UFC 102 predictions, preview and analysis

UFC 102: "Couture vs. Nogueira" is set to go down this Saturday, August 29, 2009 from the Rose Garden in Portland, Ore., live on pay-per-view starting at 10 p.m. ET.

Remember: MMAmania.com will provide LIVE updates with blow-by-blow, round-by-round commentary of the main card action on fight night, which is slated to air at 10 p.m. ET.

To get us pumped for the event, MMAmania.com Editor and Senior Writer, Jesse Holland (that’s me), will break down the main event matches and take a closer look at the intricacies of each contest.

One of the big stories coming into this event is of course the "Battle of the Legends" between Randy Couture and Antonio Nogueira. How would a loss -- a second straight for both men -- affect their legacies?

A win?

There are still a lot of unanswered questions regarding the UFC middleweight championship. Is Dan Henderson the next in line for Anderson Silva's belt? Or the winner of Nate Marquardt vs. Demian Maia?

Both Hendo and Marquardt had a chance at "The Spider." Would a Maia victory vault him to the top of the list? Or is the UFC still gun-shy after the Thales Leites debacle at UFC 97?

Also on tap is the return of Chris Leben as well as Keith Jardine once again trying to work his way back up the 205-pound ladder.

There will certainly be a lot to talk about on Sunday morning.

I’ve also included the current betting lines for each fight so that you can get a feel for what the money has to say about the chances of each combatant.

Now, enough with the formalities … let’s get cracking:

265 lbs.: Randy "The Natural" Couture (16-9) vs. Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira (31-5-1)

Backgrounds (last five fights):

Couture:

Record: 3-2
Notable wins: Humbled Tim Sylvia, broke Gabe Gonzaga with ease.
Notable losses: Powered down by Liddell, lost to Lesnar via homicidal lunchbox.
Strengths: Neverending cardio, strategies that would shame Greg Jackson, unflappable.
Weaknesses: Fights sporadically, despite his greatness the clock is still ticking.

Nogueira:

Record: 3-2
Notable wins: Miraculous wins over Heath Herring and Tim Sylvia.
Notable losses: Beaten into a living death by the hardly pugilistic Frank Mir.
Strengths: Heart of the proverbial lion, as good as anyone at MMA jits.
Weaknesses: May not have anything left in the chin or stamina department.

Dumbass predicts: It may not be Couture vs. Emelianenko, but it's the next best thing. Wait, it's still 2007, right? This "Battle of the Legends" probably won't be as legendary as it could have been a few years back, and ironically it's the younger (cough) Nogueira who's deteriorated past the point of contendership. Couture still has what it takes to hang with the big boys until he proves otherwise. His last three fights were stellar performances. He slapped around Big Timmy to take the belt, battered Gonzaga to retain it and to date has been the only guy to keep it competitive against Brock Lesnar -- Mir and Herring could not. Yes, Mir won the first bout, but he was manhandled before the miraculous submission. The point is "The Natural" still has the goods, while "Minotauro" is one fight away from a wheelchair. It pains me to say it because I've been a huge Nog fan since the PRIDE days but those are exactly the years that turned him into porridge. He's had some sensational comeback wins, but at what cost? I've seen him get powerbombed by Bob Sapp, grounded and pounded by Fedor, heck I've even seen him block a Cro Cop head kick -- with his head. The Herring fight at UFC 73 was the beginning of the end and I don't see anything left of this once great warrior except a huge heart and the decreasing ability to take punishment. I've also heard rumblings that he's been getting knocked out while sparring in training camp and that is a serious red flag for any competitor. I don't know if Couture will be able to finish him like Mir did, but it will certainly be a lot easier than it was a few years back. I'm taking Captain America via controlling unanimous decision.

Betting lines (as of August 28):

Couture: -180 ((Bet Now))

Nogueira: +150 ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Couture via unanimous decision

205 lbs.: Keith "The Dean of Mean" Jardine (14-5-1) vs. Thiago Silva (13-1)

Backgrounds (last five fights):

Jardine:

Record: 2-3
Notable wins: Sent Chuck Liddell down a steep slope, outworked Brandon Vera.
Notable losses: Couldn't overcome Quinton Jackson, put to sleep by Wanderlei Silva.
Strengths: Merciless leg kicks, powerful striker, unorthodox style.
Weaknesses: Will crumble in a war of wild fists.

Silva:

Record: 4-1
Notable wins: Ended the Houston Alexander experiment.
Notable losses: Lobotomized by Lyoto Machida.
Strengths: Ridiculous stopping power, aggressive, BJJ black belt.
Weaknesses: Despite the body count remains untested in the upper echelon.

Dumbass predicts: This has been a difficult fight to predict because Thiago Silva is still a mystery. I realize that being 13-1 with 10 (T)KO's is pretty cut and dry and losing to Lyoto Machida is now the hip thing to do, but what exactly does the Brazilian bring to the table? We're going to find out against Jardine. I thought Silva's victory over Houston Alexander at UFC 78 was impressive until "Red" Schafer made it look easy at Fight Night 15. I don't put too much stock in his win over James Irvin either since "The Sandman" got washed away by a knee injury in their bout at UFC 71. What I do know is that he has great stopping power, an excellent grappling resume and plenty of heart. What I don't know is if he can implement them against higher level competition. The worst thing that can happen is if he goes out and flattens Jardine -- who has been known to get incredibly narcoleptic on the inside -- because it doesn't prove anything that we don't already know. We know Silva can hit hard -- what I want to see is him put together a dominating performance if I am believe he can elevate himself back into contendership. Why does it matter? Because when you crack into the top five, hitting hard is not enough. "The Dean of Mean" can hit hard too, and he has Greg Jackson by his side. That helped him neutralize the offense of Chuck Liddell and Brandon Vera and he was in it until the end against "Rampage" Jackson. He will likely do the same here if he can commit to the leg kick and avoid being lured into a brawl. I've always been a Silva fan but there are too many "ifs" heading into this bout for me to make it a lock -- including how he rebounds from the first loss of his career in one of the biggest pay-per-views in recent history at UFC 94. This fight is going to speak volumes about the direction of Silva going forward.

Betting lines (as of August 28):

Jardine: -155 ((Bet Now))

Silva: +125 ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Jardine by unanimous decision

185 lbs.: Chris "The Crippler" Leben (18-6) vs. Jake Rosholt (5-1)

Backgrounds (last five fights):

Leben:

Record: 2-3
Notable wins: Amazing finish over Terry Martin, made Alessio Sakara sleep with the fishes.
Notable losses: Outpointed by Kalib Starnes and played Marco Polo against Michael Bisping.
Strengths: Heavy hands, fearless, good chin.
Weaknesses: Non-existent strategy, doesn't adapt well, unfocused.

Rosholt :

Record: 4-1
Notable wins: Four straight TKO wins.
Notable losses: Cooled off by Dan Miller via guillotine choke in his UFC debut.
Strengths: Wrestling phenom, knows how to finish.
Weaknesses: Still a little green.

Dumbass predicts: If you stand and bang with Chris Leben, there is a pretty good chance you're going to sleep -- unless of course your name is Anderson Silva, who still hasn't gone back to Japan where the competition is a little easier. Unfortunately that pretty much sums up the gameplan of "The Crippler." Michael Bisping showed that you can beat the former TUF bad boy with a stick and move strategy that may be unpretty but is nevertheless effective. The good news is that I don't expect that from Jake Rosholt, who is likely to use this bout as his statement fight to prove he belongs in the UFC despite the loss to Miller. The NCAA champ is an amazing wrestler and hasn't let any of his first five wins go to the judges scorecards. This time will be no different. Like Rosholt, Leben will have something to say on Saturday night to help cleanse the palate of the bitter Michael Bisping aftertaste. Those not hung up on the loss to "The Count" may still be down on him for getting popped for performance-enhancing drugs. I also can't overlook the fact that Leben has been out of action for almost a year. Add those up and I predict a reckless performance that will find a frustrated Crippler controlled on the ground and eventually pounded out. It wouldn't surprise me if he rocks Rosholt in the opening minutes, but that may be the only offense we see from this fading star. The world of mixed martial arts continues to evolve. Chris Leben I predict, does not.

Betting lines (as of August 28):

Leben: -155 ((Bet Now))

Rosholt: +125 ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Rosholt via TKO

185 lbs.: Nate "The Great" Marquardt (28-8-2) vs. Demian Maia (10-0)

Backgrounds (last five fights):

Marquardt :

Record: 3-2
Notable wins: Went Jeff Speakman on Wilson Gouveia, sent Marty Kampmann to welterweight.
Notable losses: Knocked senseless by Anderson Silva, robbed by Thales Leites.
Strengths: Good hands, good jits, as well rounded as they come.
Weaknesses: Gets close to being truly "Great" and then loses.

Maia :

Record: 5-0
Notable wins: Subbed Chael Sonnen and some TUF vets.
Notable losses: None.
Strengths: You line them up, he'll tap them out.
Weaknesses: Still too many unknowns -- like what happens when he gets punched in the face.

Dumbass predicts: If mixed martial arts has a grappling Mount Submore, we can go ahead and put four faces of Demian Maia on it. What is there to say about this crafty Brazilian? He owns the submission game. Fighting him is like playing Monopoly against someone who has a hotel on every other property. If you roll the dice and avoid landing in his territory, you have a chance. I think Marquardt might be that guy. The Almeida submission loss back in Pancrase still bothers me, but I know "The Great" has come a long way since then. He's also ridiculously strong -- strong enough to power himself out of trouble if he can react fast enough. That to me is the key in this fight. If Nate can be cognizant of where he is at all times and not be baited into a submission trap like Sonnen was, he could very well survive -- and win this contest. I favor Marquardt on the feet but it's up to him to keep it there. Maia says he has hands but when you grapple like he does I can understand why they've been decommissioned. Trying to call them back into service on Saturday night is a bad idea so as expected this will be three rounds of Marquardt trying to stay off the mat. I think he will while doing just enough to sway the judges and bounce Maia out of title contention. It might not be the most exciting bout in recent memory, but that's going to be something that plagues the UFC when they have grapplers as good as Maia populating it.

Betting lines (as of August 28):

Marquardt: -160 ((Bet Now))

Maia: +130 ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Marquardt via split decision

205 lbs.: Krzysztof "The Polish Experiment" Soszynski (18-8-1) vs. Brandon "The Truth" Vera (10-3)

Backgrounds (last five fights):

Vera :

Record: 2-3
Notable wins: Mike Patt and Reese Andy -- if you want to consider those "notable."
Notable losses: Ugly losses to Tim Sylvia, Dan Miragliotta and Keith Jardine.
Strengths: Great Muay Thai, fast, underrated jits.
Weaknesses: Disorganized and non-committal in recent fights.

Soszynski :

Record: 5-0
Notable wins: Showed power with a KO over Andre Gusmao, subbed Brian Stann.
Notable losses: None.
Strengths: Strong, well-rounded, fast learner.
Weaknesses: Not quite as technical as he thinks he is.

Dumbass predicts: I've got to give credit to Krzysztof Soszynski, I didn't think he looked that good on TUF and I certainly didn't think he would have been vaulting himself up the ladder this quickly. That's a credit to how fast of a learner he is and how good his camp is. Now that I've given him his due, I can say without bias that he's going to get punished by Vera. "The Truth" is that Vera is a much better competitor than his last few performances have indicated and when I last spoke to him he told me that he is refocused, dedicated and hungrier than ever. That's bad news for "The Polish Experiment,' who will likely crumble under the Muay Thai of Vera. I'm afraid the recent success of Soszynski may have led him to believe that he's a better striker than he is and while he's good, I think Vera is on a different level. They'll have the requisite feeling-out process but once Vera locks it in you can forget about this one. While I'm leaning towards a TKO, it would not come as a surprise if Vera drops him and follows him to the mat where after a mad scramble ends up choking him out. Soszynski has good hands and good submissions, but not good enough to stop the resurgent Brandon Vera. "The Truth" in 2010! Believe!

Betting lines (as of August 28):

Vera: -170 ((Bet Now))

Soszynski: +140 ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Vera via TKO

That’s a wrap, folks.

Remember to come check us out after the show for all the latest results, recaps and coverage of "Couture vs. Nogueira."

What do you think? Now it’s your turn … let us have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for Saturday’s event.