UFC 99 predictions, preview and analysis

UFC 99: ‘The Comeback’ is set to go down this Saturday, June 13, 2009 from The Lanxess Arena in Cologne, Germany, live on pay-per-view (PPV) starting at 3p.m. ET.

Remember: MMAmania.com will provide LIVE updates with blow-by-blow, round-by-round commentary of the main card action on fight night, which is slated to air at 3 p.m. ET (replay will air at 10 p.m. ET).

To get us pumped for the festivities, MMAmania.com Editor and Senior Writer Jesse Holland (that’s me) will break down the main event matches and take a closer look at the intricacies of each contest.

With this event titled "The Comeback," it's not a stretch to say that both main event participants (Rich Franklin and Wanderlei Silva) are at a crossroads in their careers. A loss for either man could spell certain doom for their chances of headlining a future PPV.

Dan Hardy and Marcus Davis are seemingly trying to one-up Matt Serra and Matt Hughes in the trash talking department. We know they're on equal footing in the insults department, but are they evenly matched inside the cage?

One match up I don't think is evenly matched has to do with a certain Croatian cop. I'm glad he's back. But is this do-or-die for his career? The cage was not friendly to Zagreb's chosen one in 2007 -- let's see if he's learned from that experience.

It's going to be a great night of fights -- with a whopping six stellar bouts guaranteed to make the televised portion of the show.

I’ve also included the current betting lines for each fight so that you can get a feel for what the money has to say about the chances of each combatant.

Now, enough with the formalities … let’s get cracking:

195 lbs.: Rich "Ace" Franklin (24-4) vs Wanderlei "The Axe Murderer" Silva (32-9-1)

Backgrounds: Silva — a former Pride FC middleweight champion (205 pounds) — has lost two of his last three fights inside the Octagon and four of his last five. It’s quite a slump for the wrecking machine who did not lose in 18 straight fights from 2000 to 2004. It’s important to point out that the Brazilian has not been fighting any cream puffs of late, losing to Mirko Cro Cop, Dan Henderson, Chuck Liddell and Quinton "Rampage" Jackson. However, the method in which he is losing — by vicious knockout — has many wondering if the best days are behind the 32-year-old slugger. Franklin recently dropped a split decision to Dan Henderson at UFC 93 last month. The former math teacher sustained a grizzly eye injury from an accidental poke, which required surgery to repair. He currently does not have a home in any one division, bouncing back-and-forth between 185 and 205 pounds. And it’s unclear where a win against Silva would place him in either weight class. Regardless, "Ace" has been nearly perfect inside the Octagon with the exception of his two losses to Anderson Silva and recent defeat to Henderson.

Dumbass predicts: There was a time in the not-so-distant past when I would have figured Rich Franklin to be cannon fodder for Wanderlei Silva. My, how things have changed. Wandy's been on a steady decline since 2006 and his "button" has been pushed one too many times for me to think he has a chance here against Franklin. You can't throw in the towel every time a fighter gets knocked out, but three times in a little over two years? In order to appreciate how fast Wandy has deteriorated, you have to first understand the kind of career he had in PRIDE. At one point he had won 16 fights in a row and ended 14 of those by (T)KO. It was amazing to watch and part of the reason why he was so feared in Japan. He has a ferocious, in-your-face style and a humiliating clinch, but Franklin is not going to be spending any time in there. Unlike Silva, Franklin still has the goods. His body hasn't failed him (yet), and his losses to Anderson Silva are hardly a knock on his ability. Yes, he had a misstep against Henderson, but wrestling has always been Franklin's weakness -- and Wandy is no wrestler. I expect Silva to come out and stalk Franklin for the first round while "Ace" picks his shots with squeaky clean striking. "The Axe Murderer" will try to live up to his name in the second and get buckled by a Franklin counterpunch. It won't be bedtime, but Silva's going to sleep.

Betting lines (as of June 12):

Franklin: -145 ((Bet Now))

Silva: +105 ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Franklin via knockout

265 lbs.: Cain Velasquez (5-0) vs. Cheick Kongo (14-4-1)

Backgrounds: The red hot Kongo comes into this contest (for an injured heath Herring) after dismantling Antoni Hardonk at UFC 97: "Redemption" just over a month ago, stopping the Dutch kickboxer in the second round via technical knockout — the first TKO loss in Hardonk’s career. It marked the fifth win in the last six fights for the Parisian. He dropped a split decision to Heath Herring back at UFC 82: "Pride of a Champion" in March 2008, which temporarily derailed his chances of competing for a division title. Kongo — who now trains at Wolfslair Academy in England alongside Michael Bisping, Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and others — has looked unbeatable ever since, and could put a boot on the Velasquez hype wagon. The American Kickboxing Academy (AKA) disciple most recently mugged Denis Stojnic at UFC Fight Night 17 for a round and a half en route to a second round technical knockout victory. It marked just the first time that a Velasquez opponent has made it out of the opening frame. The wrestling phenom revealed after the fight that he was disappointed with the dominating performance and vowed to come back better than ever in his next appearance.

Dumbass predicts: Velasquez is a former two-time All-American wrestler from Arizona State University. Kongo got taken down at will by Carmelo Marrero. I could probably end my prediction right here and have made my point. UFC 64 wasn't exactly yesterday and Kongo has improved, but what wrestler has he faced since then? Part of becoming a champion in mixed martial arts is understanding you own strengths and weaknesses as well as the strengths and weaknesses of your opponent. If Velasquez can do this, he can wrap this one up without breaking a sweat. Kongo is a striker -- and a very good one. But only two of his 14 wins have come by way of submission (ironically enough one was a heel hook). How much time Velasquez wants to stay on his feet will likely determine what kind of chances Kongo has of winning -- unless by some miracle Kongo figured out how to be effective from guard. Like Miguel Torres said, this should be a coming-out party for Velasquez. Kongo's too tough to finish, but a mixture of takedowns and ground-and-pound will see Velaquez cruise to a unanimous decision win.

Betting lines (as of June 12):

Velasquez: -180 ((Bet Now))

Kongo: +140 ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Velasquez via unanimous decision

170 lbs.: Mike "Quick" Swick (13-2) vs. Ben "Killa-B" Saunders (7-0-2)

Backgrounds: Swick is a former middleweight contender who recently made the move down to 170 pounds. He scored a "quick" technical knockout of Jonathan Goulet at UFC Fight Night 16: "Fight for the Troops" back in December 2008. It was the first stoppage for the American Kickboxing Academy standout in more than two years and the first for him as a welterweight. He is currently undefeated (3-0) in the new division with wins over Goulet, Marcus Davis and Josh Burkman. "Killa-B" is coming off a lopsided first round ass-kicking of Brandon Wolff at UFC Night 16: "Fight For the Troops" back in December 2008. The former TUF 6 competitor channeled the Muay Thai skills of UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva to totally rout the Hawaiian in his Octagon debut. Saunders has been perfect (3-0) since his stint on the mixed martial arts reality series, defeating Ryan Thomas at UFC 87: "Seek and Destroy" in August and Dan Barrera via unanimous decision at TUF 6 Finale.

Dumbass predicts: Saunders and his "blades" have looked good recently. Really good, which is probably why so many people are on the Killa-"B"andwagon instead of the house that Swick built. While four of his last five fights have gone to a deSwision, "Quick" has beaten much better competition than Saunders has. I'd be interested to see how Saunders holds up under duress, or how well he can withstand a Swick to the head. Saunders jab does worry me, as does his Thai clinch, but Swick is explosive and lightning-fast. Whether or not he can get inside the pocket and Swick his spots remains to be seen, but I think his experience, his aggression and the overall Swick factor gives him a hard-fought but decisive unanimous decision victory.

Betting lines (as of June 12):

Swick: -240 ((Bet Now))

Saunders: +180 ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Swick via unanimous decision

170 lbs.: Marcus "The Irish Hand Grenade" Davis (16-4) vs. Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy (21–6)

Backgrounds: Davis took on Chris Lytle at UFC 93: "Franklin vs. Henderson" on Jan. 17 after "Lights Out" called him out after defeating Paul Taylor at UFC 89: "Bisping vs. Leben" in October 2008. "The Irish Hand Grenade" went on to win the 170-pound clash via split decision, setting a modern day record for combined total strikes in a professional mixed martial arts bout. Prior to the win, the heavy-handed Davis — a former professional boxer — earned a slick second round submission win over Paul Kelly at UFC 89. The former contestant on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 2 boasts eight wins in 10 fights for the promotion, which is considerably more than Hardy’s two wins in as many performances. Perhaps that’s the reason Davis intends to smash the relative UFC newcomer’s face into dust when they meet inside the Octagon in Cologne. On the other hand, Hardy may feel that he can do some smashing of his own after wrecking Markham with a first round knockout blow that put the Miletich-trained fighter out for the count. "The Outlaw" also has a split decsion win over the venerable veteran Akihiro Gono to his credit, highlighting that the blooming British star has not had an easy road since his debut for the organization.

Dumbass predicts: There are a lot of backstories here about Ireland, the pride of the UK, Mohawks, etc. Frankly I could give a damn about any of them -- I just want to see these two throwdown. Both Davis and Hardy have been on a tear since 2006. The "Irish Hand Grenade" is 13-1 while "The Outlaw" is 10-1. On paper they look pretty evenly matched but what is often overlooked is the submission game of Davis, who has seven tapouts during that span compared to Hardy's one. That, coupled with Davis' boxing resume and I think this is a fight he controls from top to bottom. Hardy is a gamer and has good hands, but in my opinion is a notch below Davis in terms of technical proficiency and power. There is a trend in MMA that sees a lot of elder statesman deteriorate as they get older but Davis is just the opposite, he continues to get better with age.

Betting lines (as of June 12):

Davis: -150 ((Bet Now))

Hardy: +200 ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Davis via knockout

155 lbs.: Spencer "The King" Fisher (22-4) vs. Caol "Uno Shoten" Uno (25-11-4)

Backgrounds: After seven consecutive UFC fights, Uno left the organization in 2003 to compete in K-1 Hero’s. During his UFC tenure, Uno fought the cream of the crop in the lightweight division, including BJ Penn (loss, draw), Jens Pulver (loss), Hermes Franca (loss), Din Thomas (win) and Yves Edwards (win), among others. He amassed a respectable record (3-3-1) during that time. And he’s kept the good competition coming ever since. Uno recently entered the 2008 DREAM Lightweight Grand Prix, pulling off a shocking upset of early tournament favorite Mitsuhiro Ishida courtesy of a submission (rear naked choke). He would go on to lose to submission wizard and eventual runner up, Shinya Aoki, via unanimous decision in the next round. Fisher most recently defeated Shannon Gugerty via submission (triangle choke) at UFC 90: "Silva vs. Cote" back in October 2008. It was his second straight win -– "The King" outpointed the heavy-handed Jeremy Stephens on all three judges scorecards at The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 7 Finale in June 2008. The Miletich Fighting Systems veteran has won three of his last five bouts, including a rematch against Sam Stout at UFC Fight Night 10 more than one year ago.

Dumbass predicts: These two guys have been around the block and like a lot of Saturday's match ups, this one is pretty evenly matched. I like Fisher's never-say-die attitude and he's a beast on his feet, but watching him go limp against Frank Edgar's wrestling attack at UFC 78 said a lot about his chances here. My only question is, will Uno be able to commit to the wrestling game for the entire bout? If he can, it will be a one-sided (and perhaps boring) fight that sees little-to-no action. However it's not unheard of for Uno to change gears mid-fight -- and suffer for it. The two biggest factors here are Fisher's guard and Uno's head. Whichever fails first will likely decide the winner. I hate to use buzzwords but it's all about the intangible qualities in this one. As a result, I'm leaning towards Fisher -- but not by much.

Betting lines (as of June 12):

Fisher: -225 ((Bet Now))

Uno: +175 ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Fisher via split decision

265 lbs.: Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (24-6-2) vs. Mustapha Al-Turk (6-4)

Backgrounds: Filipovic had fallen on hard times since his winning the PRIDE Open Weight GP over two years ago, losing two of five fights and looking listless in the process. He started things off with a bang, stopping Eddie Sanchez in his UFC debut, but a highlight reel knockout loss to Gabriel Gonzaga and a rib-crushing defeat to Cheick Kongo put his UFC career on ice. After two wins in Dream (and a no contest with bitter rival Alistair Overeem), the former Croatian Cop elected to have knee surgery to correct a nagging injury and now declares that he is free of the physical and mental distractions that have plagued him over the past few years. Al Turk — who was originally slated to face undefeated American Top Team (ATT) heavyweight Todd Duffee, fights out of the famous London Shoot gym in the United Kingdom. He came up short in his debut against Cheick Kongo at UFC 92 after a successful run in Europe on the Cage Rage circuit. In fact, he has six wins in seven attempts for the promotion and was riding a two-fight win streak before getting dismantled at "The Ultimate 2008″. He is a pretty well-rounded fighter with serviceable boxing and solid grappling skills -– good enough to earn him the British Cage Rage heavyweight title.

Dumbass predicts: I was so happy to hear that Cro Cop was coming back to the UFC. I was even happier to see him all loosey-goosey at the weigh ins. Perhaps he's finally got his mental game in check? For my money, it's never been about the skill. Filipovic is still one of the best, but that KO to Gonzaga clearly changed him going forward. Now he looks to have put that all behind him and come back to finish what he started. Where he goes from here is anyone's guess, but I fully expect him to railroad Al-Turk in this bout. I'm not interested in his wrestling because if he couldn't use it to stymie Kongo, then it won't make much difference here. And quite frankly, I can't pick against a guy who has faced the caliber of fighter that Cro Cop has. Emelianenko, Barnett, Nogueira, the list goes on. For Al-Turk its McSweeney, Turner, Tedoradze. Not quite the same. I would expect Cro Cop to soften him up with some leg kicks only to drop him with a straight left followed by a barrage of his trademark hammer fists. KO Cop!

Betting lines (as of June 12):

Filipovic: -400 ((Bet Now))

Al-Turk: +250 ((Bet Now))

Prediction: Filipovic via technical knockout

That’s a wrap, folks.

Remember to come check us out after the show for all the latest results, recaps and our coverage of UFC 99: "The Comeback."

What do you think? Now it’s your turn … let us have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for Saturday’s event.