to over power Matt Lindland.
I do think it's certainly possible that old man Lindland could get tired and careless late in the fight, which might open up some submission attempts for Jacare.
But I'm sticking to my guns and taking Lindland by blanket.
Final prediction: Matt "The Law" Lindland via unanimous decision.
265 lbs.: Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal (5-0) vs. Mike Whitehead (24-6)
This is another fight that I sort of have that feeling like the guy that's being featured (Lawal) has a halfway decent chance to lose. I'm not going to pick the upset here, but Mike Whitehead is a dangerous veteran who won't be phased by "King Mo's" flashy entrance or intimidating physique.
Whitehead is nothing spectacular, but he's very smart and he has a ton of experience. This won't be a walk in the park for Lawal. Now, with all that said, Mo's strength, athleticism and wrestling should be enough to win this fight. I'm just thinking this will be more like the Ryo Kawamura fight than the Mark Kerr fight.
If Strikeforce wanted to show off their new star's talent, they certainly picked an odd match up for his debut on Showtime. Like I said, think more Ryo Kawamura than Mark Kerr. Mo will win, but the people seeing him for the first time aren't going to get what they came for.
Final prediction: "King Mo" Lawal by unanimous decision.
That's a wrap.
Remember that MMAmania.com will provide LIVE blow-by-blow, round-by-round coverage of "Evolution," beginning with the SHOWTIME telecast at 10 p.m. ET on Dec. 19. In addition, we will deliver up-to-the-minute quick results of all the under card action as it starts to flow around 8:15 p.m. ET.
It’s going to be a fun night of fights so don’t miss it. And remember to check us out for all the pre, during and post-fight "Evolution" coverage you can handle.
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I am going for another Thompson upset.
I just hope he’s not lying about his foot injury but he never hides anything pre fight. He always talks about his training injuries before going in so yea.
by NNR (formerly NameNotRequired) on Dec 18, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
Le isn't even a small MW.
I hope Thompson wins tomorrow. I like both guys, so it doesn’t matter much. I just like Josh a little bit more than Melendez.
Yes he is
Le could easilt make 170 if he had the discipline… I think I read he walks around at like 190
by PHISH NATION on Dec 18, 2009 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
Picks
Melendez by UD
Smith by KO Round 1
Jacare by Submission Round 2
King Mo by TKO Round 2
"If you’re a fight fan, I don’t know how you don’t think that that card is a great card…." Dana White on UFC 108
20%: Percentage of MMAManiacs buying UFC 108 (I guess the other 80% aren't "real fight fans" according to Dana)
At some point I'd like to see Cung vs Manhoef
No one would be worried about a take down there. Win or lose it could get done for Cung
Took risks betting on the dogs @ 107 - Thank god for Hendricks, Wiman, Palhares and good'ol reliable Jon Fitch UD! Could have been a lot worse.
I don't see anything else besides Manhoef raping him.
The pot shots that lil shammy got him with seemed to rock him a little. Not even competitive in the slightest bit IMHO. I say make Manhoef-lawler. Robbie is gritty despite that bad image of his chin people have from the diaz fight.
by NNR (formerly NameNotRequired) on Dec 18, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
Melvin drilling TD defense with Liddell for 6 months would make him a serious threat in mma!
Melvin would rape both lawler and Cung…but Lawler would put up more of a fight!
Dream fight: Melvin vs. Anderson
Melvin has no ground game, he’s a world class kickboxer who’s competetive against much bigger men but against Andy he’d be taken down and submitted. I agree that Melvin could be great if he worked on his sprawl but he has a much better chance at success in K-1 than MMA as his grappling is horrendous.
"If you’re a fight fan, I don’t know how you don’t think that that card is a great card…." Dana White on UFC 108
20%: Percentage of MMAManiacs buying UFC 108 (I guess the other 80% aren't "real fight fans" according to Dana)
Dream fight?
Really? More like a nightmare if you are a Manhoef fan… I am too, but Andy would kill him
by PHISH NATION on Dec 18, 2009 10:20 PM EST up reply actions
IDK why everone is counting out Scott Smith
This is by far the toughest test of Cungs career.
He had a short training camp and has been away for almost 2 years. He doesnt have serious power in his strikes, especially his punches.
I see Scott Smith putting him away with a Big right hand
dude.....i am
He broke Frank Shamrock's forearm with his kicks.
I do not know how hard his punches are, but how many fighters do you know who break bones with their kicks? With all due respect, I would call that serious power with his strikes, at least with his kicks.
You know, that would make a good fan-poll question...
someone with more knowledge than I should make a poll of what maniacs think is the worst MMA injury they’ve ever seen.
I still pick the cut on Marvin Eastman's head.
For gruesomeness. The Hill leg thing was sick, but it wasn’t the first time I had seen it happen. I was desensitized to that type of injury. Giant gashes on the head make me queezy.
Fuck me pink!!!
Leg brakes make me never want to leg kick again!!! (For a day or two anyway).
How could you prefer to watch head cuts to Corey hill type injuries, thats just wrong…lol
I"m no Ned Flanders punk!!
Corey hill type injuries to head cuts...
My Bad.
It’s a fuck up that you have to read and re-read your posts to check for mistakes incase you leave yourself open to be gang-raped by the spelling police on this site!!
I"m no Ned Flanders punk!!
I said I don't like watching giant head cuts.
I’ve seen lots of broken legs. They don’t bleed(usually). The giant cuts that always get pulled apart by the doc, make me sick.
I bet you were in your element so when the ref lost his hand in Diego's forehead!
I"m no Ned Flanders punk!!
I'm only a part of the spelling police when someone tries to act like they're smarter than another person then they fuck up their spelling
I make my fair share of dumb mistakes as well anyway.
"If you’re a fight fan, I don’t know how you don’t think that that card is a great card…." Dana White on UFC 108
20%: Percentage of MMAManiacs buying UFC 108 (I guess the other 80% aren't "real fight fans" according to Dana)
There was recent one at shooto "revo exchanges" where one guy refused to tap
from a kimura and you could see the elbow blow out in what looked like slow-mo. Not dramatic but vicious simply because you could see the joint get bent to the extreme before giving out and the forearm go limp. I’ve seen plenty of horrible injuries in combat sports from but that one gave me a weird feeling. That and that one guy who split his shin up and down from below his knee to his ankle.
by NNR (formerly NameNotRequired) on Dec 18, 2009 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
Cung will win
Smith is sweet in th6e gut like King Hippo, and cung’s kicks will obliterate his body!
Gilbert will win the decision
lindland WONT beat Jacre
Whitehead is trash!
thanks!
Its true though!
Scott “King Hippo” Smith
lol
Final posting….you can try to argue facts with opinions if you choose So I just wanted to clear the air and state my case as to why I think that Brock is overrated and that he shouldn’t be rated #2 already.
I want to be clear that I am a big proponent of factual evidence. While everybody is entitled to their opinion, opinions can’t be proven, facts can be proven. That’s what makes them a fact; a fact can be proven. Anything that can’t be proven is an opinion. Saying that someone is “more talented”, or “it’s obvious that they are better” or “everybody else thinks that they are better” are opinions. Those type of statements can’t be proven so they are not facts, they are opinions.
There are three (maybe 4) guys that I find to have enough factual evidence to say they should be ranked higher at this time than Brock Lesnar. By “ranked higher” I mean considered as a a better fighter. While Matt Serra was “ranked” higher after he beat GSP, I can’t believe than anyone really considered him a better fighter than GSP. Flukes happen. If you look at the big picture, GSP always had a better record against tougher competition and therefore considered a better fighter…even though Serra held the title during that time.
Also, I seem to be misunderstood about MMA math. For the record… I DO NOT BELIEVE IN MMA MATH. By MMA math I mean saying that: Fighter A beat Fighter B, and Fighter B beat fighter C, so therefore fighter A is better than fighter C. There are myriad examples of why this doesn’t work. I have used the “Shonie beat Serra, Serra beat GSP, and therefore Shonie is better than GSP” as an example of why this does NOT work. There are other factual reasons why this doesn’t work, example: Jardine beat Liddell, Liddell beat Wanderlei, but Wanderlei whipped Jardine. MMA Math doesn’t work. I believe I have been misunderstood on this topic. I can name plenty of other examples of why MMA doesn’t work (Jardine, Forest, Rampage for example).
What I do acknowledge as a factual, valid reasons of rating fighters is wins and losses. This is why I believe there are AT LEAST three (and I believe 4) fighters that can be considered rated higher (or better) than Brock. I am not saying of all time, I am saying right now. I will use their recent fights as the evidence to support this.
Fedor– Why not many contest this. He has beaten more fighters with the awesome records than anyone. Until he loses to someone there is no evidence that he is beatable by anyone. People may have opinions to the contrary but they are just opinions. Until he loses, he has shown that he is currently unbeatable.
Big Nog– This is actually a pretty easy case to make really. Over their last 5 fights, Brock and Nog have the same record (4-1). However Nog has faced better competition and therefore his record over this time demonstrates that he is better and should be ranked higher. In their last five fights, they both have wins over Randy, they both have wins over Herring, and they both have losses to Mir. So far they are equal. Now Brock has a win over Mir, but over their last five fights Nog have a win over Barnett. This is a wash. So the last fight is the determiner. While Sylvia is extremely unpopular he is IN FACT better competition than Kim, who when Brock fought Kim was 2-5. With the same record during their last 5 fights and Nog facing better competition, the ranking goes to Nog.
Mir– This is an interesting one. Again the same record over their lat 5 fights, 4-1. The have each won and lost to each other. So that is a wash. Brock has win over Randy, Mir has a win over Nog. Not using MMA math, I still consider this a wash. Even though Nog beat Randy in a recent fight, I don’t believe 1 fights indicates is who is better (and I am a HUGE Nog fan saying this). I consider Nog and Randy to be equal for the purpose of this discussion. Next fights, Brock ahs a win over Herring, Mir has a win over Kongo. I use even though Herring beat Kongo, I use the same Non MMA math approach and consider this a was as well. I fight (especially the split decision victory for Herring) is not decisive and there fore this is a wash as well. Finally, Brock has a win over a 2-5 Kim and Mir has win of Hardonk. While Hardonk is hardly a world beater, hi is better than Kim. Again, same record over the same amount of fights and a split head to head but Mir has faced tougher competition and gets the hirer ranking.
The fourth fighter is Barnett– He is also 4-1 and has faced better competition, and has only been out of fighting for less than a year.
The other argument that I saw was that Brock is the “champ” is therefore has to be considered better. I have 2 responses to that. 1) Was Matt Serra really better than GSP after his fluke win. No, even though he was the champ. 2) The HW title is paper at this time. For one thing Randy was only considered champ at the time because the UFC wanted to make money. Every other sports promotion in the world has the “champ” fight the interim champ upon his return from a long layoff. For some reason, Randy was called champ upon his return after 15 months off. The interim champ had already been crowned (Nog) and the next fight (between Nog and Mir) was already being promoted as the HW championship, having dropped the "interim"….. until Randy decided to return and the UFC decided to back pedal and give the “title” back to Randy. Why didn’t they let BJ Penn return as champion after he walked away as champion when he beat Hughes the first time? It’s huge discrepancy that is always overlooked. So where does that leave the HW title? In chaos. Until someone (and it could be Brock) does some housecleaning the title is not valid. He might and I will then ,and only then, consider Brock to be a top guy. I can acknowledge this statement as an opinion but is pretty logical.
I’m sure guys like puck head will respond with “that whole essay wasn’t logical” but he won’t argue as to what part he believes isn’t logical. He also has said that saying "it obvious he is better " is a fact or because being “more talented” is factual but really those are subjective statements that can’t be proved.
Finally, as far as the name calling goes. I was not the person that started it. In older posts Puckhead and Jay hammered me insults and name calling. At the time I took the high and called them out for it. Then I finally got worn down and gave them a taste of their own medicine calling the “idiots” and “morons” when Puckhead would respond with to me stating a fact with “it’s not an intelligent fact”. LOL. It’s frustrating when someone doesn’t understand what a fact is (something that can be proved) and an opinion (something that someone believes for whatever reason) and accuses your fact of being less valid than an opinion. So Puckhead/Jay, even though you did set us on this path, I will say I’m sorry for doing what you did. However, I will say if you really are that offended by name calling, maybe internet forums aren’t for you.
Anyway, feel free to argue the facts. I don’t really care about your opinions. Again, a fact can be proved, an opinion is a belief. Fact is over the last five fights Mir, Nog, Fedor, and Barnett have faced better competition and should be ranked higher…regardless of what an internet journalist who is afraid of offending the UFC and getting cut out says.
The StrikerDave…signing out
by StrikerDave on Dec 18, 2009 1:53 PM EST
There is only one problem with that post. The specific argument was if Mir should be ranked higher than Brock. The other HW's were not mentioned in the thread yesterday. In a head to head match up, Brock beat Mir for the strap...
Therefore Brock should be ranked higher than Mir. Why? 1) Brock won = FACT. 2) Mir lost = FACT. 3) Brock is the champion via the process of beating Mir = FACT. Thanks for playing, SD.
my bad
hey OJ, I only put it there to be sure that you guys will see it. If you want to pass a comment to SD… I guess that it will be more appropriated doing so in the thread in question, though.
A page long essay saying facts and opinions are different then he says
“Fact is over the last five fights Mir, Nog, Fedor, and Barnett have faced better competition and should be ranked higher…regardless of what an internet journalist who is afraid of offending the UFC and getting cut out says.”
That is an opinion.
I won’t waste any more time with StrikerDave either, he is set in his ways.
I think if he could press the reset button, he would!!
Fuck it Dave, quit while you can. Just wave the white flag man!!
I"m no Ned Flanders punk!!
1-1
you cant say borck should be ranked higher because he beat mir… mir beat him too. its 1-1
by PHISH NATION on Dec 18, 2009 10:23 PM EST up reply actions
Time
You must have spent a lot of it typing that and its mostly gibberish!! Rankings arent only about resumes. Brock is #2 because those voting only think 1 guy would beat him. Bottom line! End of story! Rankings are about opinions. That is what makes them so fun to discuss. What do you want? an MMA BCS? haha
by PHISH NATION on Dec 18, 2009 10:27 PM EST up reply actions
Hahaha, Jay and TKK. No worries. He called me an idiot yesterday... so I got the grammar hammer ready to pound some lumps on his head. Figuratively speaking, of course.
You see he waited a day to reply when things got 'heated' during the Mir-Carwin thread on the 16th, just read his replys there...
Just more regurgitated name calling and empty threats!!
I"m no Ned Flanders punk!!
OJR
That wasn’t the first time he came on here to argue. I know it probably looked weird that I jumped on him for hardly anything, but that wasn’t the first time it happened. He was also calling Kev an idiot about a month ago. He comes on here to act tough and smart.
jay i put this on other thread but
I’m not FUCKIN Chinese!!! ha ha. Geez! How white does a guy need to be? I’m so uploading a new picture this weekend. I was sunburned from the first big blast of sun all year and being at Craven Country Jamboree (which ill have you know is listed on Wild On’s top 10 places to get laid, #3!) ha ha
by daniel worby on Dec 18, 2009 12:47 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Sweet!
Looking forward to seeing Cung fight, hope he wins in dominating highlight reel fashion.
We don’t see half enough jumping backside kicks, reverse hook kick KO’s etc in my opinion. If anyone can provide this, it’s Le!!
I"m no Ned Flanders punk!!
Those moves usually aren't practical.
But against Scott Smith you can throw the kitchen sink and not worry about being cleverly countered. Scott is a walking highlight reel though, mostly on the losing end, but a living highlight none the less. This fight could/should be fight of the night.
I like Scott Smith
He’s very fun to watch fight. I don’t think he’ll beat Le, but I’ll be rooting for him. That said, if he can somehow get inside a bit on Cung, he’ll have a shot to land that big right. But my guess is that he’ll get picked apart by Le’s kicks repeatedly from the outside; from there it’s not going to be pretty for someone who telegraphs all his punches and has poor footwork and head movement.
True, Dak.
He won’t be able to get close enough to nulify the pretty kicks. I don’t mind Scott at all, he is a gamer. But his talents are extremely limited, even against a dud like Le.
If Scott can counterpunch Dung and get a KO win then he'll automatically become one of my favourites
I have my faith in Scott, he’s had some awesome fights and has proven that he can take a beating before landing a KO hit, if Dung did little training and takes this fight lightly then he’s going down. War Smith, send Dung back to obscurity.
"If you’re a fight fan, I don’t know how you don’t think that that card is a great card…." Dana White on UFC 108
20%: Percentage of MMAManiacs buying UFC 108 (I guess the other 80% aren't "real fight fans" according to Dana)
LOL
That is a good point. I keep forgetting that Cung isn’t the champ. I wonder if this is the first time that has ever happened.
Cung gets headlined
Cung brings more fans to watch fights, plain and simple.
by Dball on Dec 18, 2009 3:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I hope that the title fight is made the main event
Dung Le has had the most hype but I’m hopeful that SF won’t screw over Gilbert and Josh.
"If you’re a fight fan, I don’t know how you don’t think that that card is a great card…." Dana White on UFC 108
20%: Percentage of MMAManiacs buying UFC 108 (I guess the other 80% aren't "real fight fans" according to Dana)
K-1 gloves
What’s up with the K-1 gloves for Kung? Odd to see them if the fight is going to be under mma rules.
Looking forward to the event
If anyone has comcast and dosnt have showtime order now. I have hbo and when I called they said my bill would go down from $99 to $85 because of a special they have. There literally paying me $14 to add on showtime! Hope they have some of the old fights on demand!
by DrewMoney$$$ on Dec 18, 2009 6:16 PM EST via mobile reply actions

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