Strikeforce predictions and preview for 'Melendez vs Thomson' on June 27

June has been a busy month in the world of professional mixed martial arts and that trend will continue as Strikeforce will close out the first month of summer with a long awaited event of its own on Friday the 27th.
The promotion's lightweight champion Gilbert "El Nino" Melendez (14-1) will put his title on the line against the extremely tough and talented Josh "The Punk" Thomson (14-2) in the main event of what promises to be a very entertaining night of fights from the HP Pavilion in San Jose, Calif.
With only one day separating us from Strikeforce: "Melendez vs. Thomson," let's take a closer look at the action and provide predictions for each of the main card bouts.
Lightweight Champion Gilbert "El Nino" Melendez vs. Josh "The Punk" Thomson
"El Nino" -- who is a high level Brazilian jiu-jitsu player under the tutelage of the esteemed Cesar Gracie -- started his career in October of 2002, proceeding to win his first 13 fights. During that span he notched notable wins over UFC lightweight Clay Guida and Pride FC veteran Tatsuya Kawajiri.
In fact, he appeared to be close to unbeatable before dropping a unanimous decision this past New Year's Eve to wrestling stud Mitsuhiro Ishida (16-4-1) -- a fighter known for his takedowns and excellent cardio.
Speaking of fighters with strong wrestling and excellent cardio, his opponent, Josh Thomson, boasts those same qualities. The difference between Thomson and Ishida, however, is that Thomson also has very good stand up, which means his all around game is probably just a little bit better.
"The Punk" trains at American Kickboxing Academy -- a place known for taking great wrestlers and turning them into all around dynamic fighters with very good stand up (see Jon Fitch, Josh Koshcheck and Phil Baroni to name a few). His resume is equally as impressive as Melendez's. His hit list includes wins over former WEC lightweight champ Rob McCullough, UFC fighter Hermes Franca, Duane Ludwig and Nam Phan.
Thomson's two losses were to Yves Edwards (KO) and Clay Guida (decision).
This is about as tough a fight to predict as there is. Melendez has world class jiu jitsu, but he wins most of his fights by technical knock out. Thomson has great wrestling and kickboxing, but he wins most of his fights by submission.
Something has got to give.
Melendez doesn't want to get caught in the same type of fight he had with Ishida (a wrestling match) and it's doubtful Thomson wants to find out who's jiu-jitsu is better. Therefore, expect to see a lot of stand up in this fight. Granted, it is a five round fight, so unless there's an early knockout, the fight will more than likely hit the mat at some point. I just don't think we'll see Thomson get submitted for the first time in his career, nor will we see "The Punk" execute the dreaded lay and pray.
Both guys pack a powerful punch, so I'm guessing this one won't go the distance either. In short, whoever comes to the fight with better stand up and better cardio should win. Melendez has very good Muay Thai skills and has eight career technical knockouts compared to Thomson's three. We've seen Thomson get knocked out before, but we have never seen that from "El Nino."
I'm sure Melendez doesn't ever want to get outworked in a fight again like he did with Ishida. If ever there were a loss for a great champion to learn from, it was that one. As long as he comes into this fight in top shape, I think the champ will leave San Jose with his gold.
Prediction: Gilbert "El Nino" Melendez via technical knockout in round three or four
Light Heavyweight Champion Bobby Soutworth (8-5) vs. Anthony "El Toro" Ruiz (20-10)
Ruiz defeated Southworth in a non-title bout back in November after Southworth sustained a fight-ending cut. A rematch at the time seemed inevitable and now there's a world championship on the line.
Ruiz is terrible on the ground. He's been submitted eight times in his career. And with Southworth having won four of his eight professional victories by tap out it could be a big factor. Southworth likes to stand in most of his fights, but last time he did that with "El Toro" it didn't end up to good for him.
With that said, Southworth is no submission whiz.
It would not be smart for Southworth, however, to trade blows with a powerful guy like Ruiz. If he does decide to stand and trade, he's going to sleep. At least by working some takedowns and looking for some submissions he'll stay away from Ruiz's strength and stay near his weakness.
It's a long five round championship fight, so if Southworth is smart (which is debatable), he'll work the takedowns like he did against Vernon White in December of 2006 when he won the belt. If not, like I said, night night.
Prediction: Ruiz via technical knockout in round two
Nam Phan (14-4) vs. Billy Evangelista (6-0)
This should be a high paced fight with some slick jiu-jitsu and crisp striking. Both fighters have solid grappling backgrounds, but can hold their own in the stand up department as well. This fight could challenge the main event for fight of the night with the electrifying intensity both guys bring to the cage every time out.
Nam has the experience. He's been fighting MMA professionally since 2001 and has lost two very close decisions to former WEC champion Rob McCullough and now number one contender for the Strikeforce belt, Josh Thomson. He's also been in there with JZ Cavalcante, albeit in a loss, but that experience is invaluable.
Evangelista is coming off a third round knockout win over Marlon Sims in March at Strikeforce: "Shamrock vs. Le," and before that won a split decision over Clint Coronel in September. He has a lot of talent and enormous upside potential, however this is a big step up in competition for him.
Nam knows how to handle adversity because he's dealt with it before against super tough competition. Evangelista, on the other hand, has not. This fight will be a barn burner, but ultimately, Phan will win a close decision.
Prediction: Phan via unanimous decision
Joe "Diesel" Riggs (27-10) vs. Luke Stewart (5-1)
This was supposed to be Luke Stewart against Shonie Carter, but "Mr. International" shattered his knuckle and Riggs stepped in on short notice. There's a bit of a weight difference so the two agreed to fight at a catchweight of 178 pounds.
Both of these guys are coming off losses. Luke Stewart lost for the first time in his career to Tiki Ghosn at Strikeforce: "Shamrock vs. Le" by decision, and Riggs was forced to quit after a back injury was reaggravated in a fight against Cory Devela at Strikeforce at the Dome.
Stewart is a great jiu-jitsu practioner who hones his skills on a daily basis with the likes of Jake Shields, Nick and Nate Diaz, and Gilbert Melendez over at Gracie jiu-jitsu. However, Riggs isn't too shabby when it comes to submissions himself. He's won 12 times via tap out in his career. I don't think he'll be submitting a guy the caliber of Luke Stewart, but his size, strength, and experience might just be enough to keep the talented Stewart from submitting him.
Riggs has a strong stand up game with big knockout power. Stewart will tell you his stand up game is something he's been working on and is not a weakness, but against a guy with the experience of Riggs, it could prove to be a problem.
So we have a striker vs. a grappler, but since Riggs has a decent submission game of his own and Stewart is still developing his stand up skills, Riggs' strength over powers Stewart's. I like Luke Stewart and thought he had a great chance to beat Shonie Carter, unfortunately, Riggs is a different fighter ... and a bad match up.
Prediction: Joe Riggs via technical knockout in round two
Raymond "The Real Deal" Daniels (0-0) vs. Jeremiah Metcalf (8-4)
Daniels is a world class kickboxer making his MMA debut. He's being compared to Cung Le and some think his potential is even greater. His confidence is through the roof. He's gone as far as to say, "I want to become the greatest fighter of all time. Anybody that steps in front of me is just gonna be on my next highlight reel."
Despite this being his first professional mixed martial arts fight, talk like that makes anything less than a knockout against a decent but no where near stellar Jeremiah Metcalf a big disappointment. Put up or shut up time.
Prediction: Daniels via first round knockout
Here's the rest of the card for Strikeforce: "Melendez vs. Thompson:"
150 lbs (women's match): Miesha Tate (1-1) vs Elaina Maxwell (2-2)
135 lbs: Chris Cariaso (6-1) vs Anthony "Antdawg" Figueroa (4-2)
190 lbs: Jesse Gillespie (1-1) vs Dave Martin (0-1)
155 lbs: Bobby Stack (4-1) vs Jose Palacios (3-0)
140 lbs: Brian Caraway (4-2) vs Alvin Cacdac (4-3)
170 lbs: Cyrillo Padhillo (1-2) vs Jesse Jones (2-0)
155 lbs: Eric Jacob (1-3) vs Alexander Trivino (1-0)
190 lbs: Jorge Interiano (0-0) vs Travis Johnson (0-0)
Strikeforce: "Melendez vs. Thomson" will air live on HDNet at 10:30 p.m ET on Friday, June 27.
It's going to be an action packed night of fights -- there are some really good match ups set to go off tomorrow night. At the very least the main event is a can't miss.
Therefore, set the DVRs if you must, but don't miss the long-awaited lightweight championship fight between Gilbert Melendez and Josh Thomson. And make sure to check in at MMAmania.com before, during, and after the show for all the coverage you can handle.
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25 comments
Comments
Gilbert Melendez -385
Josh Thomson +295
Joe Riggs -360
Luke Stewart +270
Bobby Southworth -250
Anthony Ruiz +190
Nam Phan -150
Billy Evangelista +120
Elaina Maxwell -285
Miesha Tate +225
DREAM 5 Odds
Tatsuya Kawajiri -135 Eddie Alvarez +105
Shinya Aoki -325
Caol Uno +250
by john on Jun 26, 2008 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I REALLY wish that this event was taking place like 1.5 weeks later. Last night I just made the call to switch from Comcast to ATT U-verse. Now I’ll have the internet at the house again, still have every channel offered, PLUS I’LL KNOW HAVE HDNET AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by ViolentMike on Jun 26, 2008 10:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I still do not have HDNET! WTYF!!
Josh is a tough fighter but I will be very surprised if Gilbert looses!
by john on Jun 26, 2008 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2zzx3_alistair-overeem-vs-sergei-khariton_sport
sergei is going to be fighting silva
by roy on Jun 26, 2008 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want to see Daniels fight so badly.
by "Mr. NC-17" on Jun 26, 2008 10:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’d love to see Joe Riggs win in dominating fashion, the guy’s had a pretty tough break from losing a child to injuring his back in a match that he would’ve won, so, for the record, WAR DIESEL!
by Primary_Knukkle on Jun 26, 2008 11:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I can’t wait to see this card. I am pumped about the Thompson fight and also to see the Pha vs. Evangalista
by StayDown on Jun 26, 2008 11:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Of course I’m looking forward to the main event, if you aren’t, than you are NOT an MMA fan, you are just a fan of the UFC.
I am also looking forward to seeing Raymond Daniel’s mma debut. I want to find betting odds for this card.
Too bad I wasn’t getting U-Verse installed today or tomorrow. Now I gotta tray and figure out where the heck I’m going to watch this.
Also, The Fight Network. That is a television channel now, correct? I ask because Comcast never offered it. But I am curious as to if ATT does. I am getting every channel they offer including all the movie and sports channels. If I gain that channel to, I’m going to piss my pants in pure excitement!
by ViolentMike on Jun 26, 2008 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Fight Network is a Canadian TV channel.
I have HDNet with Time Warner.
And no..I am not just a UFC fan but that does not mean that everyone loves the main event of every show. I have seen some main events that I could care less about.
by StayDown on Jun 26, 2008 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My bad StayDown, I wasn’t referring to you when I said “you”, I meant it in a general way, like whomever is reading it.
by ViolentMike on Jun 27, 2008 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why would you have Phil Baroni grouped in with John Fitch and Josh Koscheck when listing ‘dynamic fighters with very good stand up’ from American Kickboxing Academy? I guess the guy that wrote the piece missed his last 2 or 3 fights or just has a man crush on the .500 Baroni.
by the_mexicutioner on Jun 26, 2008 11:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Right??? I’m with you on this one.
by ViolentMike on Jun 26, 2008 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The point was that those guys are all strong collegiate wrestlers that developed good striking while training with AKA. It’s hard to argue Baroni – a two time All-American wrestler in college – didn’t turn into a very good striker during his time with the guys at AKA. Just because Baroni has lost a few fights recently doesn’t change that, does it?
by James Iannotti on Jun 26, 2008 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lost a very few fights recently? You are aware that he is 10-10 right? And normaly a fighter that is considered ‘very good’ or ‘dynamic’ does not have a .500 record. There is no way you can group Baroni in with Fitch or Koscheck. Its a no brainer. Either one of those guys would kill Baroni at a catch wieght. Baroni is not an “all around good fighter” as implied in the piece. He talks a lot of crap, makes a total d-bag of him self in interviwes and in his fight enterances, then gets knocked out. Sounds pretty well rounded and dynamic to me.
by the_mexicutioner on Jun 26, 2008 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you mex’ Barroni is not only a ‘C’ class fighter he’s a douche bag among douche bags’’ of human beings.
by THORAZINE on Jun 26, 2008 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Once again friend you are missing the point. In no way did I ever say Baroni would beat Fitch or Koshcheck. What I said is that AKA is known for taking fighters with strong wrestling backgrounds (which all three of those fighters have) and turning them into more dynamic fighters with very good stand up. I didn’t say Baroni was a very good fighter, you’re making that part up. I just said that training at AKA helped him develop into a more dynamic fighter with good stand up as opposed to just a straight wrestler. The point wasn’t to say Baroni was as good a fighter as Fitch or Koshcheck. The point was to say they all were very good college wrestlers that have developed into more well-rounded fighters by honing their striking skills at American Kickboxing Academy. What are you not getting about that sir?
by James Iannotti on Jun 26, 2008 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
“a place known for taking great wrestlers and turning them into all around dynamic fighters with very good stand up (see Jon Fitch, Josh Koshcheck and Phil Baroni to name a few)” … This is what you wrote, its a direct copy and paste from above. I guess what Im not getting, as well as many other people that would read that statement, is how you figure that Baroni can be catagorized with the likes of Fitch and Koscheck. These are your word above, not mine. Again, in my opinion, and I think it would be hard to disagree on this one, is that Baroni is by no means an all around dynamic fighter or a fighter with great stand up, as you seems to be your opinion as stated above. If Baroni did possess these traits or any real fighting abilities at all he would not be 10-10.
by the_mexicutioner on Jun 26, 2008 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok man, I’m not going to keep typing the same thing over and over. I’ve stated what the point I was making was by grouping Baroni, Fitch and Koshcheck together, and you copying and pasting it only confirms my point was made.
I’m in no way a fan of Phil Baroni, but you keep mentioning his record. He’s lost to some pretty good competition. I would say losing to Matt Lindland, Evan Tanner, Kazuo Misaki, Frank Shamrock, Kala Hose, Joey Villasenor and them guys is nothing to really be ashamed of. I’ve never said Baroni is the greatest fighter in the world or anything like that, but the guy has good wrestling and good stand up. Losing fights to good competition doesn’t take away from that, at least I don’t think so. Watch some old highlights of Baroni from the days when he was first training with AKA and you’ll probably understand my point better.
I stand by what I wrote, and find it laughable that you, Mr. One Man Boycott, thinks you can speak for “many other people that read this.” This is perhaps the worst back and forth I’ve ever had on this site. You’re taking a point I was making about American Kickboxing Academy helping wrestlers develop better striking, and turning it into me calling Phil Baroni as good as Jon Fitch and Josh Koshcheck. I laugh.
by James Iannotti on Jun 26, 2008 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I always wondered what happened to Riggs. I hope he can pull of a win.
by Anthony on Jun 27, 2008 1:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I always wondered what happened to Riggs. I hope he can pull off a win.
by Anthony on Jun 27, 2008 1:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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