WEC predictions and preview for 'Varner vs Cerrone' Jan. 25

Despite playing third fiddle to the highly anticipated Affliction: "Day of Reckoning" last night and next Saturday's megashow at UFC 94: "St. Pierre vs Penn 2," World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) will tonight (Jan. 25) share its unique brand of mixed martial arts from the San Diego Sports Arena in San Diego, Calif, with "Varner vs. Cerrone."
The main card for WEC 38: "Varner vs. Cerrone" will air live on the Versus network, beginning at 9:30 p.m. ET.
Lightweight champion Jamie "C-4" Varner will put his strap on the line against undefeated Muay Thai specialist Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone in the main event of the evening. It will be buttressed by a rematch of one the most watched fights in the history of the organization when former featherweight title holder Urijah "The California Kid" Faber squares off against former UFC champion Jens "Little Evil" Pulver (pictured above).
With those two bouts on the docket, as well as a fantastic under card, the WEC has once again assembled another fight card gem. To help get you pumped for the festivities, we've taken a closer look at each of the four main card bouts and provided predictions, too.
Let's get it on:
WEC Lightweight Champion Jamie "C-4″ Varner (15-2) vs. Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone (9-0)
Testing positive for the banned diuretic after his WEC debut in September of 2007 was among the best things that could have happened to the then 24-year-old Donald Cerrone. He used the nine months on the sidelines to improve every aspect of his game by training tirelessly with guys like George St. Pierre, Leonard Garcia, Nate Marquardt, Keith Jardine, Rashad Evans and others at Jackson Submission Fighting in New Mexico.
When he returned to the cage last June his confidence level was through the roof. And his all around game had clearly improved as evidenced by a decisive first round submission win over then undefeated Danny Castillo.
In November, the WEC granted the prospect a shot at the former champion, "Razor" Rob McCullough, in a number one contender eliminator match on the WEC 36 card in Florida. Cerrone won the "Fight of the Year"-nominated war of attrition via unanimous decision by out-pointing the former champ on the scorecards with a solid Muay Thai attack.
It was nothing different than what we've see from him in the past as far as technique goes, but during the three round battle we got a chance to see two things from Cowboy that we hadn't seen before.
First, his chin was tested numerous times in the fight and he showed the ability to recover more than once when in deep water. And second, his cardio was finally tested in a match that lasted longer than two rounds.
He aced both tests with flying colors.
However, Varner was not as impressed. He claims his win over "Razor" was more impressive because he (a.) won by stoppage, (b.) was facing McCullough when he hadn't lost in five years, and (c.) was never really hurt in the fight. Meanwhile, "Cowboy" was knocked down several times in comparison.
Obviously, none of that means much when the cage door gets locked on Sunday; but, Varner makes some solid points nonetheless.
Cowboy has a big advantage in this match up -- his length and reach. He'll have to use his Muay Thai and kickboxing to stay away from Varner's power because if he thought Razor Rob hit hard, he's in for a rude awakening against C-4.
It's not the end of the world for Cerrone if he gets put on his back because he has solid submission skills, but he'll certainly want to stay away from the champ's powerful hands ... just ask Marcus Hicks.
Cerrone also needs to remember that it's a five round fight and he has plenty of time to do what he needs to do. If he starts feeling rushed or uncomfortable, Varner will no doubt exploit the situation and make him pay dearly.
Basically, Varner is the more seasoned and well rounded fighter, but Cowboy definitely has the tools to pull off the upset. It's just a matter of if he can execute in the cage. If Cowboy is on top of his game on Sunday night and can avoid making any big mistakes, we can certainly see him becoming the next WEC lightweight champion.
Prediction: Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone via unanimous decision
Urijah "The California Kid" Faber (21-2) vs. Jens "Little Evil" Pulver (22-10-1)
Anyone who's expecting this fight to live up to the first encounter between these two back in June at WEC 34, is probably setting themselves up for a disappointment. That memorable five round classic was the first time in nearly five years that either one of these guys had been in a fight that went to the judges scorecards.
Whether it was adrenaline highs, something in the water over in Sacramento -- Faber's hometown -- or whatever, there was just no stopping either one of these guys that night.
Since then, however, both guys have suffered first round technical knockout losses -- Pulver to current number one division contender Leonard Garcia and Faber to current champion Mike Brown, both at WEC 36 in November.
For Pulver it was the third loss in four fights, but for Faber it was just his first taste of defeat since the initial setback of his career to Tyson Griffin back in 2005.
Before that, "The California Kid" was the face of the organization and appeared unbeatable in six WEC matches. He'll no doubt look to silence, not only the critics from that loss, but also those who felt like he should have finished Pulver the first time around, with a strong performance in this fight.
In June, he was the champ and had a lot more to lose. This time around, however, he has everything to gain with a win. If Pulver felt overwhelmed at times during the first fight, that's nothing compared to what he'll be facing this time around in what will essentially be a pissed off Urijah Faber with a point to prove.
The only real advantage for Pulver in this fight is his powerful left hand. He'll need to find a home for it early and often or he'll be sent home fast by the younger, quicker, faster, stronger and more well rounded ex-champion.
Pulver has done a lot for this sport and deserves nothing but respect, but he's in trouble in this fight. Faber all the way.
Prediction: Urijah Faber via second round technical knockout
Danillo "Indio" Villefort (8-2) vs. Mike Campbell (4-0)
Both fighters are making their WEC debuts in a fight that is more than likely being aired on the main card so the promotion can try to build some contenders for Carlos Condit in a shallow welterweight division.
Indio was last seen submitting UFC veteran Mike Massenzio at an IFL event last May in Connecticut. He has a strong background in judo and Brazilian jiu jitsu, training with one of the best camps in the world at American Top Team in Coconut Creek, Florida.
He was originally supposed to debut for the promotion as a middleweight, but will fight at 170 pounds due to the organization phasing out the bigger weight classes this year, meaning he should have some good size for a welterweight.
Campbell will be making only his fifth career start in a professional mixed martial arts match. His record suggests that he's got some power since he's stopped his last three opponents with first round (technical) knockouts.
Villefort will more than likely look to use his size to take the fight to the ground where he can work for submissions as well as avoid Campbell's power. If he can do that, his experience should win out, either on the scorecards or with a submission of some sort.
Prediction: Danillo "Indio" Villefort via second round submission
Jose Aldo (12-1) vs. Rolando Perez (4-1-1)
Aldo is one of the top prospects in the WEC's featherweight division. He's a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu, but is a world class striker as well, with seven career (technical) knockouts.
After two impressive wins over Alexandre Franca Nogueira at WEC 34 and Jonathan Brookins at WEC 36, he's more than likely only a fight or two away from a title shot. An impressive win in front of the Versus audience -- something he hasn't had the chance to do yet -- could land him the first shot at the winner between Mike Brown and Leonard Garcia (with a Faber loss, of course).
Perez took this fight on short notice as a replacement for Fredson Paixao, who was originally scheduled to face Aldo but was forced out because of some contract issues.
He'll be making his promotional debut after taking his first six career fights under the Total Combat banner. His only loss there was by decision and all four of his wins were stoppages, three by submission and one technical knockout.
Perez is a solid fighter, but this is a match up that Jose Aldo should win. He'll be far and away better on his feet than Perez, and he should be able to counter anything on the ground as well if the fight gets there.
Aldo's a very difficult fighter to prepare for, for anybody, but for a guy with limited experience to try and do so on short notice ... it's just not a recipe for success against this guy.
We're going with Aldo in highlight reel fashion.
Prediction: Jose Aldo via first round knockout.
That's a wrap. Feel free to share your event-related thoughts and predictions in the comments section below. To check out the full WEC 38 card click here.
Remember that MMAmania.com will provide up to the minute live coverage of all the WEC 38 action later this evening ... so check in early and often. See you later!
Photo courtesy of Tracy Lee of CombatLifestyle.com.
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Didnt even realize this was going down tonight. nOt very excited about this card. Urijah vs. Jens is a waste of time match up!
I hope Cowboy wins. After the amazing night last night, Its hard to get excited for this.
by john on Jan 25, 2009 11:40 AM EST reply actions
yeah id like to see cerrone win only because varner is a douchebag
by brendan on Jan 25, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
Alright, brenda you little twat and introtard and even roy. I couldn’t help myself last night I bought Affliction and I am happy to say it was pretty good. Very solid night of fights. My only complaint was the sound quality, it sounded like my speakers were blown out, but other than that it was good. Fedor is the man, I hate Barnett so I can’t wait until Fedor kills him.
Did anybody notice the dude Lauzon faught? His fighting style, Hood, LMAO! Juanito should’t be allowed to attend any MMA show let alone work there, but whatever. I thought Tito did a decent job. Vitor looked scary and would love if he went back to the UFC. Finally, I ain’t the UFC and never will be, but if they have Fedor/Barnett for the 3rd show I would buy it.
by BNF on Jan 25, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
OMG!!!!!!!!!
This nearly slipped my mind!!!! Just watched Arlovski/Fedor for the 12th time and now I am watching Margarito/Mosely that I recorded on the DVR last night. So much action!!!
by ViolentMike on Jan 25, 2009 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
if you thought Tito did an okay job last night, then your speakers were blown. Tito was an embarrassment. He seemed like an old In Living Color comedy sketch at times or that guy Ricky from Trailer Park Boys. It was annoying after a while, funny most of the time, but kinda when when you realized that all of his comedy was unintentional.
by sirshannon on Jan 25, 2009 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
BNF, I agree on everything but Fedor. It event was pretty good. But I like the way AA was fighting, he had Fedor alittle hurt and back peddaling! Credit to Fedor for getting the win, as much as hate to say it. And the “Brenda you little tw@t” thing is f*cking classic! LMFAO!
by JV on Jan 25, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
WOW, just finished wathcing Mosely/Margarito.
HOLY SH*T!!!!!!!!!!
What a fight and a BRUTAL UPSET, total annihlation, not a single round won by Margarito and he got KTFO by Mosely badly! I loved it!!!!! Not that I hate Magarito, but it was just a great boxing beat down which you don’t see at the high level all that often.
by ViolentMike on Jan 25, 2009 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
Dont remind me VM! I dont know what was wrong with Margarito? His normal output of punches is in the 100s. And hes got a chin made of steel. But Mosley looked dam good for his age! I still cant believe it.
by JV on Jan 25, 2009 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
Right on JV. You have to give Fedor credit. True champions will always find a way to win and you gotta at least respect that.
by BNF on Jan 25, 2009 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, man i completely forgot that fight was yesterday. Gonna go check it out now.
John – Do you if it’s true that Fredson Paixao backed out of his zuffa contract to fight at the DREAM FWGP?
by NameNotRequired on Jan 25, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
Fedor is not just A champion, he is THE champion
by brendan on Jan 25, 2009 2:30 PM EST up reply actions
hey BNF i thought you were going to the show? anyways, i was wondering what you have to do to get free tickets, gonna try and go to the WEC show tonite, but dont really wanna spend any money
by brendan on Jan 25, 2009 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
Namenot: I havent heard anything about him! If i do I will make sure to let you know~
by john on Jan 25, 2009 7:09 PM EST up reply actions
Mania, I noticed that you took down all my dREAM 7 news that I posted, which usually means that you are constructing a thread about it. Get to work buddy n post it. I want to talk DREAM this morning.
by john on Jan 25, 2009 11:41 AM EST reply actions
watch for Mike Campbell…….congrats on making it man.
by Matty B on Jan 25, 2009 11:44 AM EST reply actions
the first faber fight was in sacramento.. reason why the crowd had the adrenaline going for both guys, urijahs gym is like 15 mins from arco arena,and where he wanted it (memorial auditorium)is across the street :)
by randy murders on Jan 25, 2009 11:54 AM EST reply actions
My prediciton for this WEC card is that it will be replayed at least 40 times on Versus before April.
by naturalshadow on Jan 25, 2009 7:39 PM EST up reply actions
Urijah and Pulver…the least inventive match up this year. Terrible.
by Wags on Jan 25, 2009 12:53 PM EST reply actions
Watch out for Mike Campbell on his back after getting submitted.
by crazyeddie on Jan 25, 2009 2:10 PM EST reply actions
Wow, I really think Pulver is gonna take this one!! rollseyes
I’m a huge fan of his but I think if he wants to keep fighting, he needs to go to Japan.
If he does win I will have a party.
by Jon on Jan 25, 2009 7:32 PM EST reply actions

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