UFC 103 predictions, preview and analysis

UFC 103: "Franklin vs. Belfort" is set to go down this Saturday, September 19, 2009 from the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas, live on pay-per-view starting at 10 p.m. ET.

Remember: MMAmania.com will provide LIVE updates with blow-by-blow, round-by-round commentary of the main card action on fight night, which is slated to air at 10 p.m. ET.

To get us pumped for the event, MMAmania.com Editor and Senior Writer, Jesse Holland (that’s me), will break down the main event matches and take a closer look at the intricacies of each contest.

One of the big stories coming into this event is of course the headlining fight between Rich Franklin and Vitor Belfort. When "The Phenom" is locked in, he's as dangerous as anyone.

Can "Ace" withstand three rounds from the Brazilian and inch his way up to an eventual rematch with Lyoto Machida?

There are still a lot of unanswered questions regarding the future of Mirko Filipovic. Can "Cro Cop" still hang with the big guns in this division? Or is he a fading star two years past his prime?

Junior Dos Santos may help us answer that question on Saturday night.

Also on tap is the return of Frank Trigg as he makes one last run at the UFC welterweight title. Will Josh Koscheck make him sorry he came back?

There will certainly be a lot to talk about on Sunday morning.

I’ve also included the current betting lines for each fight so that you can get a feel for what the money has to say about the chances of each combatant.

Now, enough with the formalities … let’s get cracking:

195 lbs.: Rich "Ace" Franklin (25-4) vs. Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort (18-8)

Backgrounds (last five fights):

Franklin:

Record: 3-2
Notable wins: Dropped "The Hammer" on Matt Hamill, gave Wanderlei Silva a nip/tuck.
Notable losses: Turned inside out by Anderson Silva, didn't make the final cut against Dan "Hollywood" Henderson.
Strengths: Good cardio, technically sound, underrated jits.
Weaknesses: Not good in the clinch, chin issues (chissues?)

Belfort:

Record: 4-1
Notable wins: Damn near charged with attempted murder following his knockouts over Terry Martin and Matt Lindland.
Notable losses: Pushed around by Dan Henderson at PRIDE 32.
Strengths: Makes E. Honda's hands look slow, strong like bull, experienced.
Weaknesses: Mental preparations/distractions causes severe inconsistency in his performances.

Dumbass predicts: Rich Franklin has been an under-appreciated workhorse for the UFC, and to his credit he's only lost to Lyoto Machida, Anderson Silva, and Dan Henderson. Not exactly tomato cans. He has clean stand-up and a level of technical proficiency in striking that is usually enough to keep most opponents at bay. Unfortunately Vitor Belfort is not most opponents. "The Phenom" has been born again, and while knocking out a flabby Matt Lindland is not enough to carry you into the sunset, his dismantling of Terry Martin before that was just as impressive. Vitor is a natural talent, but I like him more at the smaller weight classes. He's already fast to begin with, and shedding some of that bulk makes him even faster. The key with beating "Ace" -- as it's always been -- is to avoid the stick-and-move game of cat and mouse that lets the former 185-pound champ rack up points on the judges' scorecards and get right in his face. The key to his undoing against Anderson Silva and what almost cost him the bout against Wanderlei Silva was being flustered in the pocket and overwhelmed with an aggressive onslaught. Belfort must do likewise. Forget the ground game. This is all about putting someone to sleep. While Franklin has done great things inside the Octagon, Vitor's destiny is a middleweight superfight against Anderson Silva. "Phenom" via crushing knockout.

Betting lines (as of September 18):

Franklin: -150 ((Bet Now))

Belfort: +120 ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Belfort via knockout

265 lbs.: Junior "Cigano" Dos Santos (8-1) vs. Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (25-6-2)

Backgrounds (last five fights):

Dos Santos:

Record: 4-1
Notable wins: Knocked Fabricio Werdum out of the fight, out of title contention and right out of the promotion.
Notable losses: Put his arm on layaway courtesy of Joachim Ferreira.
Strengths: Merciless kickboxing, huge momentum, aggressive.
Weaknesses: Untested, ground game not quite there yet.

Filipovic:

Record: 3-1 (1 NC)
Notable wins: Turned Mustapah Al-Turk into Patchy the Pirate, kicked Hong Man Gland in the shins.
Notable losses: Dismantled by Cheick Kongo, questionable performance (sans ballsack) opposite Alistair Overeem.
Strengths: Still hits as hard as anyone in the game, fearsome leg kicks.
Weaknesses: Non-existent ground game, looking a bit rotund in his last fight.

Dumbass predicts: Screeeeeech! That was the sound of the Junior Dos Santos Brazilian express train coming to a screeching halt. Can we give him a few more fights before we anoint him the next king of the cage? While I was very impressed by his knockout over Werdum, it was obvious "Vai Cavalo" was overlooking the fight. The proof was in his physical appearance and lackadaisical defense. Now I don't want to take anything away from Junior because he also steamrolled Stefan Struve (who has a decent resume) but my man is facing the mighty Cro Cop! Okay, so lately Filipovic's been more Jerk-o than Mirko, but if you want me to pick between a guy who's won nine fights with one upset versus a former K-1 guy who's fought most of the world's MMA elite and owns a grand prix title, then I'm going Deep Croat. Cro Cop has a huge ego and I know from following his career that he's not going to exit stage left with his tail between his legs. I expect him to come out hungry and dangerous, working the cage like he did against Al-Turk. "Cigano" will look good early and may even put together some nice combinations, but once Croppy finds his rhythm and grooves one, it's back to the scrap heap for Junior.

Betting lines (as of September 18):

Dos Santos: -135 ((Bet Now))

Filipovic: +105 ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Filipovic by technical knockout

170 lbs.: Martin "Hitman" Kampmann (15-2) vs. Paul "Semtex" Daley (21-8-2)

Backgrounds (last five fights):

Kampmann:

Record: 4-1
Notable wins: Spoiled the debut of Carlos Condit, played "Little Drummer Boy" on Alexandre Barros' face.
Notable losses: Tried to get to first base on a date with Nate Marquardt's fist.
Strengths: Heavy hands, deceptive jits, powerful.
Weaknesses: Not many. He's 15-2 and one of those losses was the result of a cut.

Daley:

Record: 3-2
Notable wins: Creamed John Alessio, punished Junior Barata.
Notable losses: Ground game exposed by Jake Shields.
Strengths: Dangerous striker, powerful, knows how to finish.
Weaknesses: Ground game is harder to find than Bin Laden.

Dumbass predicts: Okay, so it's not as Swicktacular as when Mike Swick was fighting, but that doesn't mean it's any less than dangerous for Kampmann on Saturday night. Alright so maybe it is, but that's not my fault, that's Daley's. It's 2009 and you don't have a ground game? The big question here is whether or not "The Hitman" will exploit it. I know the temptation is there to "be a man" and stand and trade, but should I believe that a fighter who turned down TJ Grant because it had the potential to cost him a title shot would be so reckless as to stand and bang with "Semtex?" I don't buy it. I'm not saying Daley is the better striker, but he can end it with one punch. If Kampmann wants to unload his frustration over his last opponent being SIA (Swicking in action), than we could have a decent slugfest on our hands. But since this is a predictions column I predict Marty will feel him out, tie him up and tap him out. Welcome to the UFC Mr. Daley, thanks for coming.

Betting lines (as of September 18):

Kampmann: No Action (opponent change)

Daley: No Action (opponent change)

Prediction: Kampmann via submission

170 lbs.: Josh "Kos" Koscheck (12-4) vs. Frank "Twinkle Toes" Trigg (19-6)

Backgrounds (last five fights):

Koscheck:

Record: 3-2
Notable wins: Knocked "Zenko" Yoshida out twice -- in the same fight.
Notable losses: Slapped around by Thiago Alves, used his chin to block punches from Paulo Thiago.
Strengths: Excellent wrestling, very strong, durable.
Weaknesses: Gets close to becoming elite and then goes belly up.

Trigg:

Record: 4-1
Notable wins: Tapped Edwin DeWees, put a ring over Danny Babcock.
Notable losses: Trigg fought the Lawler -- and the Lawler won.
Strengths: Experience on the big stage, good wrestling.
Weaknesses: Father Time is known for his child abuse.

Dumbass predicts: Guess who's back...back again...Trigg is back...tell a can. I know there are some sentimental feelings going into the return of "Twinkle Toes," but did we forget why he left in the first place? He couldn't beat Matt Hughes and was positively embarrassed by Georges St. Pierre -- and that was when he was four years younger. Normally I wouldn't care, but he's been talking about making another run for the title and I just don't see how he gets past anyone in the top five. Is there a place for him in the UFC? That depends on his performance against "Kos." If he goes out there and makes fights exciting I'll never say a another negative thing about him. However if he turns it into wrestlemania then I'll use that match to go take a dump or download porn. Kocheck doesn't get away scot-free either. He needs to recapture the momentum he had from the Yoshida fight and apply it to his future contests so that he can be considered a more well-rounded fighter. What better way to showcase your new Guerrilla Jiu-Jitsu brown belt than by tapping out Trigg? It would be nice, but I'm predicting a three round battle for position. Unless of course they do what all good wrestlers do lately and try to become great strikers. I want more mixed in my martial arts. And if I sound down on wrestlers then blame Abe Wagner and John Madsen. That TUF 10 fight really annoyed me.

Betting lines (as of September 18):

Koscheck: -300 ((Bet Now))

Trigg: +400 ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Koscheck via unanimous decision

155 lbs.: Hermes Franca (19-7) vs. Tyson Griffin (13-2)

Backgrounds (last five fights):

Franca:

Record: 3-2
Notable wins: Dethroned Spencer "The King" Fisher, fed "Maximus" Aurelio to the lions.
Notable losses: Lost a battle of the banned substances to Sean Sherk.
Strengths: Great jiu-jitsu, experienced, hard to finish.
Weaknesses: A bit flaky, has been known to underachieve.

Griffin:

Record: 4-1
Notable wins: Decision (yawn) wins over Aurelio and Tibau.
Notable losses: The dubious honor of being the only guy to get outboxed by Sean Sherk.
Strengths: Strong, well-rounded, durable.
Weaknesses: Hasn't finished a fight in over three years.

Dumbass predicts: This is a fight that needs to do something special. It's frustrating as an MMA fan to see two guys who are obviously talented spin their wheels in a division that is quickly running out of viable c0ntenders. You want to tell me how deep the 155-pound weight class is? Okay, so who is next for BJ Penn after Diego Sanchez? Gray Maynard? Frank Edgar? Tyson Griffin has all the tools, comes from a great camp, but for some reason can't finish a fight. Stopping Franca would be a huge statement. I don't mean just pounding him out, I mean a Sean "Slammin" Salmon type of KO where the eyes roll back and the body gets frozen solid like they just saw Mania's high school year book photo. Wishful thinking? Probably. And Franca could use a statement fight himself. I'm at the point where I want to see these guys break through to the next level, or I'll be largely apathetic to their future undercard or curtain-jerking fights that have little to no consequence on the division rankings. Get out there and make me care. As for a prediction, all I have to go on is the past performances and to their credit, neither fighter has been submitted. Franca's been stopped once in Shooto, but that shot would have creamed a rhino. They're striking is just so-so and this is probably going to the judges, so I'm forced to choose Griffin for the split.

Betting lines (as of September 18):

Franca: +210 ((Bet Now))

Griffin: -280 ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Griffin via split decision

That’s a wrap, folks.

Remember to come check us out after the show for all the latest results, recaps and coverage of "Franklin vs. Belfort."

What do you think? Now it’s your turn … let us have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for Saturday’s event.