Strikeforce: 'Shamrock vs Diaz' predictions, preview and analysis

Strikeforce: 'Shamrock vs Diaz' is set to go down this Saturday, April 11 from the HP Pavilion in San Jose, California, live on Showtime starting at 10p.m. ET.
Remember: MMAmania.com will provide LIVE updates with blow-by-blow, round-by-round commentary of the main card action on fight night, which is slated to air at 9 p.m. ET.
To get us pumped for the festivities, MMAmania.com Editor and Senior Writer Jesse Holland (that’s me) will break down the main event matches and provide an unbiased and objective examination of each contest.
Well, not really, but you will be treated to a smörgåsbord of hot air, elitism and conjecture. And for this edition of Nostradumbass, I'm going to depart from my usual cock-and-bull routine in favor of a neat and orderly format.
I've also included the current betting lines for each fight so that you can get a feel for what the money has to say about the chances of each combatant.
And if you just so happen to have a few bucks to throw down on your favorite fighter, far be it from me to stop you from clicking on the handy BetUS link I so conveniently provided.
Now, enough with the pillow talk … at least for the time being.
Let’s get cracking:
Catchweight of 179 lbs.: Frank Shamrock (23-9-2) vs. Nick Diaz (18-7)
Backgrounds: Shamrock — who defeated Diaz’ mentor Cesar Gracie in just 21 seconds back in 2006 – is coming off more than a full year on the sidelines. After obliterating Phil Baroni at 'Shamrock vs. Baroni' in June 2007, Shammy's been on the shelf courtesy of a third round technical knockout loss to current Strikeforce champion Cung Le last March, in which his forearm was shattered while blocking a head kick. Diaz, on the other hand, has fought three times during that span, winning all three matches by TKO. It will be the first fight for the Stockton, Calif., native since scoring a second round technical knockout victory over Thomas Denny at EliteXC: "Unfinished Business" back in July 2008. Despite the weight difference, Diaz has done well in the past as a welterweight and even holds a knockout win over the last reigning EliteXC middleweight champion, Robbie Lawler. He also underwent surgery to remove scar tissue from his face to help reduce the possibility of a fight-ending cut.
Dumbass predicts: Like him or loathe him, Shammy is one of the few holdovers from Generation 1 that is still relevant to the current fight scene. While the jury is still out on whether he's now (or ever was) one of the greats, you can't dispute his ability to sell a fight. He's the Grandmaster of in-ring antics -- so much so that he could sue Rashad Evans for royalties. And Diaz is no slouch either, especially with the Gracie feud as motivation. Yet somewhere beneath all the heat and all the hype lies one of the finest mixed martial artists of yesteryear. It was a shame to see Shamrock spend so much of his prime beating on lesser talent and resting on his laurels. He no longer has the knees to be competitive on the ground, so I expect him to fight Diaz exactly the same way he fought Cung Le last year -- with exactly the same bravado. And Diaz will be happy to oblige. If Diaz were to fight intelligently he would chop away at Sham's brittle knees but since this is all about being macho it's going to be a straight-up slugfest. Round one will likely be a circus as the two try to out-clown one another, but Diaz won't be able to do enough long term damage with his rat-tat-tat striking. Shamrock will slowly but surely chip away and eventually take control at some point in the last stanza. Diaz is too tough to get stopped in a three rounder so I expect Shamrock to make it a clean sweep on the judge's cards.
Betting lines (as of April 10):
Shamrock: -180 ((Bet Now))
Diaz: +140 ((Bet Now))
Prediction: Shamrock via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Gilbert "El Nino" Melendez (14-2) vs. Rodrigo Damm (8-2)
Backgrounds: Melendez has been out of action since losing his title in a decisive unanimous decision to current champion Josh "The Punk" Thomson last June. The loss was only the second of his sparkling 16-fight career, which includes notable wins over Hiroyuki Takaya, Clay Guida, Tatsuya Kawajiri and others. His only other defeat was a unanimous decision loss to Mitsuhiro Ishida at Yarennoka on New Years Eve 2007. His opponent is a Brazilian submission specialist and Sengoku veteran who holds a notable win over current Bellator Fighting Championship lightweight contestant Jorge Masvidal, as well as submission victories over Kulter Gill, Santino Defranco and Naoki Seki. Thus far in his illustrious career Damm has finished five of his eight victims by way of tapout, including four of those by rear naked choke. However, it’s been a while since Rodrigo last saw action. In fact, he hasn’t competed since August of last year, losing for only the second time in his career at Sengoku: "Fourth Battle" by first round submission to cagey veteran Eiji Mitsuoka.
Dumbass predicts: Melendez was originally set to rematch Thomson for the gold until "The Punk" was forced to bow out with a leg injury. If you thought Melendez was fired up before, he's got to be positively livid by now. "El Nino" wants his belt back, and fighting for an Interim title may seem like more of an insult than an honor for the simple reason that he feels like he only coughed up the belt because of a lackluster performance against Thomson in their first go-round. Damm has skills -- and I like his style because he finishes fights. Unfortunately for him, when Melendez is on, he's as good as any lightweight out there. Under normal circumstances I would expect this to be more competitive, but coming in on such short notice -- against an opponent of Melendez' caliber -- makes this an easy prediction. Expect Damm to come out game only to be overwhelmed by an aggressive and relentless Melendez. A first round stoppage would not surprise me.
Betting lines (as of April 10):
Melendez: No action (late replacement bout)
Damm: No action (late replacement bout)
Prediction: Melendez via TKO
140 lbs.: Cristiane "Cyborg" Santos (6-1) vs. Hitomi "Girlfight Monster" Akano (14-5)
Backgrounds: Cyborg — the wife of former Pride FC fighter Evangelista "Cyborg" Santos — burst onto the scene in May of 2008 with a dominating performance against Shayna Baszler in her debut under the EliteXC banner. 6-1 overall, Santos has four brutal TKO wins to her credit. Like her husband, she’s a product of the Brazilian Chute Boxe Academy, a style that’s evident as soon as she steps foot in the cage. Her most recent fight was in October 2008 on the EliteXC: "Heat" card. She out-pointed Yoko Takahashi on the judges scorecards for a unanimous decision. Akano is just the opposite. The wily veteran is a submission specialist and former standout on Japan’s national judo team -- and has yet to be finished in 19 career fights. The Japanese import is riding a three fight win streak and has ended 11 of her 14 victories by way of tapout.
Dumbass predicts: On paper this is Akano's fight. She has more experience, she fights more frequently and her submissions are off the chart. So why am I picking Santos? Hitomi is no spring chicken -- she'll be 35 in just three months -- and she's starting to look her age. "Girlfight Monster" may have won three straight, but they were far from dominating performances. Hari had a losing record and Yabushita dumped her on the ground and was putting it to her before getting careless and sticking her leg into Akano's guard. True, Cyborg's lone loss was a submission, but it was also her first pro fight back in 2005. Since then, Santos has improved tenfold, leaving a trail of battered opponents in her wake. Akano will be in survival mode from the opening bell as Cyborg stalks her and stuffs her into a bento box late into the first.
Betting lines (as of April 10):
Santos: -550 ((Bet Now))
Akano: +325 ((Bet Now))
Prediction: Santos via TKO
185 lbs.: Benji "Razor" Radach (19-4) vs. Scott "Hands of Steel" Smith (14-5)
Backgrounds: Smith battled fellow UFC veteran Terry Martin on the last Strikeforce card of 2008 back in November. "Hands of Steel" lived up to his nickname on that night by knocking out the hard hitting Martin less than 30 seconds into the first round. Before that impressive showing, Smith took on division title holder "Ruthless" Robbie Lawler in EliteXC last May. The two 185-pound sluggers went back and forth for nearly three rounds before an inadvertent poke to the eye from Lawler caused a premature stop to the title fight. The promotion ordered an immediate rematch, and the two went at it again two months later at "Unfinished Business." This time, however, Smith was handed the fifth loss of his career by second round technical knockout. Radach was also mixing it up in Elite XC, debuting with an impressive second round technical knockout over former division champion Murilo "Ninja" Rua last October. Before joining the Pro Elite roster in 2008, Radach competed six times under the International Fight League (IFL) banner. After winning his first five fights for the promotion, he came up on the short end of the stick at the World Grand Prix Finals in December of 2007 against Matt Horwich, which is the lone blemish on his record over his last seven fights. Radach also has some Octagon experience to his credit as well. In 2002, he competed three times in the UFC, putting together an even record (1-1-1) against Steve Berger (No Contest), Nick Serra (win) and Sean Sherk (loss).
Dumbass predicts: If any bout has the potential to be the fight of the night, it has to be this one. I've always enjoyed Scott Smith because he comes to fight and I was sorry to see him leave the UFC, even in spite of his 1-3 record under the Zuffa umbrella. He managed to do alright for himself outside of the promotion, and his fight against Robbie Lawler helped garner a lot of interest from the casual fan who was watching CBS to catch a glimpse of Kimbo Slice last May. Like the main event, I don't anticipate much of a ground game from guys nicknamed "Hands of Steel" and "Razor." Similar to Smith, Radach likes to throw hands, ending nearly 80 percent of his wins via (T)KO. Hopefully neither man gets overzealous and we get a technical display or at the very least a clean stand-up battle. I'm favoring Smith here because he's been the busier of the two, going to war four times in 2008 compared to Radach's one. He's also coming off the momentum of a brutal knockout of Terry Martin, whereas the "Ninja" win for "Razor" seems like ancient history. Three rounds of action in a close battle that Smith pulls out with a busier third round.
Betting lines (as of April 10):
Smith: +120 ((Bet Now))
Radach: -160 ((Bet Now))
Prediction: Smith via split decision
265 lbs.: Brett "The Grim" Rogers (8-0) vs. Ron "Abongo" Humphrey (5-0)
Backgrounds: Rogers made a name for himself fighting under the EliteXC banner last year, posting three straight first round knockouts over Ralph Kelly, James Thompson and Jon Murphy. The Team Bison product lobbied hard for a fight with Kimbo Slice following the Murphy fight in May, but never succeeded in convincing the promoters to book the match before the company went under in October 2008. He has heavy hands, ending all eight of his fights via strikes. Ron Humphrey was a participant on BET’s reality series "Iron Ring" last year, and he won two fights on the show while being coached by UFC veteran Shonie Carter. The Atlanta, Georgia resident stands only 5′11″ and will give up a full six inches in height to Rogers, but like Brett is also perfect thus far in his career with all of his wins coming by way of strikes.
Dumbass predicts: I never saw "Iron Ring." In fact, I couldn't even tell you what channel BET is on because I don't watch it. Fortunately I do have a YouTube account so I was able to bring myself up to speed. To be quite honest, I was impressed with Abongo's footwork and use of the leg kick. He seems to understand how the game is played. What I wasn't impressed with was his head movement, or lack thereof. Giving up a size difference to a guy who can turn the lights out like "The Grim" makes it hard for me to give Humphrey much of a chance -- especially when he sticks his head straight up when he punches -- like he's peeking over a fence. He's built like a brick shithouse, with thick legs and a compact build. If he can ditch the striking and use that stocky base to upend Rogers and turtle him, this could get real interesting. However if it's all about the hands (and it usually is), Abongo could be staring at the lights in the first round. Still, I get nervous whenever I see a fighter passing the -500 mark in the betting lines, it's like the ultimate jinx. With that in mind (and the fact that I haven't picked any upsets), I'm taking Abongo for the win. And why not? He's talented, but it's not like Rogers has beaten a top ten opponent.
Betting lines (as of April 10):
Rogers: -500 ((Bet Now))
Humphrey: +300 ((Bet Now))
Prediction: Humphrey via KO
That’s a wrap, folks.
Remember to come check us out after the show for all the latest results, recaps and our coverage of Strikeforce: "Shamrock vs. Diaz."
What do you think? Now it’s your turn … let us have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for Saturday’s event.
0 recs |
29 comments
Comments
Picks:
Shamrock via TK0
Radach
Rogers
Cyborg
Melendez
Would like to see Shamrock destroy Diaz then rematch Tito!
ALSO, when the F*ck is Cung Le going to fight again?? He should be stripped of his belt and labelled the worst/overrated champion in MMA history. (i hate this guy, lol)
by SoCalStunNa on Apr 10, 2009 2:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
with you man, people think cung would beat silva which is very stupid as cung would get eaten alive
by Jared on Apr 10, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if any of “those people” live outside of San Jose?
Odds for El Nino are on BoDog. This morning he was -340, now he is -500.
Unfortunately, I think that Shamrock is going to win by decision as well. On the bright side, I have been underselling my favorite fighters as of late and I am hoping that Diaz continues the trend and pulls thru with the upset, I would LOVE to see him make Shamrock tap!!
I got Radach winning by TKO, he could be vicous to put it lightly.
Cyborg will overwhelm the Japanese competition.
I actually did watch Iron Ring and I Abongo is one of the few fighters that truely stood out. But, unfortunately, like Jesse said, he does keep his chin pointing upwards. He will be like 6 inches shorter than Brett, yet he will position his head so that he is looking down at him…. dangerous. I still give him a chance at beating Grimm and wwill be rooting for him, but I expect Grimm to pull it out.
Daaaammmmmmmmmm did you see that submission??? Damm by sub in the first round, or Gilbert grinding it out in the alater rounds.
So far the only $ I got is a parlay on Shamrock/Cyborg/Radach parlay
by ViolentMike on Apr 10, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Radach is a LOCK!! Both him and smith have great stand up, the difference is Radach has much better defense. Scott likes to eat punches but Radach will take his head off! Defense will be the difference in this one n Benji is going to win!
by john on Apr 10, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed john. I got the upset pick on Melendez though.
by NameNotRequired on Apr 10, 2009 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s how I have it, but I pulling for Nick.
by BNF on Apr 10, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah i would love nick to win but i just don’t see it.
by roy on Apr 10, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i heard hes ready to come back later in year, with a rematch against shamrock
by phenomenal angel on Apr 10, 2009 2:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Diaz is way too well rounded for shamcock.
by xxBAxx816 on Apr 10, 2009 2:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Very difficult fight to predict, their both very well-rounded with solid chins, and both have great conditioning. I’m picking Diaz to win this by ground and pound, Shamrock won’t knockout Diaz. I might regret this, but im picking Benji to upset Smith, 2nd round KO!
by Zach on Apr 10, 2009 3:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i am glad strikeforce is on showtime another option to good mma on tv with this ufc and wec i have something to look forward too twice a month of mma
by bryant on Apr 10, 2009 3:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It really sucks ass for me. I’m from Toronto and the only way we can watch it is PPV.
by Zach on Apr 10, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can watch it on showtime.com I thought.
by James S on Apr 10, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hahaha smörgåsbord! spelled in swedish, nice!.. I hope FRank takes Nick’s head off..
by RoB on Apr 10, 2009 3:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
…a win over Thomas Denny… So now the former UFC fighter is fighting chumps from King of the Cage?
by Big T on Apr 10, 2009 3:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Shamrock > Diaz
I just hope Frank fight’s his game instead of just trying to entertain like he did with Cung Le.
by San Jose Rob on Apr 10, 2009 3:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Really short sighted on the Rogers v Humphreys match up. Have a look at where they are going, the talent they have … Rogers by KO.
by DownUnder on Apr 10, 2009 3:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I kinda agree but I think its extremely funny that this is a guide for betting and he actually wants ppl too bet money on the underdog for no reason at all , well because he " hasnt picked a upset yet " … Kinda a retarded reason too pick a winner imho.
by Dayzah on Apr 10, 2009 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The fact that you think this is a guide for betting is a lot more retarded than me picking Abongo.
by Jesse Holland on Apr 10, 2009 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Damn it Jess, ya got me a lil nervous with your upset pick of Abongo. I actually wasn’t able to find fotage of hom on youtube. That didn’t stop me from picking Rogers in a couple parlays though. I think we’ll see all of the main card favs win.
by naturalist on Apr 10, 2009 8:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
jesse: there are only 2 fights that interest me on this card. i think you are right that shammy wins a decision. i disagree on the smith radach fight. as much as i like smith, i think radach finishes him.
by day1er on Apr 10, 2009 10:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My prediction is that Santos and Akano don’t fight at all
by EazyEismydad on Apr 11, 2009 2:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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