UFC 104: "Machida vs. Shogun" is set to go down this Saturday, October 24, 2009 from the Staples Center in Los Angeles, Calif., live on pay-per-view starting at 10 p.m. ET.

Remember: MMAmania.com will provide LIVE updates with blow-by-blow, round-by-round commentary of the main card action on fight night, which is slated to air at 10 p.m. ET.

To get us pumped for the event, MMAmania.com Editor and Senior Writer, Jesse Holland (that’s me), will break down the main event matches and take a closer look at the intricacies of each contest.

One of the big stories coming into this event is of course the headlining fight between Lyoto Machida and Mauricio Rua. It's "The Dragon's" first title defense since wiping the floor with "Sugar" Rashad Evans back in May.

Rua fans anticipate the "Old Shogun" will make an appearance this Saturday night. Machida fans are quick to counter that not even the Shogun of 2005 could topple "The Master."

There are still a lot of unanswered questions regarding the future of Cain Velasquez. Is he the next big thing at heavyweight? Or just a talented wrestler with a glass jaw?

Ben Rothwell may help us answer that question on Saturday night.

Also on tap is a "Rumble" between Anthony Johnson and Yoshiyuki Yoshida. Will "Zenko" expose Johnson as a fierce striker who's susceptible to the ground game? Or will the import be shipped back to Japan with his jaw in a Bento box?

There will certainly be a lot to talk about on Sunday morning.

I’ve also included the current betting lines for each fight so that you can get a feel for what the money has to say about the chances of each combatant.

Now, enough with the formalities … let’s get cracking:

205 lbs.: Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida (15-0) vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (18-3)

Backgrounds (last five fights):

Machida:

Record: 5-0
Notable wins: Punishing KO finishes over previously undefeated fighters Thiago Silva and Rashad Evans.
Notable losses: Nada.
Strengths: Pinpoint accuracy, deceptively strong, impossible to hit.
Weaknesses: HTTP 404: Weakness Not Found

Rua:

Record: 4-1
Notable wins: Managed to suck less than Mark Coleman at UFC 93, put Chuck Liddell on ice at UFC 97.
Notable losses: Embarrassed by Forrest Griffin in his UFC debut.
Strengths: Ruthless, deadly strikes, high level jits.
Weaknesses: The fighter that terrorized PRIDE has yet to make an appearance in three fights under the UFC banner.

Dumbass predicts: Anyone else remember the not-so-distant past when some fans were calling the decision-prone Machida "The most boring fighter on the planet?" I recall an interview with Dana White where the UFC prez told the media that Machida would get a title fight when he started finishing people. Well, sometimes you should be careful what you wish for -- especially since we're running out of viable contenders.

I'm not going to spend any time talking about the style of Machida, because it's already been analyzed to death. And Rua? What you see is what you get folks. I've come to accept this fight as a grotesque mismatch. Again, I'm not even looking at styles because I don't think they're relevant in this fight. What you have are two fighters at very different stages of their careers. Machida started slow, fumbling his way through events in Brazil and Japan, having a God-given talent to cripple people but at times a little unsure of how to exploit it.

Over time, "The Dragon" has done what all great athletes do: He's become comfortable with himself and with his competitive surroundings. Not only has he matured as a fighter, he's adapted to the Octagon, something many fighters will tell you is not as easy as it looks. In short, Machida has entered each fight better than the one before it, with a mental focus that is as unflappable as his physical skill set. This is a fighter currently enjoying the prime of his career.

Shogun? Well, that's a different story. Anyone who read my Nostradumbass column predicting his fight against Forrest Griffin knows I was a long time supporter of the former PRIDE Grand Prix champ. Like Wandy before him, he was a terror in Japan, and it was not uncommon for fans and fighters to speculate that an eventual meeting with Fedor Emelianenko in a future Open Weight Grand Prix was looming.

Unfortunately it's true that sometimes the brightest stars burn the quickest, and I think Rua may fall under that category. There has been no evidence since the fall of PRIDE that Shogun will ever be the same fighter he was a few years ago. I'll give him the Griffin fight, since it was his debut, but the Coleman fiasco was a bout so painful to watch, I can barely speak of it without grimacing.

Rua fans point to the Liddell knockout as his rebirth, but let's be honest. Knocking out "The Iceman" after Rampage and Evans did it is like banging the prom queen two years after graduating -- when she's already cranked out two kids and gotten hooked on meth. Shogun has been on a slow and steady decline. Whether it's from the multiple knee surgeries or the simple fact that he just can't get comfortable inside the cage, I haven't seen anything from him in the past two years to indicate he's got the ability to dethrone a fighter who is at the top of his game. Machida's war wagon is firing on all cylinders. Rua's is pulled over on the side of the road, trying to figure out why it keeps overheating.

Betting lines (as of Oct. 23):

Machida: -450 ((Bet Now))

Rua: +325 ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Machida via technical knockout

265 lbs.: Cain Velasquez (6-0) vs. "Big" Ben Rothwell (30-6)

Backgrounds (last five fights):

Velasquez:

Record: 5-0
Notable wins: Abused Cheick Kongo like a pinata he couldn't get open for fifteen minutes at UFC 99.
Notable losses: Perfect through six.
Strengths: Excellent wrestler, big heart, great cardio.
Weaknesses: Got folded up and tucked under the bed like the Norris "Total Gym" every time Kongo made contact.

Rothwell:

Record: 4-1
Notable wins: Kept Chris Guillen in obscurity via elbows at Adrenaline MMA 2.
Notable losses: Toe-tagged by Andrei Arlovski at Affliction: "Day of Bankruptcy."
Strengths: Hits as hard as anyone in the game, ton of experience.
Weaknesses: Questionable wrestling, hasn't fought in almost a year.

Dumbass predicts: Cain Velasquez has a "Brown Pride" tattoo, presumably because he's proud of his Mexican heritage. And why not? It's hard to overcome the many obstacles people are faced with South of the Border. If he wants to be a "Brown" representative to inspire others to achieve while honoring his familia, then I say sound off. The only people who are bothered by his tattoo are insecure white guys. The Battle of Alamo was over in 1836. Seriously, get over it.

Unfortunately my defending of Cain Velasquez ends there. Is he a great wrestler? Yup. Is he a great fighter? Well... Look, I won't deny that Velasquez has some unreasonable expectations put on him, and I think that has a lot to do with the state of the UFC Heavyweight division -- which outside of a few bright stars is surprisingly meek. The Kongo fight is heralded by Velasquez fans as a triumph of heart and determination.

When I hear that Cain has a great chin, I wonder aloud what the criteria is for a chin-o-meter. I always thought a great chin meant you got tagged and didn't even bat an eyelash. Velasquez got tagged and watched his legs do a 7/10 split. The only thing that saved him was the fact that taking Kongo down is like tipping cows: Walk up, extend arms, apply force. I mean for Pete's sake, he was able to take Kongo down from his knees.

Even if we overlook the ability to take a punch, he still was getting hit way too easily. Don't conveniently elevate Kongo to a world class striker either, just to defend Velasquez. I will credit him for having a huge heart, and his instincts are terrific. He was able to utilize his wrestling in his sleep, much like a boxer still throws phantom punches after he's been KOed. Against Kongo, that works. What happens when he faces Gonzaga? Carwin? Lesnar?

Did he dominate the fight? Yes, but I was also surprised that he couldn't finish the Parisian after punching him 200 times in the head. I know, I'm spending a lot of time on one fight, and he's had others where he's looked good. But how excited should I be with his wins over Brad Morris and Denis Stojnic?

Now, Cain can make me look stupid (not hard) by destroying Rothwell. I think his ability to do that rests solely on "Big" Ben. Can Rothwell stuff the shoot? Can he do something other than turtle up when Velasquez does eventually take him down? Rothwell has heavy hands and a ton of experience. My biggest concern is his inactivity. He was 1-1 in 2008 and didn't fight at all in 2009. While I know he has the advantage in striking, I think the layoff will betray him, leaving his timing off just enough for Velasquez to effectively neutralize his offense. Expect a dicey first round for "Brown Pride," followed by a dominant wrestling attack in rounds two and three. It won't be pretty, but hey, a win's a win.

Betting lines (as of Oct. 23):

Velasquez: -300 ((Bet Now))

Rothwell: +220 ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Velasquez by unanimous decision

155 lbs.: Gleison Tibau (19-6) vs. Josh "The Dentist" Neer (25-8-1)

Backgrounds (last five fights):

Tibau:

Record: 2-3
Notable wins: Stifled Rich Clementi and Jeremy Stephens in back-to-back "Fight Nights" this year.
Notable losses: Robbed at pen-point by some pro-Assassin judges in the Melvin Guillard fight at the June TUF Finale.
Strengths: Excellent grappling, comes from a good camp (ATT).
Weaknesses: Inconsistent, lacks that big-name win.

Neer:

Record: 3-2
Notable wins: Gave Din Thomas his UFC pink slip, submitted TUF prodigy Mac Danzig.
Notable losses: Razor-thin barn-burner to Nate Diaz at FN 15, outsmarted by Kurt Pellegrino at UFC 101.
Strengths: Offensive blitzkrieg, gritty, never say die attack.
Weaknesses: Easily baffled by good wrestlers.

Dumbass predicts: Gleeson Tib-oh, Tib-ow, what's his name again? It's hard for me to get excited over a fighter that's not making any noise in the division. What's his biggest accomplishment? Getting robbed in a fight against Melvin Guillard? I can't question his talent, but he's faced Joe Stevenson, Tyson Griffin and Nick Diaz and was unable to beat any of them. I know he's not a title threat, nor will he ever be until he starts finishing guys or putting together consecutive wins. A "Fight of the Night" on Oct. 24 would be a good start.

Now, Josh Neer is no title threat either, but the difference is he makes his fights memorable -- win or lose. I've always loved "The Dentist" as sort of an anti-Guida. He brings the ferocity of a tiger and would rather die than quit, but instead of Guida's "Hey I'm a nice guy inside" routine, Neer always seems to be on the verge of something really evil. Sometimes I like that in a fighter. Mean, nasty, out for blood. Houston Alexander once told me that Josh Neer was someone he looked up to, because he was the toughest fighter he ever saw.

Kurt Pellegrino laid the blueprint for beating Neer, and quite frankly, it's the same blueprint for beating a lot of guys who spend too much time working the bags: Take them down and grind out a decision. It sucks for the fans and gets a lot of criticism from guys like Neer, Nate Diaz and Heath Herring, but if you know how to easily get the win, why not go for it and stay employed?

Now of course the question is, will Tibau follow that blueprint? Can he? Neer stuffs a few takedowns and it's curtains. I don't think Gleison is going to be finished, he's been around for ten years and knows too many ways to stay alive, but Neer will overtake him in the second and third rounds with a relentless attack. He'll be the busier fighter, control the pace and use his aggression to score the unanimous decision victory.

Betting lines (as of Oct. 23):

Tibau: -130 ((Bet Now))

Neer: Even ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Neer via unanimous decision

155 lbs.: Joe "Daddy" Stevenson (30-10) vs. Spencer "The King" Fisher (23-4)

Backgrounds (last five fights):

Stevenson:

Record: 2-3
Notable wins: Executed the perfect gameplan to outpoint Nate Diaz at the TUF 9 Finale.
Notable losses: Tough year for Joe. Losses to Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez -- not long after losing to BJ Penn.
Strengths: Excellent wrestling, very strong, durable.
Weaknesses: Gets close to becoming elite and then goes belly up.

Fisher:

Record: 4-1
Notable wins: Three straight, including a decision over the returning Caol Uno at UFC 99.
Notable losses: Outwrestled by Frankie Edgar at UFC 78.
Strengths: Experience on the big stage, good stand-up.
Weaknesses: Can't stop good wrestling.

Dumbass predicts: I don't think it's outrageous to suggest that Joe Stevenson has entered a stage in his career where he can successfully tool most undercard fighters -- and successfully be tooled against main event fighters. For everyone in between, he will predictable utilize a suffocating wrestling attack to pull out the "W."

Case in point, Spencer Fisher, who is tailor made for the wrestling of Joe "Daddy." I know the temptation is there to coin this a "classic striker vs. grappler" match-up but let's keep it real: There is nothing "classic" about these two fighting. Both Stevenson and "The King" have a combined 22 fights inside the Octagon (11 each) and now they face each other and it's not for a title. It's not even for the chance to earn a number one contender spot. So what's it for? Well, we've pretty much exhausted the lightweight roster finding fights for these two.

Fisher has won three straight but in fairness, Stevenson has been facing a much higher caliber of opponent lately. I give Fisher the edge in striking, but I can't get that image of him being dominated by Frank Edgar at UFC 78, nor the ease in which Caol Uno took him down at UFC 99. To his credit, Joe is a little more savvy with a grounded opponent than I think those two have been in the past and he will control Fisher for most of this fight.

"The King" is too adept at staying afloat to give the bout away and he's just as crafty as Joe on the ground, but all "Daddy" has to do in take him down, execute a modest amount of damage, rinse and repeat. He might give the first round away trying to prove he can stand and bang, but he'll smarten up by the second frame and wrestle his way to a unanimous decision victory.

Betting lines (as of Oct. 23):

Stevenson: -260 ((Bet Now))

Fisher: +200 ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Stevenson via unanimous decision

170 lbs.: Anthony "Rumble" Johnson (7-2) vs. Yoshiyuki "Zenko" Yoshida (11-3)

Backgrounds (last five fights):

Johnson:

Record: 3-2
Notable wins: Devastating KO finishes over Kevin Burns and Luigi Fioravanti.
Notable losses: Got "No Love" from Rich Clementi, went blind in Johnson vs. Burns 1.
Strengths: Crazy striker, extremely large for the division, dynamic.
Weaknesses: Untested on the ground.

Yoshida:

Record: 4-1
Notable wins: Rid the UFC of War Machine, developed a long distance relationship with his balls after a brutal sack-attack from Dan Hardy.
Notable losses: Ugly KO loss to Josh Koscheck in front of American Troops. Ouch.
Strengths: Strong, top level Judoka, aggressive.
Weaknesses: Has a tendency to block punches with his face.

Dumbass predicts: Anthony Johnson knows how to knock people out, and most of the fans love him for it. I too, like guys who finish fights. I also like guys who can finish it someplace other than their feet.

I'm not knocking Johnson, because to this point he's made a very good case for himself as the future of the division. What he needs to do however, is take a fighter like Yoshida, who is a master grappler, and effectively defend his submissions.

The last time I saw him in trouble on the ground, he ended up getting choked out by Rich Clementi. Now I know Larry Pepe from Pro MMA Radio will race in on his horse-drawn chariot with a signed affidavit documenting all the terrible things that attributed to the "Rumble" tapout, but even if he was suffering from a weight cut, swooping in at the last minute or delivering a baby in the parking lot, he still got subbed rather easily.

That to me is a concern heading into this fight. "Zenko" got knocked out pretty easily by Josh Koschek, who isn't exactly known for his dynamic striking. That loss could lead him to abandon the stand-up and just focus on the Judo. The great thing about Judo is that you don't need to shoot for a takedown. If that was the case, I could easily see the athleticism of Johnson keeping him upright.

Judo however, can get your guy to the mat with a trip, a throw, or a toss. I know Yoshida has the skills to execute those moves as well as finish things when they go south. The biggest question is, can he survive long enough to execute said gameplan? I believe he will, and an overconfident and flashy Johnson will make a mistake that he will regret -- once he's finished tapping out or taking a snooze. Upset special baby, "Zenko" all the way!

Betting lines (as of Oct. 23):

Johnson: -350 ((Bet Now))

Yoshida: +250 ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Yoshida via submission

That’s a wrap, folks.

Remember to come check us out after the show for all the latest results, recaps and coverage of "Machida vs. Shogun."

What do you think? Now it’s your turn … let us have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for Saturday’s event.