Elite XC Odds for Lawler vs Smith II

by James Iannotti on Jul 23, 2008 11:30 AM EDT Comment 63 comments

Elite XC odds for the "Unfinished Business" event from the Stockton Arena in Stockton, Calif., on July 26 are out.

Just a reminder that the sportsbook is always available for those fans who like to make fights nights that much more interesting.

It’s just cold hard numbers … and some possible big profits:

"Ruthless" Robbie Lawler	-210	BET NOW
Scott "Hands of Steel" Smith	+170	BET NOW
Jake Shields	-340	BET NOW
Nick "The Goat" Thompson	+260	BET NOW
Nick Diaz	-600	BET NOW
Thomas "Wildman" Denny	+400	BET NOW
Shayna Baszler	-200	BET NOW
Cristiane Cyborg	+160	BET NOW
Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva	-575	BET NOW
Justin Eilers	+375	BET NOW
Justin Eilers	+375	BET NOW
Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante	-500	BET NOW
Travis Galbraith	+350	BET NOW
Wilson Reis	-135	BET NOW
Bryan Caraway	+105	BET NOW

At first look -- and disclaimer here that I am no betting expert -- Wilson Reis at -135 looks like a fantastic play. He is an absolute stud. That's not taking anything away from Bryan Caraway because his record (9-2) indicates that he is a very good fighter. But Reis is huge for 145 pounds and he's lightning quick with a top notch submission game.

In my opinion, he's nearly a lock to win ... and certainly worth a bet at almost even money.

In addition, I like Robbie Lawler to win the rematch with Smith I know the first fight was super close, but I'm not sure if Lawler was ever in danger of being finished -- I can't say the same for Scott Smith.

At a little over 2 to 1 a bet on Lawler might be worth it ... literally.

Nick Thompson also has a much better chance against Jake Shields than the +260 the oddsmakers are giving him. I'm not saying he's going to win, but at that price, he's worth some consideration because the value is there.

If you're not familiar with the plus and minus odds system here's basically how it works:

The plus sign means that fighter is the underdog and the minus sign is for the favorite. It's a pretty simple system. It's easiest to use a base scale of $100. Meaning, if a fighter is listed at +150 you would win $150 dollars on a $100 bet. If a fighter is listed at -150 you would have to bet $150 in order to win $100. Obviously you don't have to bet in $100 increments.

It's just an easy way to evaluate the lines. Good luck, gambling degenerates maniacs.

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Comments

This will be a good event and the fights could be a little closer than the odds suggest!

I am not sure if I want to bet on this event!

Nick diaz has not looked good enough to make it worth risking $600 trying to win $100 by betting on Diaz….Its just not worth it, especially since Diaz doesnt really have real training camps because he fights like every 30 days. So logically he cant be as sharp as other fighters are when they have 2 months training camps.

Scott smith might be worth a small bet as a dog. Robbie was dominating but Smith was weathering the storm, and it only 1 big shot from smith to upsetthe champ. robbie doesnt have the best chin in the game. I watched Diablo drop him with a weak shot o the chin.

BigFoot wont loose. H continues to get better and better but I dont know if those odds are worth the risk…same goes gfor Jake sheilds (who is fighting a tough opponent).

Maybe just do A Parlay with a bunch f the favorites and call it a night!

by john on Jul 23, 2008 11:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Any word on which fight or fights Scumbag Shaw is interested in fixing? I won cash on Mimbo last time out because I knew the fix was in. That’s the only way to explain the Moustache-like officiating in that one.

by PW on Jul 23, 2008 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i will be attending this event live.

i already got my tickets in the mail two weeks ago[50tickets]

this night turned out better then expected. still mad that

king joke noons is a puss.

i got-

30,000k on robbie to win me 18,000

25,000k on shields to win me 12,000

10,000k on eilers to win me 60,000

and a straight up 15,000k parlay on-
diaz-shields-cyborg.

is it fair to say i am looking forward to a 35,000k profit payday?

i would say i win at least 20,000k.

i will be very happy if i get that upset and take home the bonus 60!

by ~stinky~fingers~ on Jul 23, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hey stinky, got an extra ticket? I’d love to go??? i’m one of the few guys who believes your rich, i can’t justify 700 for ring side though. be fun to watch an event with a felow mmamaniac, and Diaz is one of my favs!

by kevin on Jul 23, 2008 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sorry kev. all the tickets have faces.

i already had to shaft alot of peeps.

nothing for nothing- but u r one of the many peeps to call me bluff.

only one time i can remember but u said something about

me taking the lump sum and buying property in stockton.

or something like that. or how it did not add up to u?

i dont remember exactly and i dont care either.

u have always been cool aside from that time.

definitely not like some of my fans around here that

get at me every chance they get.

like they have no other thing to do but call me a fake

and a loser. and follow my posts with laughter.

i never instigate ever. but sometimes i gotta slap some

of these kids who think im joking.

by ~stinky~fingers~ on Jul 23, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

thats how he rolls first he talking smack than he see’s john and the other top guys taking to you so he jumps on

by roy on Jul 23, 2008 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, lump sum didn’t add up at the time, but if you gamble like you say, it does add up. I wasn’t taking that into consideration. No big deal, I’ll watch it at home! By the way, I’m one of the few guys to believe you!

by kevin on Jul 23, 2008 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What’s the point of always telling us how much you bet on mma?

by Haze on Jul 23, 2008 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i never took the lump sum.

i get a monthly check. i am a professional gambler[not only mma]

and i also own 8 houses. 5 i rent out and the other 2

are my moms and little sister.

i posted this before to u but it never came up.

by ~stinky~fingers~ on Jul 23, 2008 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So are you self made profesional gambler, or come from a rich family and just like to gamble?

by Haze on Jul 23, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i come from a poor family!

we couldnt even afford the ‘or’ on poor. so we were ‘po’

i won the lotto.

some people around here post their predictions and some

people post their bets.

i post my bets and predictions.

should i just stick to predictions?

this thread is about betting is is not?

by ~stinky~fingers~ on Jul 23, 2008 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you wanna make money bet opposite of stinky.. if those are his real bets i’ve never seen anyone lose so much in the last two events lol.. professional gambler lol

by Kory on Jul 23, 2008 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

huh?

the last 2 events i made over 30,000k profit.

i admit i got crushed on the ufn night.

but i made a killing on the affliction raking in 95,000k.

by ~stinky~fingers~ on Jul 23, 2008 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well if you won the lotto then good for you, I can’t hate on you for that when I bye tickets too.

by Haze on Jul 23, 2008 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

NOTE TO MMAMANI:

affliction bought 500,000 of their 2 million dollar gate…25% bought by promoter.
The article saying ppv’s topped 100,000 buys was owner/vice president of affliction saying it, and in next sentence says he won’t release #’s. why? if they did so well!
250,000 buys was break even point…BREAK EVEN
FEDOR DID NOT MAKE ONLY 300K, HE MADE 2 MILLUON TO SHOW!!!

by kevin on Jul 23, 2008 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

they prob really bought more seats then 25% of them.

-the vp of affliction did say it was his guess cause

the offical numbers have not come in yet.

he already said he would realese the numbers as soon as they come in.

i gaurantee he releases the ppv numbers[good or bad]

-fedor got a 2.5 millon doller signing bonus. for a 3 fight contract.

he and m1 also get ppv % aswell.

he only signed a 300,000 contract cause he wanted to look like

it was not about money to the americans.FACT

by ~stinky~fingers~ on Jul 23, 2008 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Typical UFC-hater response:

But Affliction has Trump! Trump has an endless supply of cash that he’ll keep pouring into Affliction no matter how much money they keep on losing!!

WAR PRIDE!… err… AFFLICTION!!!

by Pat on Jul 23, 2008 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

trump is probably getting paid for affliction using his name. Don’t let trump fool you, he makes money, he won’t ride too long in a sinking ship

by kevin on Jul 23, 2008 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey Stinky, yes this thread is about betting, but you let us know on all threads. And yes I think your full of sh!t. I’ll be sure to remind you next time you let us know about your betting on other threads.

by Rubberman on Jul 23, 2008 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

plus where are you getting your FACTS from kevin please post a link or its just kevin saying it show me where they paid fedor 2 million and all the links to they needing 2500000 buy to break even

by roy on Jul 23, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think most of the things Kevin is asking about have been posted on Mania. Look in the back log of articles on Affliction to find it

by Bic on Jul 23, 2008 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

WEll if you were to place a bet, would you bet on Obama or McCain? WTF?

by TheNegation on Jul 23, 2008 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

how’s that roy…changed my name!

by kevin doesn't know shit, but roy knows less on Jul 23, 2008 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i know more than you obviously, but keep crying and dodging your bet it only shows how weak you are, if i lost i would have took it like a man and nor complained or hated on you one bit but i am glad you are showing everyone your true colors. weak

by roy on Jul 23, 2008 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i’ll be happy to change it…when the #‘s are in! calm down roy, I could care less, I HOPE affliction succeeds, I just don’t see it!

by kevin on Jul 23, 2008 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i don’t think you want them to succeed, all you do is post hate you talk smack, all your posts smell of ufc nuts.

by roy on Jul 23, 2008 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like all mma events, sorry if I felt affliction was weak!

by kevin on Jul 23, 2008 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I bet you could place your money on Jake Shields and Nick Diaz eh?

by TheNegation on Jul 23, 2008 11:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Rumble Johnson’s agent is trying to get the BAS ruling overturned!

by john on Jul 23, 2008 11:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He should get it too. That was BS ruling. TKO ? yeah sure. Even Burns new how it went down.. I was surprised at that ruling.

by PhilQNY on Jul 23, 2008 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As much class as Rumble showed at the end of the fight, he had to be absolutely fuming at that decision and at Pokey Burns. Hopefully the powers that be can undo Moustache’s miscarriage of justice.

by PW on Jul 23, 2008 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was just about to start talking about the odds to this event in the Weigh Ins thread.

I really don’t know much about Reis, and I didn’t see his undercard fight from the last event.

There are alot of big favorites on this card which brings one word to my brain = PARLAY!!!

The odds on BetUs are slightly different than the odds above.

As of right now, I am leaning towards a 4 fight parlay:

Feijao
Silva
Shields
Lawler

Adding Nick Diaz at -700 to the parlay does not make it much more profitable. Plus, he hasn’t looked “great” as of late and Wildman is a veteran. If I can get Denny at +550, belive it or not, but I’d bet $5 on him. Even though the Diaz’s are basically my favorite fighters. As of late, Nick has looked susceptible to KO’s, even though he’s never been KO’d before. Lucky for Diaz though, Denny isn’t known to be a KO artist.

Besides, I don’t need to have money on the line to be screaming my heart out at the TV for Nick to win.

Feijao is looking to be the next great LHW. Silva should come close to killing Eilers. Jake Shields is the man in Elite. He is FINALLY getting to fight for his belt. I do not see him losing, although, the Goat is no walk through. Lawler is on my parlay to add some value to the bet. He was in control of the majority of the first fight. Gotta go…

by ViolentMike on Jul 23, 2008 11:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I heard Keith Jardine Vs Brandon Vera UFC 89

by mrfancypants on Jul 23, 2008 12:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hope this one’s true. Vera will show Jardine what Filipinos are made of…

by TheNegation on Jul 23, 2008 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

boring fighters!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by TKO on Jul 23, 2008 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just kidding if so I see Vera winning it.

by TKO on Jul 23, 2008 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

did you guys read where affliction bought 500,000 dollars worth of their 2.1 million dollar gate? that’s 25% of the gate paid for by the promoter. And the vice president of affliction saying “we surpassed ppv #‘s, but I won’t release them” is like saying we did as bad as people thought, but I’ll spin it, because who will know the difference. Put 2 and 2 together guys!

by kevin on Jul 23, 2008 12:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Man, did they really get some, or lose some on this one? Can Affliction even keep this up for a while you think? I don’t think so. So support Affliction if you love your MMA.

by TheNegation on Jul 23, 2008 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

nope, support the ufc if u are a fan of mma, I want to see fedor, arlovski and co. under the same banner.

if affliction didn’t exist they would all be in the ufc. and you are supporting them?

by shamo84 on Jul 23, 2008 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

keep them coming kevin.. I am with you, let us bring affliction down!

are we ever gonna know the actual numbers?

by shamo84 on Jul 23, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

best way put, if your not in the UFC your “an up and comer” or a can

by Ro-J on Jul 23, 2008 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no they wouldn’t be, before there was affliction they did not have fedor and they won’t even sign barnett

by roy on Jul 23, 2008 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ro-j and what about dream and is barnett fedor lindland and many other top fighters up and comers,maybe your a up and comer to the sport and don’t understand that there is alot of talent outside of the ufc and alot of guys in the ufc are not that good

by roy on Jul 23, 2008 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BURN!

And how many of the Top 10 LW’s and HW’s does the UFC have?

Not even 1/3.

That’s correct!

by ViolentMike on Jul 23, 2008 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

how many times are you going to post the same post, and on every thread.

by roy on Jul 23, 2008 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey Roy, you call me a hater, but why would I concede a bet when the FACTS aren’t in? If I’d done that before, there are bets that I was sure I lost, but ended up winning (celtics down 24 for instance). Calm yourself buddy, I have no gripe or care if I lose this bet. As far as other things I’m saying, do some research. Affliction has come out and said they bought more than 25% of their entire gate…thats ridiculous! Randy said UFC wasn’t paying him, UFC had cancelled checks. If you believe everything a company says, I got a bridge to sell you. Just curious…seriously, how old are you and where are you from? I gamble every day, and have for 15_+ years, changing my name is the least of my concerns! You have some good thoughts sometimes, but you’re riding me too hard bro, let the actual #‘s come in, and I’ll be happy to change my name. I was originally going on the fact that fedor/Lindland did 15,000 buys. By the way another quote from affliction is they needed 250k to BREAK EVEN!

by kevin on Jul 23, 2008 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

haha. yes! im with u 100%.

well said-

thats what im talking about kev. sometimes u just gotta slap them.

crazy fans. u seem to have a few aswell.

i hope he can read cause that was as blunt as it gets.

this roy character seems to be the prez of your fanclub.

i do believe u will b changing ur name cause i think affliction

will do alright. but they still wont make money of the first show.

this guy does not need to follow u around like a lost puppy.

some people?

-“celtics down 24”.haha i love it!

great post.

by ~stinky~fingers~ on Jul 23, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he didn’t slap me down but he took a beating and did not lose like a man, thats my only problem with him, he likes to talk smack but can’t take any of it back.

by roy on Jul 23, 2008 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

read his post agian. he said he would man up.

he does not have to anything until #s are in.

thats like me asking my book keep to give me my cash on fedor

during the barnett fight.

not going to happen.

u follow kevins posts like he ran over ur dog.

by ~stinky~fingers~ on Jul 23, 2008 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To be fair, no need to change your name until the officials are in, but Kev u r still going to loose that bet!

by john on Jul 23, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

by the way, go to cage potato for all the info your asking for, and it was reported by every mma site that tim got 800,000 to show and 200,000 to win and fedor got at least 2 million. the only reason he got a “base” pay of 300,000 is to look not greedy to US fans.

by kevin on Jul 23, 2008 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

post the links, and your the one flip flopping you said your changing your name yesterday thats the only reason i said anything, wait till the numbers are in thats fine.and i don’t beleave everthing i read like you do off the internet and as far as how old i am and where i am from i don’t roll like that but i’m sure you find a nice guy someday,but i am probally older than you and i’m right here in cali.

by roy on Jul 23, 2008 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m 31 bro and don’t roll that way either (I’m married) nice try though, where in cali. You don’t believe direct quotes from affliction vice president? too lazy to type cagepotato.com? as far as following john? I don’t get it? I seem to be one of a handful of guys with original thoughts, and by the way, when I said I’d change my name yesterday, I was saying you’re probably right. Why would I concede before the #’s are in.

by kevin on Jul 23, 2008 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

cool, i’m 36 from L.A. but living near palm springs right now. i am not trying to jump all over you but you like to throw in some jabs in your somments as well so its not like i’m the only one talking some trash here.i have been watching since ufc one and knew about bjj before that one even came out i watch all mma at any level and any combat sport even sumo wrestling.you know your shit but to me seem to lean toward a ufc guy.

by roy on Jul 23, 2008 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hey roy.

u should read kevins first post above.

-slap~slap~maybe like 20 times~slap~slap~.

u should have never even replied.

he got u bad!

im right here in cali too!

-stockton rep! 24 years of age.

and i dont think he asked if u pushed pooh.

but thats maybe what u read?

like i said read it about 20 times first.

by ~stinky~fingers~ on Jul 23, 2008 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BURN!!

by john on Jul 23, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Slow news day ay. not that this isnt news. anyhoot heres a little game my friend and i like to play. take three celebraties turn them into the post fight interviewer, color comentator, and play by play…

by doomdoom on Jul 23, 2008 1:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs