The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 8 Finale predictions, preview and analysis

The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 8 Finale is set to go down from The Pearl at the Palms Casino Resort in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Saturday, December 13. The television event airs LIVE on Spike TV at 9 p.m. ET.
Remember: MMAmania.com will provide LIVE updates and blow-by-blow, round-by-round commentary of the main card action throughout the three-hour telecast. As usual, it promises to be a great discussion during an exciting line up of fights.
To get us pumped for the festivities, MMAmania.com Editor and Senior Writer Jesse Holland (that’s me) will be breaking down the main event matches and revealing each fighter’s keys to victory.
If you’re looking for an unbiased and objective examination of each contest, then I’m happy to report you will be extremely disappointed.
Why else do you think I would depose the former contributors and take this act solo like the selfish blowhard you already know me to be?
But enough about me, at least for the time being.
Let’s get cracking:
Ryan Bader (7-0) vs. Vinicius Magalhães (2-2)
Undefeated light heavyweight finalist Ryan "The Master" Bader was Coach Nogueira's number one pick for a reason. In addition to being a two-time All-American and three-time All-Pac-10 wrestler from Arizona State, he's undefeated in mixed martial arts and has KO power. He looked great in his destruction of Tom Lawlor during TUF 8 and effectively neutralized the jiu-jitsu of Eliot Marshall en route to a unanimous decision win in the semifinals. Unfortunately for "Darth", Vinny Magalhaes is not Eliot Marshall. In fact he's not even close. Frank Mir lauds Magalhaes as the best grappler in the entire UFC light heavyweight division. The three-time BJJ world champion in heavyweight, super heavyweight, and absolute divisions also holds a title in the Pan-American Grappling Championships and is a two-time Brazilian National Heavyweight Champion. He may be a little flashy when it comes to his technique, but I don't think it's a stretch to say Bader doesn't have a prayer on the ground. If you take away the wrestling of Bader, what are you left with? He's an average striker, and he may have been better on the feet than Vinny was during TUF, but things have changed a lot since then. Mags has been doing time at Xtreme Couture under the tutelage of Dan Henderson working specifically on stand-up. Vinny already knew how to kick hard and if he comes into his bout against Bader with some confidence in his hands, this one's going to be a first-rounder.
Keys to victory:
Bader: You're a great wrestler, but Vinny's guard is the last place you want to be. Re-watch Henderson versus Palhares and drop a couple of quarters in an old Street Fighter machine for a tip: Vega went down easily when you hit him in his pretty face.
Magalhaes: A couple of hard low kicks should keep him at bay. Like most money shots, he'll be aiming for your face so make sure you're a moving target. There's no shame in pulling guard - just make sure he's within ten feet of you before flopping on your back.
Prediction: Magalhaes by submission
Efrain Escudero (10-0) vs. Phillipe Nover (5-0-1)
At first glance Phillipe Nover is the favorite to win the title of "Ultimate Fighter." But let's not count Efrain Escudero out just yet. Escudero trains out of the very underrated Southwest MMA in Tempe, Arizona and in addition to his title of 140-pound state wrestling champion at Cibola High School in Yuma, he's finished nine of his ten victories via submission. He easily submitted Shane Nelson and Junie Browning during his stint on TUF, all while dealing with the loss of his father. He is tenacious and crafty, and it's not implausible to think he can win it all. Having said that, Escudero will need to be nearly perfect. Nover hits like a sledgehammer and can sink a submission without even using a slick technique. His first round Kimura over George Roop in the semifinals was all muscle and that has to be considered when planning a ground attack. I'm not sure Escudero will be strong enough to submit Nover but we haven't seen what Phillipe can do outside of the first round. He's only gone to the second round twice in his career and never seen a third, so it will be interesting to see what happens if Escudero can survive the early punishment and drag him into deep water. And don't discount the family tree - Escudero has boxing in his blood. One thing is for sure, this one isn't going to be boring.
Keys to victory:
Escudero: First things first: Survive round one. From what we've seen so far that may be a pretty tall order. We're talking about fighting a guy who snacks on aborted ducklings. Good luck.
Nover: Not that you need any further motivation, but just imagine that Escudero is a JCAHO officer who just cited your entire ward with violations. TUF Finale 8: When nurses attack!
Prediction: Nover by TKO
Junie Browning (2-0) vs. Dave Kaplan (2-1)
This is a compelling match-up because it finally answers the question about which fighter can actually walk the walk. For the entire eighth season all we heard about was how Junie Browning is so talented and has so much potential and blah, blah, blah. Then he barely squeaks past Roli Delgado and gets choked out by Efrain Escudero in the semifinals. Kaplan is no better. He was marching through the TUF mansion like the town crier, ringing his bell and promoting his granite chin. Then he gets laced by Phillipe Nover and then taxied to queer street in the upstairs bathroom by Tom Lawlor. Now I've heard Kaplan is the real deal who executed a piss-poor gameplan (homage to the fruit platter), and he claims to have trained with international names like Ivan Hippolyte, Ernesto Hoost, Gilbert Yvel and Remy Bonjasky. He also studies jiu-jitsu under Lloyd Irvin. The question is, can he execute? I haven't seen anything from Junie Browning that leads me to believe he's ready to take the next step and if he sleepwalks his way through Saturday's fight it may be the last we see of him. That said, I'm hoping he realizes this opportunity and brings a sound strategy. This fight has the potential to be Fight of the Night if both men live up to the promise they both claimed they have since day one. Here's to hoping.
Keys to victory:
Browning: I know guys with a tracheotomy that suck wind less than you do. You may be tough, but if you can't breathe after the first two minutes then what good does it do? Train like you were fighting in PRIDE, where the first round was ten minutes long and you might have a chance.
Kaplan: Enough about the chin already, you're not Bobby Fibonacci. Brawling is nothing in the face of technique. You repeatedly claim to have it, now can we please see it?
Prediction: Kaplan by TKO
Wilson Gouveia (11–5) vs. Jason MacDonald (21–10)
Jason MacDonald has been keeper of the gate in the middleweight division ever since he fell to Rich Franklin at UFC 68 back in 2007. Since then he's been a mediocre 3-3 and if you include the fight against Chris Leben at UFC 66, wins every other fight. Using that amazingly scientific logic, MacDonald will lose this fight since he just beat Jason Lambert at UFC 88. Now before the haters rush furiously to the comments section, let me remind you the real Nostradamus used pretty much the same logic. MacDonald has great submissions (winning 17 of 21 via sub), but despite his moniker "The Athlete," has been known to gas in the later rounds. Wilson Gouveia on the other hand is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt that likes to strike. He has heavy hands and great leg kicks and is 5-1 in his last six fights. Like Medium Mac, he can taper off as the fight drags on. It's hard to imagine this fight going the distance since both fighters have seen the judges scorecards only once in their last ten fights, but I don't see either of them being able to finish the other. Expect MacDonald to keep it interesting on the ground while Gouveia outpoints him on the feet. A slow first round will pick up in the second and return to a crawl in the third. Move along folks, nothing to see here.
Keys to victory:
Gouveia: Since it's trendy for jiu-jitsu black belts to stand and strike (Jorge Gurgel, Andy Wang - yes, I went there), there's no point in going all Jack Ryan and focusing on the sub. You have great leg kicks and quicker hands so use them early and often.
MacDonald: Just like MMAmania after one Coors Light, you're guaranteed to end up on the ground. Forget about the submissions and blast him with elbows like you did against Rory Singer and Joe Doerksen.
Prediction: Gouveia by split-decision
Kevin Burns (7-1) vs. Anthony Johnson (5-2)
How angry is Anthony Johnson? "Rumble" took an eye poke back at UFC Fight Night 14 in July courtesy of an errant Burns uppercut. Referee Steve Mazzagatti was out of position and didn't see the gouge and stopped the fight after Burns followed up with an onslaught. Johnson filed an appeal to have the decision overturned and was denied. Add that to his eye surgery and you have one angry welterweight. And a big one at that. After giving Tommy Speer a near-death experience at Fight Night 13, Johnson reminded both UFC fans and officials just how scary his striking can be when he’s locked in. While at first glance he looks to be the favorite, I can’t shake the sight of him tapping to Rich Clementi at UFC 76. Like Mr. "No Love" himself, Burns has a capable submission offense and should not try to stand and bang with Johnson. Why should he? "Rumble" has yet to finish a fight that has gone past round one. His goal here should be to survive the first and let Johnson burn himself out looking for the knockout. From there he needs to pick his spots and wait for the overeager Johnson to make a mistake. Like any good striker, there is very little margin for error, so working from the guard may be Burns’ best chance. Hopefully he’s there by choice, and not because he can’t feel his legs.
Keys to victory:
Burns: Fists of fury? Count on it. Put your head down and weather the storm until "Rumble" gases out and then it's easy pickins'. Bring him to the floor and make him tap. Assuming you haven't been dropped in the first ten seconds.
Johnson: Ease off the throttle. Stop running around like the Stygian witches screaming about your lost eye. You're a deadly striker and if you attack methodically it's enter sandman.
Prediction: Johnson by KO
That’s a wrap, folks. For the complete Ultimate Fighter 8 Finale fight card click here . Remember to come check us out after the show for the latest results, recaps and thoughts on Saturday’s fights.
What do you think? Now it’s your turn … let’s have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for The Ultimate Fighter 8 Finale.
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77 comments
Comments
Credit to whichever MMAmaniac came up with Ryan “The Master” Bader.
by Jesse Holland on Dec 12, 2008 2:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah that is a good one!
Question for you guys to Ponder:
What do u think would happen if one of the TUF finalists FAILED to make weight for the finale? Disastrous huh?
I dunno if they would still be able to fight for the contract, but I know thats one way to make sure u never get to fight in the UFC again!
Could u imagine if Philippe doesnt make weight?
by john on Dec 12, 2008 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That would suck. Master Bader hilarious!
by James S on Dec 12, 2008 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That bit about Kaplan getting taken to queer street in the bathroom was pretty funny too.
by PW on Dec 12, 2008 3:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I might have been the first, I knew about his Ryan “Darth” Bader nickname well before the show began taping. Way back them I said that I were him, I would be Ryan “The Master” Bader (And you got to begin the Bruce Bufferesque emphasis on “The Master” and end it with a thunderous “BAAAAADER”
Ryaaan The MAaaassssterrrrrrrrrr BAAAAAAAAADER!!!!!!
by ViolentMike on Dec 12, 2008 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That would suck homie.. Master Bader is classic.. that should be his offical nick name ..for real.
by PhilQNY on Dec 12, 2008 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I love the Street Fighter/Vega comment. Thanks for going old school. Brings back memories.
by Chris W on Dec 12, 2008 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So glad “master” Bader stuck, thats a good one.
by medecine balls on Dec 12, 2008 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
efrain has vs better fighters that nover so far so i think it will be closer than everyone thinks but i still got nover on this
by ufcaddict on Dec 12, 2008 7:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
burns – bader – macdonald ftw good bets to make i’m hardly ever wrong
anyone else believe burns will win?? or is that just me???
by ufcaddict on Dec 12, 2008 7:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No way burns wins. He had nothing to offer last time. Even in the Jucao fight, with injury free hands his standup was nothing of note. Also, adding the fact that Johnson will be looking to make a statement – he’s gonna get wrecked.
by NameNotRequired on Dec 12, 2008 8:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve been thinking of a “what if.” you CAN NOT answer the question with "it won’t happen! thats the only "rule!
what if Brock Lesner KO’s Nog? then what?
by kevin on Dec 12, 2008 2:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Then people should, but probably won’t, stop dogging him for being lucky, being a bum, being undeserving, or being a WWE-washout.
by PW on Dec 12, 2008 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
then….he beats Mir via strikes in rnd 1…then imo loses in similar fashion to shane carwin
by McArthur on Dec 12, 2008 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They better start pumping up Carwin and Cain. They will need new #1 contender once this HW mess is cleaned up.
by BNF on Dec 12, 2008 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
PW, Brock will never get his props, but at least that will keep us busy on this site schooling the knuckleheads.
by BNF on Dec 12, 2008 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OR….if Monson beat Kongo…then Monson/Carwin to see who fights Brock…what do ya think????
by McArthur on Dec 12, 2008 4:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Monson needs more than 2 wins to earn a title shot. He doesn’t have a big fan base so he’s not an easy fighter to promote. And you’re getting way ahead of yourself when Brock still has to fight the winner of Nogueira/Mir.
by GregC on Dec 12, 2008 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Carwin needs a fight too soon I think. He should be fighting in Feb or March. They need to put him on the main card agaisn’t a “name”, maybe Herring.
Greg, either way the UFC needs to find a #1 contender for the undisputed HW Champ, whoever it may be.
by BNF on Dec 12, 2008 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They don’t need #1 contender – Brock is not going to fight until July & then it is against Mir/Nog winner
by Anger Jack on Dec 12, 2008 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
First of all, how do you know it is not until July? Secondly, my comment was refering to the fact that the Brock vs Mir/Nog winner will need someone to fight. Geez…
by BNF on Dec 12, 2008 4:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
only reason brock won is because of the size advantage …. i think the likes of carwin would destroy brock then all u brock lovers can see that mma does require some skill and technique and not just size advantage
i actually think that anybody that is good enough to get into the ufc that is brocks weight would beat him
the guy was huge compared to randy yet randy took him down this guy is a true fool everyone will see that when he vs someone his own size
by ufcaddict on Dec 12, 2008 7:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
really, i thought he won because he clocked randy in the side of his head. dont fault a guy because of his size. hes within the rules AND a good wrestler. as good a wrestler as randy, who was olympic quality, maybe not but few probably are. brock may be not the best but to say he has no skills is completely ignorant.
by Egads on Dec 12, 2008 7:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
lol better wrestler thats a good one….. brock struggled to take him down
by ufcaddict on Dec 13, 2008 8:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hes not even close to randy in terms of wrestling
he stuggled to take a 40 something year old down that weighs significantly less than him
and most ppl would be able to knock a significantly smaller guy out
and you read your own comment again u stupid nut hugger …. u need to pull your tongue out from inbetween brocks bum cheeks
by ufcaddict on Dec 13, 2008 2:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why wouldn’t he? I don’t remember him ever having weight issues.
by EazyEismydad on Dec 12, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
did you guys here about this??
Monson expects to return to UFC;First bout against Kongo
by kevin on Dec 12, 2008 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He’s fighton Ricco Rodriguez in Miami this weekend at the same show Bobby Lashley is debuting at.
by the_mexicutioner on Dec 12, 2008 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you never know with monson, did he say this or was it from a credible source. i wouldn’t mind him coming back but i don’t think its a good match up for kongo.
by roy on Dec 12, 2008 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yes. on FIGHTOPINION.COM. anyone can go to this site and see the top 3 threads from every major mma website and most minor ones. just make sure and come back to mania and blog. :) kongo vs monson sounds boring to me.
by b.w. on Dec 12, 2008 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ya…grappler vs. striker is a bit of an understatement there….I would LOVE to see Monson vs Lesner….
by McArthur on Dec 12, 2008 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
haha…nice call…can’t believe I missed that one
by McArthur on Dec 12, 2008 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well Junie sucks too, so I say it is a draw
by subwayy2sallyy on Dec 12, 2008 3:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Gouveia 2 round TKO.. he throws heavy leather, and MacDonald just doesn’t seem to like standing and getting punched in the face, not that he’s supposed to like it but he just seems afraid of standing when he’s got good reach and potential to do something..
by RoB on Dec 12, 2008 2:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Did he even see the Burns-Johnson fight? Burns was killing Johnson standing up even before the first eye poke and he only had one good hand. I think Burns takes this fight either on the ground or standing.
by Zen Jitsu on Dec 12, 2008 2:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Did you see the fight? I don’t see how anyone can objectively watch their fight and think that Burns was winning. I don’t like Johnson’s attitude so I wanted Burns to win the fight, and I still saw him getting dominated by Johnson. I gave him credit for absorbing Johnson’s punches with his face, but that doesn’t typically win many points with the judges.
by GregC on Dec 12, 2008 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m the most interested in the McDonald/Wilson fight and the Efrain/Nover fight. Everything else…meh.
by Daniel Todd on Dec 12, 2008 2:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Entertaining as always, but I really think that Kevin Burns will win this one. I actually will go so far to guarantee it!
by Chandler, Steve on Dec 12, 2008 2:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
naah sry, Burns keeps his chin straight up in the air and without the eye pokes he will lose..
by RoB on Dec 12, 2008 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think that once Burns wins this one, he deserves a title shot.
by Chandler, Steve on Dec 12, 2008 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m thinking that Burns could face Akihiro Gono once he defeats Jon Fitch. The winner of that gets a welterweight title shot. I guess Thiago Alves will be champion by then.
by Chandler, Steve on Dec 12, 2008 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
what planet are you on…Burns won’t beat Fitch, what does Gono have to do with it, and Alves probably won’t beat GSP (or BJ)
by McArthur on Dec 12, 2008 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
McArthur….. dude he is being sarcastic…geez
by Psyqo78®™ on Dec 12, 2008 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes he was being sarcastic, but FYI, Gono fits in because he has an upcoming fight with Jon Fitch
by ViolentMike on Dec 12, 2008 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
To answer your question, Planet Steve.
Go Burns Go!!!
by Chandler, Steve on Dec 12, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
sorry…just finished reaming someone at work and was all fired up
by McArthur on Dec 12, 2008 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i have the same pretty much if any upset it will be junie but i hope over at team couture that they straightened this kid out before his fight gave him a attitude check!!!
by bryant on Dec 12, 2008 2:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Your picks for Wednesday night were HORRIBLE.
by Corey Hill on Dec 12, 2008 2:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Saturday night I will be redeemed
by Jesse Holland on Dec 12, 2008 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Junie will win though – Kaplan is a joke
by Anger Jack on Dec 12, 2008 4:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I liked the Street Fighter reference and the jab at Mania’s drinking skills.
Also you spelled ‘entire’ wrong but I won’t tell you where because you are an editor and that is your job.
HAHA!
by DirtyML on Dec 12, 2008 2:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Jesse, I think your Joint Commission reference will go over 99% of people’s head, but hey I thought it was good. Excellent write up as always.
by PJJ on Dec 12, 2008 3:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Nover: Not that you need any further motivation, but just imagine that Escudero is a JCAHO officer who just cited your entire ward with violations. TUF Finale 8: When nurses attack!
i beleave JCAHO accredits it would be OSHA that cites
by roy on Dec 12, 2008 3:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I worked in an ER for two years, trust me I know JCAHO. It’s not like they accredit you and never come back.
by Jesse Holland on Dec 12, 2008 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Have anyone noticed that A Johnson is a pinhead? Take a close look, he looks really freaky. Alien like really, with a cone for a head and deformed cheekbones.
by Lester the Pimp on Dec 12, 2008 3:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
There you go again Lester, now Rob is going to come call you a racist again.
by Psyqo78®™ on Dec 12, 2008 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lester…. Did you see Rob calling you a racist yesterday?
by Psyqo78®™ on Dec 12, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
he should’ve because comments like this just proves my point..
by RoB on Dec 12, 2008 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah Rob you are probably right…. If someone called me a racist with no basis I would get pissed and defend myself but he doesn’t seem to be doing that
by Psyqo78®™ on Dec 12, 2008 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
When the hell has Gouveia ever been envolved in a boring fight? And did you for get he dropped down to 185. No way he gasses and now way MacDonald will make it to the scorecards. J-Mac was stup*d enough to go to the ground with Maia so maybe he will go there with Gouveia after he takes a beating on the feat, but by then it will be too late. Gouveia by TKO! Okay, sorry… Other than that great write up and I agree with all the other picks, except I am leaning towards Efrain pulling out a decision.
by BNF on Dec 12, 2008 3:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Right now at -200, I think Vinny is too big of a favorite. IF Bader keeps the fight standing, he has a great chance at winning, and considering his wrestling, it shouldn’t be all that hard to keep it up. With that said, I got Vinny as the favorite, but not a -200 favorite.
Junie Browning is -400, that is waaaay too big. I’m thinking about putting a small amount on Kaplan at +250 in this one, the fight will be much closer than the odds predict. However, I will be rooting for Junie to win regardless…
I am about to put in a Nover/Gouveia parlay and possibly include Vinny but I doubt it. Then I’ll throw a little on Kaplan possibly.
What are you gamblers betting one???
by ViolentMike on Dec 12, 2008 3:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Nover/Gouveia/Kaplan parlay paying out at 6.5 to 1
and
Nover/Marshall parlay payin out at almost 1 to 2 (Risking $100 to win $44 or so)
by ViolentMike on Dec 12, 2008 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
“Like most money shots, he’ll be aiming for your face.” Still laughing at that one…good $hit
by FukStyck on Dec 12, 2008 3:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
mmamania drinks coors light? ew… you have no room to bash these guys about drinking piss anymore
by yohnstoppable on Dec 12, 2008 4:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t drink that swill if it were free!
by chefdaddy on Dec 12, 2008 7:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’d have to say that Bader will probably get submitted rather quickly unless he lands a haymaker. Classic wrestler versus submission artist scenario. His jiu jitsu isn’t at the level it needs to be. He’s gonna have to keep it standing, none of that laying on top of the guy, and doin’ nothin. Nover in first round knockout. Efrain has alot of heart, but heart’s not gonna keep his chin safe. Junie just needs to get his melon knocked off. Not talented enough to be that cocky.
by KJ Mack on Dec 12, 2008 10:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Wrong again jesse ha ha, like everyone else and the odds makers
by nathan on Dec 14, 2008 3:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

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