UFC Fight Night betting odds for Kenny Florian vs. Joe Lauzon fight card
by MMAmania.com on Apr 1, 2008 10:39 AM EDT
28 comments
Desert Dog here and back with some quick tips and smart bets for UFC Fight Night 13 tomorrow night (April 2) at the Broomfield Event Center in Broomfield, Colo.
The sportsbooks were slow this time around, releasing their numbers a bit late. However, it has no impact on getting some action before the showtime — there are some juicy betting opportunities in this unbelievably packed fight card.
Not to gloat, but I will be in Colorado to enjoy this one live, which means I'm heading out in eight hours.
Therefore, I'm going with a reduced analysis this time around and just cover the fights on which I'm betting. This truncated format will allow me to run through how I come up with my own probabilities for fights to decide if there is value in each bet.
Besides, I doubt most of you want to read about 12 different match ups!
It's definitely tough to pick the strongest bet on this card. There are obviously some lopsided match ups, but of course the odds on those are -600 to -800, which is not what I'm looking for.
I've picked three fights to bet on below, but remember that there are numerous betting options from which to choose. Just do your research, shop the odds (BetUS.com or Bodog.com are nice places to start) and, as always, wager only with what you are willing to lose.
Let's get to it:
Desert Dog's smart bets for Ultimate Fight Night 13:
(Note: + = Underdog; - = Favorite)
Alves (+150) bet $100 to win $150
Edgar (-165) bet $100 to win $60.61
Thomas (-180) bet $100 to win $55.56
NOTE: MMAmania.com recommends BetUS.com to place wagers (FREE $75 play with a deposit of $50 or more if you join today — you actually make money!). However, Bodog.com is also a good place to bet and compare odds.
Let's now move on to a more detailed breakdown of the fights for those bettors who require a little more reassurance.
Karo Parisyan (-180) vs. Thiago Alves (+150)
Decision: 50 percent chance of happening, Alves wins this outcome 51 percent of the time.
When it comes to action and control there's a reason Karo has won so many fights, even if it is usually by decision. His throws, takedowns and ground work keep his fights very interesting and entertaining. This time out, however, he just seems to be effusing the same confidence (unheard of for Karo). I think Thiago will actually push the pace in this fight and if he can't put Karo out, his wicked leg kicks and fast hands will score him the win.
Technical knockout: 35 percent chance of happening, Alves wins this outcome 90 percent of the time.
Karo's record says it all ... he's NEVER had a technical knockout and it's real unlikely he's going to get his first one against Alves. This is, however, the way Thiago finishes the majority of his fights.
Submission: 15 percent chance of happening, Parisyan wins this outcome 80 percent of the time.
Karo is an excellent grappler and has very strong submissions, but he just hasn't been able to finish with them. Thiago's strength will likely keep him safe in this fight.
Alves should win this fight about 60 percent of the time, so odds of -145 or better would have value.
Prediction: Alves via technical knockout (CLICK TO BET NOW)
Frankie Edgar (-165) vs. Gray Maynard (+145)
Decision: 65 percent chance of happening, Edgar wins this outcome 65 percent of the time.
There's a pretty good chance this ones going the distance and it will be a battle between Edgar's superior standup and Gray's wrestling. Edgar takedown defense and amazing scrambling gives him a slight edge over the distance.
Technical knockout: 20 percent chance of happening, Edgar wins this outcome 65 percent of the time.
Edgar's advantage here is in technique and speed, but Maynard does have better power. After rewatching Edgar vs. Fisher, as well as the fight against Mark Bocek, it's clear that "The Answer" is adept on his feet.
Submission: 15 percent chance of happening, Edgar wins this outcome 50 percent of the time.
Neither fighter is really strong in the submission department, but both have excellent defenses. When this one is on the ground you're more likely to see ground and pound than a triangle.
Edgar should win this fight about 62.75 percent of the time, so odds of -165 or better would have value.
Prediction: Edgar via decision (CLICK TO BET NOW)
Din Thomas (-180) vs. Josh Neer (+150)
Decision: 40 percent chance of happening, Thomas wins this outcome 70 percent of the time.
Din has better hands, kicks, footwork, takedown defense, and jiu-jitsu. Neer will have the strength advantage, but in the end Din will be working for the finish both on the feet and on the ground and it will show on the scorecards at the end of each round.
Technical knockout: 20 percent chance of happening, Thomas wins this outcome 55 percent of the time.
Din definitely has better hands and much better kicks, but Neer's power, strong chin, and brawler attitude make him dangerous on the feet.
Submission: 40 percent chance of happening, Thomas wins this outcome 80 percent of the time.
Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt against a brawler — not hard to come up with a number for this one.
Thomas should win this fight about 71 percent of the time, so odds of -245 or better would have value.
Prediction: Thomas via submission (CLICK TO BET NOW)
That about does it for this installment of betting tips and advice. Remember to bet smart.
Betting is not for everyone. But if you want to take a stab at it head over to BetUs.com (Sign up today and get a FREE $75 play) or to compare competitive MMA lines visit Bodog.com.
Enjoy the fights and good luck. Feel free to leave UFC Fight Night 13 predictions and other thoughts in the comments section below.
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I hope people who like Din Thomas got their money in early. His odds on Bodog dropped from -160 to -180 overnight. Edgar dropped from -175 to -185.
My super duper upset prediction is Samy “I’m French” Schiavo ( 400) taking out Clay Guida.
by Matt D. on Apr 1, 2008 11:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I WANT THE FRANKIE EDGAR FIGHT ODDS TO APPEAR ON BETUS!!!!! I’m getting angry. They better have them up by tomorrow. I do not see Frankie Edgard losing this fight, and at only -165 I would bet ALOT of money on it. I thought he would be like -350 in that fight. Looks like I’m opening a new account on Bodog (I bet on the Kentucky Derby, Preekness and Belmont several times years back)
by ViolentMike on Apr 1, 2008 11:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My site has Karo as a plus-130 underdog. I’m on that like a fat kid on a cupcake.
by PW on Apr 1, 2008 11:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My site has Karo as a plus-130 underdog. I’m on that like a fat kid on a cupcake.
PW: Karo will NOT win that fight!
by john on Apr 1, 2008 11:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I WANT THE FRANKIE EDGAR FIGHT ODDS TO APPEAR ON BETUS!!!!! I’m getting angry. They better have them up by tomorrow. I do not see Frankie Edgard losing this fight, and at only -165 I would bet ALOT of money on it. I thought he would be like -350 in that fight. Looks like I’m opening a new account on Bodog (I bet on the Kentucky Derby, Preekness and Belmont several times years back)
Edgar is -185 on BoDog.
by Sean F. on Apr 1, 2008 11:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
DesertDog,
I’m not sure what sort of fan reads this site (and your betting columns), but YES, we WOULD like to read analysis of 12 different matchups.
Tell the truth man, you gave us a reduced writeup so you could get out the door to Colorado. It’s cool!
Haha have fun at the fights, and post some stuff for those of us to read who can’t be there, and we’ll call it even.
by TeamPriapism on Apr 1, 2008 11:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i agree with the Edgar odds being very favorable. Personally i like the Thomas odds as well. Probly gonna put some cash down on both.
by Luke64 on Apr 1, 2008 11:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Guys who say Karo wont win and site “Who has he beat?” need to ask the question… “Who has Alves beat?”
I dont understand would Alves beat Diego??? I see them on par, and I think Karo has gotten better and more driven to prove he is the #1 contender… He isnt stupid or desperate. He has good people behind him and he wouldnt take a RISK at losing but would take a fight that appears like one.
Anyhow I can see KFLO beating Lauzon via Submission in the first round now that I think about it more.
by Yikes on Apr 1, 2008 12:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My site has Karo as a plus-130 underdog. I’m on that like a fat kid on a cupcake.
PW: Karo will NOT win that fight!
I got $25 that says he will. ;)
by PW on Apr 1, 2008 12:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My pridictions
155 lbs.: Kenny Florian (7-3) vs. Joe Lauzon (16-3) Fen Flow
170 lbs.: Karo Parisyan (18-4) vs. Thiago Alves (13-3)Karo
205 lbs.: Matt Hamill (3-1) vs. Tim Boetsch (7-1) Tim
155 lbs.: Nate Diaz (8-2) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (11-3) Kurt
155 lbs.: Frank Edgar (8-0) vs. Gray Maynard (4-0)Gray
205 lbs.: Houston Alexander (8-2) vs. James Irvin (13-4) Houston
155 lbs.: Marcus Aurelio (15-5) vs. Ryan Roberts (8-2) Marcus
155 lbs.: Din Thomas (20-7) vs. Josh Neer (23-6-1)Neer
155 lbs.: Manny Gamburyan (7-2) vs. Jeff Cox (9-4)Manny
155 lbs.: Clay Guida (22-9) vs. Samy Schiavo (10-4)Clay
170 lbs.: George Sotiropoulos (8-2) vs. Roman Mitichyan (5-1)Roman
170 lbs.: Tommy Speer (9-2) vs. Anthony Johnson (4-1)Tommy
by TKO on Apr 1, 2008 12:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My pridictions
155 lbs.: Kenny Florian (7-3) vs. Joe Lauzon (16-3) Fen Flow
170 lbs.: Karo Parisyan (18-4) vs. Thiago Alves (13-3)Karo
205 lbs.: Matt Hamill (3-1) vs. Tim Boetsch (7-1) Tim
155 lbs.: Nate Diaz (8-2) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (11-3) Kurt
155 lbs.: Frank Edgar (8-0) vs. Gray Maynard (4-0)Gray
205 lbs.: Houston Alexander (8-2) vs. James Irvin (13-4) Houston
155 lbs.: Marcus Aurelio (15-5) vs. Ryan Roberts (8-2) Marcus
155 lbs.: Din Thomas (20-7) vs. Josh Neer (23-6-1)Neer
155 lbs.: Manny Gamburyan (7-2) vs. Jeff Cox (9-4)Manny
155 lbs.: Clay Guida (22-9) vs. Samy Schiavo (10-4)Clay
170 lbs.: George Sotiropoulos (8-2) vs. Roman Mitichyan (5-1)Roman
170 lbs.: Tommy Speer (9-2) vs. Anthony Johnson (4-1)Tommy
Not to nit pick or anything put some of the records that you posted are rather unaccurate, as well where did you get your predictions?
by MrLion on Apr 1, 2008 12:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
mr lion you have no idea how he picked the fights..go back to plugging websites
by kory klinger on Apr 1, 2008 1:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
bodoglife.com has Manny Gamburyan as a minus 800 favorite !!!!! LOL!!!!!
Houston Alexander @ minus 260
Joe Lauzon @ plus 180
by kama kaze on Apr 1, 2008 1:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Edgar is -185 on BoDog.
Then he moved up to -200. Freaking BetUs had him open up at -220. Oh well. Those odds are still well worth it.
by ViolentMike on Apr 1, 2008 2:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
its bodoglife.com – not bodog.com… just FYI
by kama kaze on Apr 1, 2008 2:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I GOT A BIG QUESTION HERE REGARDING BETUS
A few weeks ago I put in a parlay bet for Joe Lauzon and the Under 1.5 rounds. I just went to put in another parlay bet on Karo and the over 2.5 rounds. However, it did not let me enter the bet because it was for the same event. The same thing happened when I tried to pick Houston Alexander and the Under.
But then I tried to do the Joe Lauzon parlay again, and it accepts it.
Does anyone have any insight on this? If Lauzon wins in the first round am I not getting paid at my 5.5 to 1 odds???
I NEED some help from someone that has had a BetUs account for a longer period of time. I just opened one up there prior to the Giants SuperBowl win.
by ViolentMike on Apr 1, 2008 2:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Mania,
Do you possibly know the answer to my above question.
Fuck Shit – that way you will read my comment!!! (awaiting moderation)
by ViolentMike on Apr 1, 2008 3:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I GOT A BIG QUESTION HERE REGARDING BETUS
A few weeks ago I put in a parlay bet for Joe Lauzon and the Under 1.5 rounds. I just went to put in another parlay bet on Karo and the over 2.5 rounds. However, it did not let me enter the bet because it was for the same event. The same thing happened when I tried to pick Houston Alexander and the Under.
But then I tried to do the Joe Lauzon parlay again, and it accepts it.
Does anyone have any insight on this? If Lauzon wins in the first round am I not getting paid at my 5.5 to 1 odds???
I NEED some help from someone that has had a BetUs account for a longer period of time. I just opened one up there prior to the Giants SuperBowl win.
VM: I bet 2 parlays:
Lauzon/Unders
Houston/unders
and it accepted both of them. Call the betUS #, they will put you on hold for like an hour but then you wlil get a hold of someone that can help you. That site blocks me from doing things all the time and then I call customer service and they straighten it out, but its a Hassel…but you got to call them!
by john on Apr 1, 2008 3:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Very surprised that no one noticed this yet.
This thread is for UFN Betting Tips. Yet the image is for UFC83.
Oh wait, that may just be a BetUs banner. Do they not have one for UFN 13? Poster’s with Lauzon and Florian’s face probably wouldn’t go over to well with the general public…
by ViolentMike on Apr 1, 2008 3:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not to nit pick or anything put some of the records that you posted are rather unaccurate, as well where did you get your predictions?
These UFC records are different from site to site, I’m not sure what is for sure the record.
As far as the pridictions they are my own, as a fan of MMA.
quote me after tommorrow and I’m sure I will at least 10 right.
by TKO on Apr 1, 2008 3:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
These UFC records are different from site to site, I’m not sure what is for sure the record.
As far as the pridictions they are my own, as a fan of MMA.
quote me after tommorrow and I’m sure I will at least 10 right.
Sorry dude, no way in hell you get 10 right. I think you’re gonna be in the 5-8 range
by UFCmn89 on Apr 1, 2008 4:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
VM: I bet 2 parlays:
Lauzon/Unders
Houston/unders
and it accepted both of them. Call the betUS #, they will put you on hold for like an hour but then you wlil get a hold of someone that can help you. That site blocks me from doing things all the time and then I call customer service and they straighten it out, but its a Hassel…but you got to call them!
As long as I get paid when Lauzon finshes the finisher, I’ll be happy!
SO for the Alexander fight, I just got money on the under. I wanted the parlay of Houston plus the under. What is it paying out John? About even money on the parlay?
by ViolentMike on Apr 1, 2008 4:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sorry dude, no way in hell you get 10 right. I think you’re gonna be in the 5-8 range
Ok fair enough, I feel confident in my predictions. Just out of curiousity which picks you don’t like?
by TKO on Apr 1, 2008 6:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
alright… took Lauzon, Alves, Edgar… 1 safe bet,2 underdogs… if there is such thing as a safe bet in mma.
by RAWbert on Apr 1, 2008 6:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
As long as I get paid when Lauzon finshes the finisher, I’ll be happy!
SO for the Alexander fight, I just got money on the under. I wanted the parlay of Houston plus the under. What is it paying out John? About even money on the parlay?
Just about!
by john on Apr 1, 2008 6:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hey all, I just got back from the weigh-ins, and sushi, and the hot tub, lol.
Couple of quick notes: I noticed in a few interviews Karo’s attitude has seemed a little less confident. In person, he really seemed unerved. I’m not saying he’s scared or something he just doesn’t seem focused at all.
Irvin did look scared, but who the hell wouldn’t looking at Houston Alexander.
Joe Lauzon’s parents are really nice.
Dana was fully focused…on Edith’s boobs. I have sweet photo of him leering during one of the weigh-ins.
by Desert Dog on Apr 2, 2008 12:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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