UFC 92 predictions, preview and analysis

UFC 92: "The Ultimate 2008" is set to take place at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada LIVE on pay-per-view (PPV) at 10 p.m. ET on December 27.

Remember: MMAmania.com will provide LIVE updates and blow-by-blow, round-by-round commentary of the main card action on fight night, which is slated to air at 10 p.m. ET.

To get us pumped for the festivities, MMAmania.com Editor and Senior Writer Jesse Holland (that’s me) will be breaking down the main event matches and revealing each fighter’s keys to victory.

If you’re looking for an unbiased and objective examination of each contest, then I’m happy to report you will be extremely disappointed.

Why else do you think I would depose the former contributors and take this act solo like the selfish blowhard you already know me to be?

But enough about me … at least for the time being.

Let’s get cracking:

Forrest Griffin (16-4) vs. "Sugar" Rashad Evans (12-0-1)

Rashad Evans may call himself "Sugar," but to me he's always been nothing more than artificial sweetener. Then he had to go and do a mean thing like clobber Chuck "The Iced-Man" Liddell. Not only did he KO the most prolific champion in the history of the UFC, he silenced a lot of critics (like yours truly) that felt he was undeserving of a light heavyweight title shot. To be fair, Evans is undefeated since winning The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 2 - yet I wouldn't exactly say he's been on a tear. He may have three KO's, but he also has three split-decisions. This is why I have a hard time trying to figure out which Rashad Evans we'll see come Saturday night. In contrast, I absolutely know which Forrest Griffin we'll see: The same gutsy warrior that continues to defy both logic and expectations. I thought he would be turned into lump crabmeat by "Shogun" Rua and he simply laughed and choked him out. Then I thought he would be knocked off his TUF pedestal by "Rampage" Jackson and he guts his way through five rounds to a thrilling championship victory. I'm done with the whole doubting Thomas routine. These guys are for real. On paper I give Evans the advantage in both the wrestling and the striking. He's great on the ground and has proven he's got some serious power. While Forrest is tougher than a two-dollar steak, the knockout loss to Jardine at UFC 66 still worries me - and he hasn't won via (T)KO since 2005. For Griffin to pull this off, he must survive the first two rounds. There is nothing in Evans past that suggests he can maintain the cardio to go deep into a fight, especially the way he dances around in the opening frame. Any wrestling will further tire him and Forrest - who has a significant size advantage - may be able to simply outpoint him and outwork him in rounds three through five - assuming he doesn't get blasted before then.

Keys to victory:

Griffin: Your confidence has to be pretty high after beating Jackson and Rua. That doesn't mean a win over Evans is a lock. Keep your head down and frustrate him until he's sucking wind, or just plain sucking.

Evans: You're not Denny Terrio. Forget the dancing and stick with the striking. Unless you've somehow transformed your cardio this should be considered a two-round fight. Swing for the fences and unless you drive a red pick-up and drink cheap malt liquor, please don't pantomime Fred Sanford if you win.

Prediction: Evans by technical knockout

Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira (31-4-1) vs. Frank Mir (11-3)

Antonio Nogueira is known for getting his ass handed to him prior to executing a miraculous submission win. That's unfortunate, because it overlooks his other attributes. Nog has the ability to fight for a year straight without gassing and his hands are grossly underrated. Forget about the 20 submission wins, he's going to defeat Frank Mir on his feet. The Mir bandwagon is focusing heavily on his win over the green giant at UFC 81, and I keep hearing about the return of "The old Frank Mir." Aside from the Nog-like miracle against Lesnar and the Kimura on Antoni Hardonk, what is there to suggest that Mir is capable of winning it all? It's not going to be by knockout. He owns one (T)KO win in 14 fights, and even if he had great striking, how do you stop a man who survived a flush high kick from Mirko Filipovic and a reverse powerbomb from Bob Sapp? There is a remote chance of submission, but I don't see how Mir can do what other top submission fighters like Fedor Emelianenko and Josh Barnett couldn't. In the end I think they'll spend some time feeling each other out until Mir's cardio begins to fail and Nog starts to find his range. With any luck, fans will be treated to some excellent ground work but again, I have concerns about the conditioning of Mir based on past performances. This should be a showcase fight for Nog, and his first TKO win since smashing Pawel Nastula at PRIDE 'Critical Countdown 2005.'

Keys to victory:

Nogueira: Establish the jab and make him take it to the ground. From there, let him do most of the work until he can't breathe. Anything after the 2:00 mark in round two is yours for the taking.

Mir: How do you prepare for a fighter that you can't submit or you can't knockout? You have more experience in the Octagon than the PRIDE veteran, but do you know how to use it to your advantage? You want to be the heavyweight stud. It's time put up or shut up.

Prediction: Nogueira by technical knockout

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (28-7) vs. Wanderlei "The Axe Murderer" Silva (32-8-1)

Anyone that reads my predictions already knows that I don't put a lot of stock into flash knockouts. So it shouldn't come as a surprise when I say Wanderlei Silva is going down at UFC 92. Since they last met at PRIDE 28 'High Octane', Silva is 5-5 compared to Jackson's 7-2. And 'Rampage' has a crisp KO over Chuck Liddell at UFC 71 followed by a masterful performance against Dan Henderson at UFC 75 - two fighters that soundly defeated "The Axe Murderer". In short, Jackson is a much more complete fighter since they last met in 2004, whereas Wandy could be on the decline. Yes, he put Keith Jardine into an eight-sided coffin mere seconds into their bout at UFC 84 , but the quick ending didn't give us a chance to gauge how much gas is left in the Brazilian's tank. Keep in mind that Wandy fought countless Vale Tudo fights in his homeland before going pro and has a lot of miles on those tires. I don't think Silva is any less ferocious, but I think something is different since his back-to-back KO losses to Henderson and Filipovic. Jackson is too smart and too talented and also too evolved as a fighter to make any of the same mistakes he made way back when. I also hear a lot of good things about his training and mentality since joining the Wolfslair MMA Academy in the UK. Expect Silva to come out like a caged animal on the wrong side of a cattle prod only to be picked apart by a patient and calculating Jackson.

Keys to victory:

Jackson: You made getting tooled in the clinch cool way before Rich Franklin did it at UFC 64 and then again at UFC 77. Forget about the past. You have a new training camp, a new outlook on life and a new chance to establish yourself as one of the worlds best 205-pounders.

Silva: Rampage is easily rattled. Don't rush him like an L.A. cop and you may have a chance to make it a hat trick. Knees were the difference in your first two fights so if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Prediction: Jackson by technical knockout

C.B. "The Doberman" Dollaway (7-1) vs. Mike "The Master of Disaster" Massenzio (11-2)

This is an interesting battle. The match between CB Dollaway and Mike Massenzio was five years in the making. Dollaway defeated Massenzio in a wrestling match at the Junior College Nationals back in 2003 and don't think that Massenzio isn't looking for revenge. "The Master of Disaster" had a chance to join Dollaway on the cast of TUF 7 but declined after three fights in a short span of time left him exhausted. Both have a solid wrestling background and as such, I'm expecting a submission ending. Aside from their history, both fighters are coming off similar circumstances. Dollaway did the world a favor by euthanizing the career of Coco the Monkey at UFC Fight Night 14 via Peruvian necktie after getting submitted by Amir Sadollah at the TUF 7 finale in June. Massenzio had an impressive UFC debut at UFC Fight Night 15, submitting the heavy-handed Drew McFedries after his submission loss to Danillo Villefort in the IFL last May. I'm giving "The Doberman" the edge in striking but the grappling goes to the blue-belt Massenzio. Since every fight starts on the feet, expect them to trade until someone starts eating shots. If and when it hits the ground, I like Massenzio by tapout.

Keys to victory:

Dollaway: You beat him once, you can do it again. Don't let the submission over Coco give you a big head. Try and keep it standing or rock him with some ground and pound.

Massenzio: Like Crosby wrote, don't let the past remind us of what we are - not now. He also asked, what have you got to lose? Well, pretty much everything. If you're still hung up on the loss in 2003, two straight could possibly ruin you. Failure is not an option.

Prediction: Massenzio by submission

Cheick Kongo (12-4-1) vs. Mustapha Al-Turk (6-3)

When I first heard that Kongo was fighting Al-Turk, I figured there was some kind of uprising in the Middle East. Fortunately it's just another heavyweight battle to help King Kongo get enough wins to make a title run. It won't be easy against the debuting Al-Turk "182". Mustapha-infection, who fights out of the famous London Shoot gym in the United Kingdom, is one of those big, scary heavyweights that likes to pound on people until they consider returning to their mother's womb. He's a pretty well-rounded fighter with serviceable boxing and solid grappling skills. He'll eventually need to polish his wrestling skills, but that won't matter against Kongo, who has no business taking it to the ground himself. Kongo — who often flirts with emerging as a top contender — recently defeated Dan Evensen via technical knockout in the first round at UFC 87: "Seek and Destroy" last month. It was his fourth win within the eight-sided cage for the Parisian against two losses. He holds notable wins over Mirko Filipovic and Assuerio Silva, as well as a damaging split-decision loss to Heath Herring earlier this year. Like many fighters, it's hard to know which Kongo will be making an appearance. He recently joined Quinton Jackson, Michael Bisping and others who train at the Wolfslair MMA Academy in the United Kingdom, and I think he's going to cruise to an early finish.

Keys to victory:

Kongo: He can hit hard, but so can you. Show him the difference between technical striking and brawling. Hide your chin like an immigrant housekeeper.

Al-Turk: Kongo doesn't like to be swarmed and can be stopped. Watch the fight with Gilbert Yvel "Kneivel" for an example. Beware of the kick and swing early and often.

Prediction: Kongo by technical knockout

That’s a wrap, folks.

Remember to come check us out after the show for all the latest results, recaps and our coverage of UFC 92 "The Ultimate 2008."

What do you think? Now it’s your turn … let us have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for UFC 92.