WEC 33 predictions and preview for Marshall vs. Stann

by Steve Roe on Mar 25, 2008 12:48 PM EDT

wec 33
Ringside hosts, Todd Harris and Frank Mir, are back at The Joint at the Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada, for WEC Live this Wednesday night. The card is highlighted by a light-heavyweight title fight between Doug Marshall and Brian Stann and includes several other compelling match-ups.

Coverage begins at 9 p.m. ET on Versus. We've still got to wait more than 24 hours until the action begins; therefore, let's go through the complete card and provide some predictions of the winners.

Here we go:

"All-American" Brian Stann vs. Doug "Rhino" Marshall

The challenger for the WEC light heavyweight title, Brian Stann, comes into the fight with a perfect record (5-0) with five first-round knockouts. Marshall has seven career wins, all of which also came in the first round. Smart money says this one ends early. Marshall's recent opponents (a 37-year-old steroid-using Cuban guy and a 6'6" beanpole who is unfamiliar with the concept of "reach advantage") have not exactly been top shelf competition. Stann has been known to take a few solid shots before finishing his opponents, and that may be a tactic to avoid with the powerful Marshall. I have to go with the Marine to win with a barrage of punches about four minutes in.

Prediction: Stann by TKO, round 1.

Chael Sonnen vs. Bryan Baker

Sonnen was set for a much-deserved middleweight title fight rematch with Paulo Filho before the Brazilian's personal issues forced him to withdraw. Sonnen will get a match, but it's a non-title fight against the undefeated Bryan Baker. A loss could potentially ruin Sonnen's shot at Filho down the road, but I think he wins the fight. Six of Sonnen's nine losses have been submissions to fighters like Jeremy Horn, Babalu Sobral and Forrest Griffin. Baker is not skilled enough on the ground to take this one.

Prediction: Sonnen by TKO, round 2.

Ed "9mm" Ratcliff vs. Marcus "Wrecking Ball" Hicks

Both fighters come into this fight with perfect records, 6-0 for Ratcliff and 7-0 for Hicks. Ratcliff won his first fight via submission, but since then he's racked up five consecutive knockout wins. Hicks, on the other hand, has five submission wins and two technical knockouts. Look for Hicks to use his strength advantage to bring Ratcliff to the mat and either lock up an arm or sink in a choke.

Prediction: Hicks by rear naked choke, round 2.

Steve Cantwell vs. Tim "Wrecking Machine" McKenzie

With a solid 11-4 record, including a knockout victory over current light-heavyweight champion Doug Marshall last March, McKenzie would probably be looking at a title shot with a win over Cantwell. Cantwell will try to improve on his 4-1 record, but McKenzie's experience should be enough to help him get a convincing win.

Prediction: McKenzie by TKO, round 1.

Hiromitsu Miura vs. Blas Avena

Hiromitsu Miura looks for his fourth win in his last five fights. With four technical knockout wins and a tapout win because of strikes to his credit, Miura will look to bang with Avena. Avena has two submission wins by choke in his last two fights. Look for Miura, who has faced significantly harder competition in several organizations, including K-1 and Pancrase to prevail.

Prediction: Miura by TKO, round 2.

John "The Natural" Alessio vs. Brock Larson

Alessio fought five times in 2007 with his only loss coming to WEC Welterweight Champion Carlos Condit. Larson also has just one loss in the last two years, also to Condit. The winner should get the first chance to avenge his loss. Larson is a powerful wrestler with an excellent submission game. I like him to beat up Alessio on the ground before winning with a choke.

Prediction: Larson by rear naked choke, round 2.
Sergio Gomez vs. Rich "Cleat" Crunkilton

Gomez has a solid 7-1 record, but the only time he stepped up in competition he got choked out. Crunkilton has 14 wins against just two losses, both of which came against world-class fighters. Look for him to get back to his winning ways with a TKO of Gomez.

Prediction: Crunkilton by TKO, round 1.

Ryan Stonitsch vs. Alex "The Russian Crusher" Serdyukov

Ryan Stonitsch takes a perfect 8-0 record with six stoppage wins into his WEC debut. Serdyukov is 8-4 overall and 3-2 in the WEC octagon with both losses at the hands of John Alessio. It might be a bit of an upset, but I think Stonitsch gets a ground and pound win here.

Prediction: Stonitsch by TKO, round 2.

Chris Manuel vs. Kenji Osawa

Chris Manuel is a product of American Top Team making his WEC debut. He won his last two fights by TKO, but his previous four wins were by various submissions. There is nothing particularly impressive about Osawa. He has 13 wins, seven by decision. Manuel takes this fight any way he wants.

Prediction: Manuel by TKO, round 1.

Logan "The Pink Pounder" Clark vs. Scott Haper

Clark, who has the most unfortunate nickname I've ever seen, is 1-1 in WEC and 7-1 overall, including a UFC win. Harper is 8-3 overall and making a step up in competition in WEC debut. Harper won his first two fights by knock-out, but five of his six wins since then have been submissions. All of Pink Pounder's wins are via KO or decision. Look for Clark to try to work some ground and pound while Harper goes for submissions.

Prediction: Clark via unanimous decision

That's a wrap. It's going to be great show tomorrow night -- don't miss it. In the meantime share your thoughts and predictions in the comments sections below.

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Comments

I’m going with Marshall on this one. I don’t think it’s going to be as close as people think. I think Stann aggressiveness is going to get him knocked out.

Alessio over Larson. This will probably be the best fight of the night.

by Getrawbc on Mar 25, 2008 12:56 PM EDT reply actions

THIS IS GOING TO BE A GOOD CARD TOO BAD THE CRY BABY PAULO ISNT FIGHTING. I GUESS HE DIDNT GET THE RIGHT AMOUNT OF STEROIDS IN HIS SYSTEM BEFORE THE FIGHT.

by Bill on Mar 25, 2008 1:13 PM EDT reply actions

anyone know why bodog doesnt have these fights up yet or if they are going to?

by keystone on Mar 25, 2008 1:34 PM EDT reply actions

Mike Swick should get sent back to the WEC. No point in having 3 AKA welterweights all in the UFC that refuse to fight each other. After Marcus Davis Knocks Swick’s head off at UFC 85, Swick should get sent down to the WEC to fight Carlos Condit.

by john on Mar 25, 2008 1:49 PM EDT reply actions

Is Todd Harris the dude that normally calls it with Mir? If he is, that guy sucks. They should try to get Mauro Renallo. He doesnt provide entertaining commentary like Rogan or Bas, but the dude knows his shit.

by The_Mexicutioner on Mar 25, 2008 1:59 PM EDT reply actions

WTF is with Logan Clark’s nickname?

by Mike C. on Mar 25, 2008 2:03 PM EDT reply actions

Who seriously owns a nickname like the “Pink Pounder”?

by JB on Mar 25, 2008 2:18 PM EDT reply actions

I still like Pink Pounder better than J-Lau

by Getrawbc on Mar 25, 2008 2:36 PM EDT reply actions

Logan Clark’s nickname is funny. Im sure “the tristate killing spree murderer” was number two on his list.

by Chris Browning on Mar 25, 2008 2:38 PM EDT reply actions

The loss of Filho and the MW title fight hurts the overall quality of the card, but it should still provide to be a night of entertaining fights – just like every other WEC event I’ve seen. Although, this one does have a lower amount of “known fighters” on the card compared to cards as of late.

I think that Doug Marshall will turn some heads with an impressive win over this joke of an MMA fighter Brain Stann. You want to talk about one dimensional. And hearing this guy talk about the Marines is just as damn annoying as hearing Marshall talk about getting the KD – Knocked Dead.

John Alessio vs Brock Larson, like Getrawbc said, could provide to be the best fight. Will The Natural’s craftiness get him the win, or will Brock Larson be able to muscle his way to victory. I would say that Brock Larson’s style is most similar to Diego Sanchez when compared to Alessio’s opponents and Diego overwhelmed him. I think that Alessio will choke in this fight and lose via GnP or Guillatine.

Mike Swick should get sent back to the WEC. No point in having 3 AKA welterweights all in the UFC that refuse to fight each other. After Marcus Davis Knocks Swick’s head off at UFC 85, Swick should get sent down to the WEC to fight Carlos Condit.

Swick vs Burkman should have been a fight to see who stays in the UFC and the loser goes to the WEC. Seeing that their fight sucked so badly and put half the crowd to sleep, one could make an arguement to send them both down to the WEC. Once there, they would proceed to get their asses handed to them by The Natural Born Killer.

by ViolentMike on Mar 25, 2008 2:52 PM EDT reply actions

Why did they not include Cung Le and Frank Shamrock in the predictions…after all that is the main event..right?

by Bahiano on Mar 25, 2008 2:54 PM EDT reply actions

Never mind….I forgot this is WEC and the Cung Le fight is on Elite XC showtime…my bad!

by Bahiano on Mar 25, 2008 2:55 PM EDT reply actions

Hey JB

Im not sure if you check older posts but Sean McManus got back to us on the interview with Jason Day. Here is his post:

Hey Steven, I did make a mistake – my journalism is a bit rough around the edges. He works and resides in Lethbridge, but he does travel to Calgary to train on some weekends. I’ll find out where in Calgary and post it up on here. Sorry for the mix up guys.

And btw I have heard of Canuckles and I have been debating if it would be better to go there or Fighters Nation (in North Gate Golds) as I already have a Gold’s Gym membership and its not much more to switch over to their MMA program and it seems they have some good coaches going.

by Steven on Mar 25, 2008 3:06 PM EDT reply actions

John Alessio vs Brock Larson, like Getrawbc said, could provide to be the best fight. Will The Natural’s craftiness get him the win, or will Brock Larson be able to muscle his way to victory. I would say that Brock Larson’s style is most similar to Diego Sanchez when compared to Alessio’s opponents and Diego overwhelmed him. I think that Alessio will choke in this fight and lose via GnP or Guillatine.

Unfortunately, when Filho withdrew, Sonnen was taken off the card, then reinserted after the card was filled against a guy from the undercard. By putting Sonnen back on the main card, the Alessio-Larson fight, which I think will be one of the best, got moved to ‘may not be broadcast’ status.

by PW on Mar 25, 2008 3:21 PM EDT reply actions

MMA Mania – Carlos Condit fights at welterweight, not middleweight.

by MMACrossfire on Mar 25, 2008 3:59 PM EDT reply actions

MMA Mania – Carlos Condit fights at welterweight, not middleweight.

Thanks, I missed the typo during a quick edit job. I didn’t write this btw.

by MMAmania on Mar 25, 2008 4:04 PM EDT reply actions

MMA Mania – With number of articles on the site, I’m surprise there aren’t more typos. That’s a lotta stuff to review and edit.

by MMACrossfire on Mar 25, 2008 4:09 PM EDT reply actions

MMA Mania – Carlos Condit fights at welterweight, not middleweight.

My fault. I typed it by mistake when I wrote it and missed it when I reread it.

by PW on Mar 25, 2008 4:26 PM EDT reply actions

“Look for Miura, who has faced significantly harder competition… to prevail”

0-1
0-3
7-9
0-1
5-4-2
1-3
7-7-3

Those are the records of the opponents Miura is credited with beating on Sherdog, leading up to his latest victory over Fernando Gonzalez, who has by far the best record of anyone Miura has beaten, at 12-5 (12-3 before fighting Miura).

Avena, however, has beaten two guys with records of 6-1 (5-0 before) and 9-7 (9-6 before), and lost to Logan Clark (7-1)

I agree that Miura has faced tougher competition, but what does that mean, if he loses to all the good fighters he fights, and beats all the mediocre ones? I think people are underestimating Blas here, but I know Miura’s good. Also, if you watch the Miller-Miura fight again, you’ll notice that although Miura did quite well in the fight overall, he made a lot of mistakes, gave up his back fairly readily and was unable to beat Jason Miller when Miller seemed to be taking the fight very lightly. I like Miura, I just don’t like the assumption that he is going to win, based off his good performance in his losses. Miura hasn’t beaten anyone as good as Blas yet.

by skatanicus on Mar 25, 2008 5:43 PM EDT reply actions

I’m betting money on Marcus Hicks. Ed Ratcliff is pretty sick, but Hicks seems to have a huge advantage in grappling. Hicks is also pretty good standing up, so I’d like to see a little banging (it won’t look like a little) and then see this go to the ground where Hicks can more easily finish the fight. I saw MMAweekly has Ed Ratcliff up as their pick, and they also picked John Alessio. I’m picking Hicks and Larson to win their fights, but I’m very much looking forward to both being exciting matches. The whole card looks pretty damn good to me, save maybe the Crunkilton fight. The WEC matchmaker (Scott Adams) is better at his job than UFC matchmaker Joe Silva.

by skatanicus on Mar 25, 2008 5:53 PM EDT reply actions

I see Stann as the favorite, but not much of one because I really don’t see him fighting a smart fight. I thought it was crazy when I read on some site the opinion that Marshall has more power than Stann; Stann HAS to have the edge when this thing is standing, and not in the clinch. Marshall could obviously catch him with something even out of the clinch, but Stann is more likely to do so, and that’s pretty much the best position Stann will find himself in during the fight. All of Stann’s fights have ended early, and he’s going to try to do the same in this fight. The fact that Stann is arrogant, his friends are all probably half way up his butt, AND he’s the favorite going into a championship bout, must have Stann’s head ready to explode. I’m not putting any money on Stann because I think he’s one mistake away from looking like a total fool and there’s little chance of him fighting an intelligent fight.

by skatanicus on Mar 25, 2008 6:13 PM EDT reply actions

THIS IS GOING TO BE A GOOD CARD TOO BAD THE CRY BABY PAULO ISNT FIGHTING. I GUESS HE DIDNT GET THE RIGHT AMOUNT OF STEROIDS IN HIS SYSTEM BEFORE THE FIGHT.

The guy admits to having a substance abuse problem and wants to do something about it and you berate him for it? Karma is a bitch.

by 5 Finger Death Punch on Mar 25, 2008 9:25 PM EDT reply actions

Is Todd Harris the dude that normally calls it with Mir? If he is, that guy sucks. They should try to get Mauro Renallo. He doesnt provide entertaining commentary like Rogan or Bas, but the dude knows his shit.

Umm, they both suck, period.

They should get a real commentator, like Gus Johnson! Ever heard that guy call a boxing match? In fact, I’d listen to that guy call a knit-off!

But yes, Todd Harris sucks, but Renallo sucks as well.

Anyway, I’m here in Vegas, and I think these predictions are pretty on target, although I’m very torn over Marshall and Stann. I’ve been watching both of them train the last two days, and it’s really tough to say.

I am impressed with Marshall’s JJ; he’s a lot more fluid than I thought he’d be. Both fighters have bad head movement, and as the fight wears on I think it’ll get worse, but at the beginning of a fight Stann’s is worse. Stann has been training with Sokudjou and Lindland, which won’t hurt.

I have to figure Stann wins because he’s bigger, stronger, and a better athlete. I think he takes life more seriously, and I do believe that matters.

Hicks and Ratcliff could go either way, but Hicks just looks pissed off, ALWAYS. His head his HUGE for his body. Guys with big heads are hard to hurt, i.e, Rampage and Anderson.

Miura over Blas. Not sure where Blas is beating this guy, unless he just flat out knocks him out.

Cantwell is weird.

Crunkilton wins.

Alessio always manages to win, but this time I think he manages to lose.

The rest I cannot comment on.

Wait, I can: Sonnen should win, but Baker DEFINITELY has a puncher’s chance.

by MF Doomer on Mar 25, 2008 9:59 PM EDT reply actions

I see Stann as the favorite, but not much of one because I really don’t see him fighting a smart fight. I thought it was crazy when I read on some site the opinion that Marshall has more power than Stann; Stann HAS to have the edge when this thing is standing, and not in the clinch. Marshall could obviously catch him with something even out of the clinch, but Stann is more likely to do so, and that’s pretty much the best position Stann will find himself in during the fight. All of Stann’s fights have ended early, and he’s going to try to do the same in this fight. The fact that Stann is arrogant, his friends are all probably half way up his butt, AND he’s the favorite going into a championship bout, must have Stann’s head ready to explode. I’m not putting any money on Stann because I think he’s one mistake away from looking like a total fool and there’s little chance of him fighting an intelligent fight.

Some of the worst commentary I’ve read to date.

Brian Stann is the FURTHEST thing from arrogant. In fact, that comment is about as accurate as claiming Doug Marshall would make a good model for Aim Toothpaste.

I don’t really care who wins, either way. Marshall throws looping punches that have a lot of speed. They are surprisingly strong. He generates momentum. Stann throws textbook straight. Marshall’s punches are similar to Chuck’s. With that said, either guy can knock out the other guy.

Regardless, your commentary sucks.

I have the WEC odds in my hands

Marshall -150
Stann 120

Sonnen -110
Baker -120

Ratcliff -115
Hicks -115

Cantwell -300
McKenzie 220

Miura 140
Avena -170 (locals must be betting)

Alessio 220
Larson -300

Gomez 115
Crunk -145

Stonit…-130
Serd… EV

Manuel EV
Osawa -130

Clark -400
Harper 300