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Jake Shields vs Paul 'Semtex' Daley Elite XC fight preview and prediction


Elite XC: "Heat" — the third installment of "Saturday Night Fights" on CBS — is set to go off live from the BankAtlantic Center in Sunrise, Fla., this Saturday, October 4, beginning at 9 p.m. ET on national television.

To get us prepared for the event, we will showcase a daily feature for each main card fight leading up to the event. These features will include information on the fighters, predictions, as well as training notes from each fighter.

The lone title fight in Sunrise is a classic clash of styles and potentially the sickest fight on the card. Elite XC Welterweight Champion Jake Shields (21-4-1) will put his 170-pound title on the line for the first time against the dangerous British striker Paul "Semtex" Daley (18-6-2).

Anybody who knows anything about either one of these guys is drooling in anticipation for this fight.

Here’s the breakdown:

Star-divide

Fighter backgrounds:

Jake Shields -- Jake is a 29-year-old fighter, fighting out of San Francisco, California. He's a Cesar Gracie black belt in jiu jitsu, reigning Elite XC welterweight champion, Rumble on the Rock champion and former Shooto world champion.

He comes from a wrestling background where he earned All-American status for two years at Cuesta College. His martial arts training began at Chuck Liddell's SLO Kickboxing Academy at an early age. Not too long after learning the ropes from the "The Iceman," he decided he wanted to make a go at a career in MMA.

Late in 2001 he discovered jiu jitsu at Cesar Gracie's school. Learning from one of the best teachers of the sport, he excelled and did well in several high profile tournaments. He finally earned his black belt in February of 2007.

He stayed with the striking he learned at the beginning of his career from Liddell by joining former Muay Thai world champion Jongsanan Fairtex's Fairtex Fighting Academy.

With all the training he's received from these world class trainers in all these different disciplines, he's made a name for himself, and is widely considered one of the top 170-pound mixed martial artists in the world.

He defeated Nick "The Goat" Thompson by rear naked choke in the first round at Elite XC: "Unfinished Business" to capture the company's first division title. He's also known for having defeated Carlos Condit and Yushin Okami in the same night on his way to winning the Rumble on the Rock tournament in 2006.

Paul Daley -- "Semtex" is a 25-year-old fighter hailing from Nottingham, England. He's known for having a very nice Muay Thai game and devastating knockout power. He's the reigning Cage Rage welterweight world champion.

Daley is one of the most charismatic personalities in mixed martial arts. He's never shy about saying what's on his mind and has a vocabulary filled with four letter words.

Earlier this year, after sending Sam Morgan home with one of the nastiest standing elbow knockouts since Anderson Silva's demolition of Tony Fryklund, Daley called out anybody and everybody in Elite XC, including Shields.

But he apparently had a change of heart not too long after because he announced his retirement from the sport a few weeks later. He said training and competing was taking too much out of him and he needed some time away to get his personal life in order.

We all knew the retirement would be short lived and sure enough not six months later he made public his plans to return to professional fighting. He picked up right where he left off too, handing undefeated Bojan Kosednar his first loss with a first round knockout.

This will be his third fight under the Elite XC banner, having knocked out both Morgan and Duane Ludwig in his previous outings.

Training notes:

Jake Shields -- Shields is an absolute gym rat. He primarily trains with the Cesar Gracie camp where he gets to work with guys like Gilbert Melendez and Nick and Nate Diaz regularly. It's safe to say he gets quality jiu jitsu and cardio training with them.

He also has a gym of his own just outside of San Francisco. He says he does a lot of training there and he still works his Muay Thai with the Fairtex Combat Academy as well.

Shields also spends some time training at American Kickboxing Academy. When we interviewed him before the Nick Thompson fight, he said he had been training there with Jon Fitch at least twice a week.

He gets around the San Francisco area. If you've trained around there, chances are you've ran into Jake.

Here's his reaction to Daley's comments leading up to the fight:

"I don’t really pay that much attention to what someone has to say. I go out and fight my fight. Sounds like he knows he’s over his head. He’s like the little dog barking to act tough. Daley won’t last with me and knows it."

Paul Daley -- Daley is training out of Mike's Gym in Amsterdam under the tutelage of Mike Passenier, training Muay Thai and judo. Here's a snip from a recent interview with MMAnews.com about his camp for this fight:

"It's going really well, thanks. It's very intense, I'm here at Mike's Gym in Amsterdam, with Melvin (Manhoef) and the Dream 6 fight camp, So I’m really training to fight a Grand Prix, So i'm in great shape."

And when asked what he's been working on specifically for this fight:

"Of course my takedown defense, my conditioning and my submissions and take down defense. We've had some judo guys, wrestlers and have had Antonio Carvalho through out the camp."

And finally, on what he feels he needs to do to win the fight:

"Keep the pressure on him, stop the takedowns, make him scared of me...as well he fucking should be, and knock him out!"

Ok, here's one more. This one is from fightticket.com and is vintage "Semtex":

"Fuck Jake Shields. I’m gonna crush him, and give him such a brutal knock out, he better be fucking scared. Or even better let him not, let him laugh and think I’m talking shit. Give me even more motivation."

Fight breakdown:

Sam Morgan was able to take "Semtex" down twice pretty easily. His problem was that he couldn't hold the Brit down. Daley better realize that Jake Shields won't have those same problems if he gets him to the mat.

Jake is way too talented of a grappler for Daley to allow himself to be put on his back. If that happens, it's going to be a short night for the challenger.

However, while the champ has some decent striking in his arsenal, he's nowhere near the level of Daley. If "Semtex" can stuff the takedowns and keep the fight in his comfort area, we could see a new Elite XC champion tomorrow night.

Regardless of what anybody says about Jake's improved striking or the fact that he hasn't been knocked out in over eight years, if he tries to trade blows with Paul Daley, he's going to lose his belt.

Daley's Muay Thai attack is too quick and too powerful.

So, being how this is almost a clear cut case of who can take the fight where they want it to go, wrestling and size could play a huge part in the outcome. And Jake Shields has the advantage in both areas. He's a large 170 pounder, while Daley looks like he could easily fight at lightweight if he wanted to.

The bigger and stronger Jake Shields should be able to dictate where this fight goes a little easier than Daley simply because of those advantages.

Therefore, Jake taking the Cage Rage champ down, holding him there, taking a dominant position and either pounding him out or securing a submission is the likeliest of scenarios.

We're going with Jake Shields to retain his Elite XC welterweight title.

Final prediction:

Jake Shields via submission (rear naked choke) in round one.

Check back in tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the the heavyweight main event of the night between Miami native Kevin "Kimbo Slice" Ferguson and Hall of Famer Ken "The World's Most Dangerous Man" Shamrock.

0 recs  |  Comment 28 comments

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After seeing how Thompson couldn’t do a thing against Shields in that last fight, I have to agree with Iannotti on this one. Shields should know what Daley’s strengths are by now, and so I expect him to take Daley down at will.

I also agree with an earlier blog post stating that he needs to move to the UFC and get a fight against GSP. I’m not saying Shields would win, I just think that would be an interesting matchup.

by Carano4VicePresident on Oct 3, 2008 6:31 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Both of them are definitely ufc ready in my opinion. They wont be monsters in it but a lot of possible great, entertaining match ups there!

by rp on Oct 3, 2008 8:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

they are both absolutely UFC ready. As a welterweight, Daley has a world class stand up game. I think his stand up is up there with GSP’s and my boy Alves. Like Alves, Semtex just needs to improve on his takedown defense and he will have a great chance against anyone! He really is a brutally Nasty striker.

I dunno if Semtex will be able to keep this fight standing, but I know that if he can, he will score the upset via KO over Sheilds. Easier said then done, because Jake is aware of it and has excellent takedowns and ground game. Jake has to know that he cant stand in front of Semtex and exchange, that just wouldn’t be wise.

I am not saying Semtex will win this fight, but I like the kid a lot and believe that he has an enormous upside….Taking odds into consid3eration (+450), I have to throw a little something something on my boy SEMTEX!

by john on Oct 3, 2008 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t think the odds reflect the reality of the situation. I see it as about 70-30 in favour of Jake. Therefore there’s value in a bet on Semtex in my opinion. But hey, what do I know, it’s just guess work.

by RobH86 on Oct 3, 2008 6:51 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Rob: I completely agree. Jake is a big favorite and for a reason. but I truley believe Semtex is a top Fighter, and I will always bet on a top fighter at +450.

not saying, Semtex will win this fight, but like you said, I also believe a bet on Daley has a nice value.

For gamblers, BET ARLOVSKI!!!!!!!! Trust me when I tell you….BET THE PITBULL!!!

For those that dont know, with a win on saturday, Arlovski will collect his first 7 figure payday (we all know how the pitbull lo9ves his money!) from an mma fight, curtosy of Affliction (not paid for by EliteXC). Roy Nelson is biting off more then he can chew. His best opponent has been Brad Imes, so fighting the pitbull is a HUGE jump up in competition and I think it will be too much, to soon! Also, besides the million bucks he is set to collect with a win over Nelson, Arlovski will also earn himself a meaga payday against Fedor with a win over Nelson.

Simply, Nelson is not good enough, and Arlovski has so much to gain! Gotta ride the pitbull ot the BANK!!!!

by john on Oct 3, 2008 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would truly be flabbergasted if Andrei lost this one. Semtex will probably lose but the payout makes it worthwhile if he does pull it off. I think if this fight played out 5 times you’d be up a good bit betting on Paul. It’s a positive bet so I’d take it everyday.

by RobH86 on Oct 3, 2008 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Daley will win this fight watch.

by belfort_fan on Oct 3, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I really hope he does. He’s such a character.

by RobH86 on Oct 3, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Think about it. If jake cant get the takedown, he will get knocked out for sure. If he does get the takedown he will get the sub for sure. But Daley has great TKD. and i realy think it takes a solid wrestler to take him down. Shields is a good wrestler and im sure he CAN take him down. But its all going to depend on if Shields DOES get the takedown or not.

by belfort_fan on Oct 3, 2008 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Daley’s odds are huge imo!

by Tony on Oct 3, 2008 7:23 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

o yea.. +450 is not enough respect. tempting

by coach ed papavitch fka kama kaze on Oct 3, 2008 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

GSP is tailor made to destroy people like Shields, who needs to be on top of GSP to win. GSP destroys Shields.

by Mike on Oct 3, 2008 8:24 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes he does. Then again he pretty much destroys everyone, accept a little fat Hawaian.

by RobH86 on Oct 3, 2008 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think this is going to be a fight of the year candidate. Striker vs. Crappler.. love it.

by "Mr. NC-17" on Oct 3, 2008 8:56 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Dont think so. I see it ending in the first.

by c-war on Oct 3, 2008 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That is absolutely spot on in terms of a breakdown mania! I am so pumped for this fight it is untrue. A lot of people are underestimating Semtex due to a lack of knowledge. His striking would trouble ANYONE at 170, gsp included. I think shields is still favourite but do not be suprised if he takes an early nap. Daley has got the speed and power to pull this off. Where’s john at, know he’s got my back on this one!

by Nick J on Oct 3, 2008 9:08 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Shields is more or less a much better version of Fitch on the ground, which is a scary though. (when they grappled against each other, Jake tapped Fitch). I think Shields is going to put him down and Daley won’t be able to survive it.

by Bill Maher on Oct 3, 2008 9:09 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

hey Bill.. congrats on the movie. i saw the 10 minute preview thats actually 2 minutes…lol haven’t seen it but sure itll rock the world.

by coach ed papavitch fka kama kaze on Oct 3, 2008 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

In the betting odds thread, someone asked a question about explaining the odds. Sluaghter Time gave a quick rundowm.

(copy/paste from original thread)

I just wanted to take it one step further, you can convert the betting line to the percentage that the fighter has at winning.

If a fighter is the favorite (meaning he is minus), then use this formula:

Amount to win $1 / (Amount to win $1 +$1) = % that the favorite wins.

For the underdog, it is:

1 / (Amount won when wagering $1 + 1) = % that the underdog wins.

Sounds confusing, but its a great tool when deciding who to bet. For example, lets use Kimbo and Shamrock

Kimbo is -350
Ken is +250

Kimbo is the favorite and Ken is the underdog. Say you bet $35 on Kimbo. That means you would win $10 (and of course get your $35 back). Now if you were to bet that same $35 on the underdog, Ken, you would win $87.50 plus your $35.

Taking a look at the percentages…

Kimbo = 3.5 / (3.5 + 1) = 3.5 / 4.5 = 77.78%

So if you think that Kimbo has better than a 77.78% chance at winning the fight, then it would be a worthwhile bet to make.

ken = 1 / (2.5 + 1) = 1 / 3.5 = 28.57%

So if you think Ken has better than a 28.57% chance at winning, it would be worthwhile to bet on Ken.

This is actually the first time I posted the “percentage formulas”. I hope this helps.

by ViolentMike on Oct 3, 2008 10:31 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Those percentages are off. They equal more than 100 percent.

by c-war on Oct 3, 2008 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nevermind, I forgot the odds makers take a percentage as well.

by c-war on Oct 3, 2008 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yup, that’s the reason C-war.

by ViolentMike on Oct 3, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep. The scabbiest ba$tards take around 8% in Ireland. Betfair.com is brilliant though. I only recently started putting some money on the fights to spice things up, I never really gambled before. It does make it more intense. Sucks when the last guy on your accumulator (parlay as you guys call it I think) bottles it.

by RobH86 on Oct 3, 2008 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

seems to be a consensus that if the fight remains standing, its to Daley’s advantage, even though Jake looks a little taller in the picture. and if the fight goes to the ground, its Jake’s advantage… so the big question in my mind is: WILL JAKE TAKE PAUL DALEY DOWN? i’m guessing that he will. The more aggressive Daley comes at him, the easier it will be. BUT if Daley comes out with a Machida game plan, Shield’s might have some trouble closing distance with the threat of 1 hitta quitta KO threat. Jake 2nd round kimura.

by coach ed papavitch fka kama kaze on Oct 3, 2008 1:51 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah but the problem I see for Paul is he does his damage on the inside a lot of time because he usually gives up a little reach to his opponent. Still, he can win this.

He would be a really top fighter at 155 in the UFC. I wish he’d make the move down…after a win over Shields!

by RobH86 on Oct 3, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

agree.. clinch is kinda risky for Daley. TD masters like GSP, Sherk, Kos, Shields floor people too easily, then its all downhill. if Paul wins somehow, it’ll be GODZILLA BIG! but i’m not doubting Jake. He’ll be ready for whatevers!

by coach ed papavitch fka kama kaze on Oct 3, 2008 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m really pumped for this one. It could be a great fight. I’m just excited to see how it plays out. I wonder will it start off cagey or will Semtex come out all guns blazing. There’s always that x-factor with Daley. Can’t wait.

by RobH86 on Oct 3, 2008 8:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Just had to return to say that Shields has no power whatsoever! And somebody realy needs to teach Daley how to avoid being mounted so easily!

by Dana's a crossdresser on Oct 5, 2008 5:37 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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