UFC 77 quick preview, analysis and predictions

by MMAmania.com on Oct 19, 2007 10:39 AM EDT Comment 68 comments

UFC 77: "Hostile Territory" is set for tomorrow (Saturday) night on October 20 from the U.S. Bank Arena in Cincinnati, Ohio. The pay-per-view (PPV) event airs at 10 p.m. ET.

Remember: UFCmania.com will provide LIVE updates and blow-by-blow, round-by-round commentary of the main card action throughout the telecast. It promises to be a great discussion as usual for an amazing line up of fights.

To get us pumped for the festivities UFCmania.com contributor Jesse Holland and the new top poster for the site, "ViolentMike," went toe-to-toe below to try and predict the fighters who will leave the Octagon with their hands raised tomorrow evening.

It's important to note for the predicitions that while someone may be lauding a certain fighter, he isn't necessarily the guy who he thinks is going to win. Basically, we never want this to come out sounding repetitive. At the end of each analysis, therefore, you will see the individual picks.

Let's get to it:

UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva (19-4) vs. Rich Franklin (22-2)

Jesse Holland: Rich Franklin is once again the underdog come Saturday night, but that doesn't necessarily mean that history is guaranteed to repeat itself. Franklin above all else is an intelligent fighter and will surely come in with an improved strategy. I can't give him a free pass in the last fight because he was the champ, but in fairness Silva was a bit of an enigma to fans and fighters alike. Now that we've seen more of the Brazilian we can expect a much different, albeit cautious approach from Franklin. I won't condemn this fight to a five round dance ala Sylvia/Arlovski, but Franklin will certainly look to strike from the outside in order to avoid the clinch. Unfortunately that could translate to a slow first and second round. Franklin may have his best chance of taking the win if he can get Silva down and unload some ground and pound. Rich is difficult to submit and has the tools to hurt Silva but I don't see him taking the ground approach because striking is Franklin's bread and butter. Being in his hometown will help rather than hurt, but only time will tell if it's going to be enough.

UFCmania reader "ViolentMike:" Anderson Silva: I can't think of two scarier words for any middleweight. Right now, he is widely considered as the best striker in all of MMA. Since his standup is as good as it gets, common sense would tell his opponent would take him to the ground. Perhaps the best Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter in the division, Travis Lutter, did just that. And what happened? He got triangle choked for his efforts. The fact of the matter is this – no one right now is even close to his skill level at 185 pounds (assuming that Dan Henderson doesn't reluctantly drop down from 205), except for Rich Franklin. However, I remember Joe Rogan saying at an event about five months after their first fight that Franklin still hasn't watched the footage from their first fight. That brings only one word to my mind – fear. Even if Anderson is not able to Muay Thai clinch with Franklin, I see him being able to finish this fight from the outside with his striking. Frankly, I just don't think Franklin has what it takes to beat Silva at this point in both of their careers. However, I do see him making it out of the first round in this fight, but barely. Look for Anderson to really turn it on and push the pace in the final 30 seconds of the first round and really rock Franklin. Two or three years ago I'd go with Franklin, but this is 2007 and time for "The Spider" to reign supreme.

Final Predictions:

Holland: Silva via unanimous decision
ViolentMike: Silva via technical knockout

Tim Sylvia (23-3) vs. Brandon Vera (8-0)

Jesse Holland: Brandon Vera fans take note - he said it best himself: "Don't believe the hype, just believe what you see." While talented, Vera in my eyes is more hype than hope in the heavyweight division. Tim Sylvia is coming off surgery and claims to feel healthier and stronger than he has in a long time. That's bad news for "The Truth". Sylvia is more experienced, has a better reach and is nearly impossible to finish. His biggest concern for Saturday's fight is defending the leg kick. It's not something we see often in the heavyweight division but I believe the size difference will make it Vera's first plan of attack. Tim has to be more aggressive than in recent fights and let those hands go. Vera has fought well since his debut but the layoff and lack of A-level competition is going to cost him this fight. He's never had to weather any kind of storm so we don't know how he'll respond and with Tim's right hand there is very little margin for error. This one could end at any time.

UFCmania reader "ViolentMike:" Brandon Vera is the smallest heavyweight in the division. He's only one toilet-clogging dump away from making light heavyweight. But he chooses not do so because he wants to be the first ever simultaneous heavyweight and light heavyweight champions. On the other side of the Octagon is Tim Sylvia -- the biggest fighter in the weightclass. For Vera, two main factors come into this fight: Size and ring-rust. How can Vera negate this huge size and reach advantage? I see two ways. The first, and more obvious, would be to take Timmy down to the ground. From here, he can work his well-versed submission game, or look for the ground and pound. The second is to chop the giant down, by using his excellent leg kicks that he possesses thanks to his main trainers, Lloyd Irvin and especially the great kickboxer, Rob Kaman. Speaking of leg kicks, Brandon should really look to exploit the whole in Timmy's game that Randy made so apparent to everyone in the division - left leg kick, over hand right. For the ring-rust, it's not like Brandon has been taking time off from training. He traveled the world looking for the best opportunities to train to become a better fighter, including Thailand and the Philippines. The big question about Vera is how will this time off affect him, especially his chin. He hasn't been hit in the face "for real" in more than a year. One big right hand by Timmy can put anyone to sleep. To me, this is the hardest fight on the card to pick a winner. Timmy has never been KO'd and has fought the many of the largest and most talented heavyweight's the UFC has had to offer. So Timmy has been hit harder before, but Vera has the capability of throwing something at Timmy that he's never seen before and taking him by surprise. Plus a perfectly placed strike can knockout anyone (except for Dan Henderson!). If the fight goes to a decision, I can't see Timmy winning it.

Final Predictions:

Holland: Sylvia via knockout
ViolentMike: Vera via unanimous decision

Stephan Bonnar (10-4) vs. Eric Schafer (7-2-2)

Jesse Holland: Eric Schafer has his work cut out for him but if he's studied any of Bonnar's previous fights he understands that he can let Bonnar do most of the work for him. As we've seen against Rashad Evans, Bonnar gets frustrated if he can't control the pace and take the fight right to his opponent. On their feet "Red" doesn't stand much of a chance, but on the ground he is more than capable of pulling out the submission. The key to victory will be a submission that Bonnar cannot anticipate because his sub defense is above average. Now how to get Bonnar down is another story as "Red" isn't exactly known for his takedowns. Again, let Bonnar do the work here. While not exactly noble, it wouldn't be such a bad idea if Schafer jumped into guard and went for broke.

UFCmania reader "ViolentMike:" Stephan Bonnar is a game fighter – ready to go at all times. He is coming off of a first round win over Mike Nichols after serving a suspension for steroids. Being out of the Octagon didn't look to effect Stephan at all. In fact, he found himself right at home upon his return. Stephan is really well rounded and is going up against a one dimensional ground fighter in "Ravishing Red." Red's problem is that he often has a difficult time getting his opponent to the ground to utilize his jiu-jitsu skills. The experience factor and quality of opponents favors Bonnar. I see this playing a roll in their fight. Plus, Red is hardly an intimidating nickname - I'd be more scared to fight Red Foreman from the 70's show than Ravishing Red! I see Stephan picking him apart on their feet.

Final Predictions:

Holland: Bonnar via technical knockout
ViolentMike: Bonnar via knockout

Kalib Starnes (8-1-1) vs. Alan Belcher (10-3)

Jesse Holland: Alan Belcher is coming off a quick submission win over Sean Salmon at UFC 71 which I think helped erase the beating he took at the hands of Kendall Grove last April. Belcher is as every bit as talented as his nickname suggests and I fully expect him to walk through Kalib Starnes. Belcher has a solid striking background winning 60 percent of his fights by technical knockout. Starnes is good on the ground but does not perform well under heavy fire as we saw on The Ultimate Fighter 3 and against Yushin Okami. Belcher needs to keep it standing and not be lured into an exchange on the ground. I would not be surprised to see this one go the distance but I definitely have Belcher winning all three rounds.

UFCmania reader "ViolentMike:" Kalib Starnes last defeated Chris Leben in the fight of the night at UFC 71. Prior to that, he was over powered and defeated by Yushin Okami. His first official UFC fight was against Danny Abbadi, so I don't really count that as a win, unless he somehow managed to get Danny to make him a sandwich after the fight. Kalib is pretty well rounded, finding himself comfortable and able to win the fight from almost any position. Although he has a record of 8-1-1 (2-1 in the UFC), I don't think that Kalib has fought to his full potential. It even looks like he doesn't always give it 100 percent and he seems to quit on himself when he falls behind. I think that Kalib has this inner beast inside of him that he is just dying to come out and show that killer instinct needed to demolish the opposition. Will Saturday be the day?

Final Predictions:

Holland: Belcher via unanimous decision
ViolentMike: Starnes via submission

Jason MacDonald (19-8) vs. Yushin Okami (20-4)

Jesse Holland: Jason MacDonald has his second biggest test to date (the first being Franklin) and how he responds to this challenge will say a lot about his place in the 185-pound division. Okami is a huge middleweight who is strong enough to tool anybody in the clinch yet versatile enough to pull off a submission if the opportunity presents itself. MacDonald must look to end this one early. As we've seen in his fights against Franklin and Swick, Okami is a slow starter and actually gets better in the later rounds. Conversely, MacDonald starts to gas as time goes on so it's do or die in the first seven and a half minutes. "The Athlete" finishes nearly 85 percent of his fights by submission, and should not waste time trying to dance around the outside. If MacDonald can find a way to pull guard or even better get a dominant position, he'll have to outmaneuver-not outmuscle Okami. It's going to be a pretty tall order against a guy who only has one submission loss (strikes) in 24 fights.

UFCmania reader "ViolentMike:" Jason MacDonald will be fighting Yushin Okami in the swing bout. Why this bout isn't on the main card has me flabbergasted, but that's besides the point. I'm supposed to call the fight as I see it happening, and predict a winner! J-Mac and Okami share three common opponents, Rory Singer, Rich Franklin and Kalib Starnes.

Rory Singer - No Edge: They both finished Singer via TKO.
Rich Franklin – Edge Okami: MacDonald lost via technical knockout to Franklin at end of Round two. Okami lasted the entire three rounds with Franklin and lost a decision.
Kalib Starnes – Edge Okami: Kalib TKO'd "The Athlete" in the first round. Okami TKO'd Kalib in the third round.

So, using the fighters past history of common opponents, all signs point toward Okami. I see the main question to this fight being this - Once this fight hits the ground, which it will, will MacDonald be able to use his length and jiu-jitsu to submit the crafty Okami? Unfortunately for J-Mac, Okami will have the strength advantage to simply power himself out of the majority of submissions that will be thrown at him. So Jason will most likely going to have to look for the chokes if he wants to submit him. Yushin has 24 pro MMA fights, and has only lost once by submission, which was due to strikes back in his seventh fight. On the other hand, MacDonald has 19 pro wins, with an astonishing 16 coming by way of submission.

Final Predictions:

Holland: Okami via technical knockout
ViolentMike: Okami via submission (strikes)

What do you think? Now it's your turn ... let us have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for UFC 77.

For the complete UFC 77: "Hostile Territory" fight card click here.

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Comments

Silva: T/KO
Sylvia: T/KO
Bonnar: T/KO
Starnes: SUB
Okami: T/KO

by The Legend on Oct 19, 2007 10:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Kickin da door wavin da .44
all you heard was Anderson
don’t hit me no more.

by PhilQNY on Oct 19, 2007 10:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I am depressed they don’t have the Okami/MacDonald on the fight card. I’d rather see that fight then the Bonnar or the Belcher fight

by DPB on Oct 19, 2007 10:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Since the Round that the fight would end in isn’t displayed, I just wanted to mention that in the Anderson Silva/Rich Franklin fight, I have Anderson winning in the 2nd round. My write up makes it sound like it will end at the end of the first. But I expect Rich to make it out of the first round, but just barely!

by ViolentMike on Oct 19, 2007 10:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Franklin: t/ko
Sylvia:dec.
Bonnar: t/ko
Starnes: sub.
Mcdonald: sub.
out on a limb…. even put some $ on 1 of these dogs.

by RAWbert on Oct 19, 2007 10:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

" toilet clogging dump" great use of description Mike.

by James S on Oct 19, 2007 10:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

franklin – tko(ground&pound)
vera – tko
bonnar – dec
starnes – sub
okami – tko

by mad drummer on Oct 19, 2007 11:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

silva
im rooting for vera but my money is on sylvia
could care less about starns and beltcher
Okami
bonnar

by texas pretty boy on Oct 19, 2007 11:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

it’s gonna b like an electric shock..Franklin gets the win.

by Anonymousf*ck on Oct 19, 2007 11:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Franklin- dec.
Silvia- tko
Bonnar- dec
Okami- tko

by Greg on Oct 19, 2007 11:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Silva by KO
Okami by GnP
Bonnar by TKO ( hopefully not a decision )
Vera by decision or submission

The rest..I personally it doesn’t intrest me.

by PhilQNY on Oct 19, 2007 11:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow, a lot of you are picking Franklin to win. This is very different than what was said for the overwhelming majority on here over the last year or so, even up until yesterday…

Of course some people were picking Rich to win, but no were near half the people. Right now more than half have Rich winning.

by ViolentMike on Oct 19, 2007 11:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I hope that this trend continues, in Vegas, because if it does and the odds keep moving towards Franklin, I will definitly put money on Anderson to win.

by ViolentMike on Oct 19, 2007 11:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i have rich beating silva via stoppage due to strikes,
sylvia via tko
bonnar via dec
macdonald via dec

just my predictions
franklin has alot to lose if he doesnt win, he will be prepared, probably a boring fight in the 1st and most of the 2nd rds. but he will win

by ufc69inTX on Oct 19, 2007 11:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I hope rich wins, I’ll be surprised if he does but it would make my night.

by nathan on Oct 19, 2007 11:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I know I said I wasn’t going to post anymore but Thank you VM for your words on the coutour post.
maybe i just wont read all the comments.
My predictions/picks
SILVA 1st rd over franklin same result as first fight
although what vm had said about franklin jus making it out of the first rd and falling in the second I could see as well
either way silva ko’s franklin.
-VERA over sylvia it may just look like silva and franklins first fight nose an inch to the left-1st rd-fastest fight of the night.
-BONNAR no contest-bonnar looked physically better than ever in his last fight. gnp until bonnar submits him after getting tired from hitting him.
-STARNES over belcher. starnes stood with leben and won if all belcher has is his hands starnes will be fine.
-MACDONALD, I like him, he’s got ground game/experiance and I think he can take a punch/doesn’t seem to defend them to well but can eat him.
-BURKMAN
-GURGEL
-MAIA
-BLACK

by jesse canadian mma on Oct 19, 2007 11:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Great job ViolentMike!! I like the toilet/Vera quip too – that was a nice touch. :)

by EdenMachine on Oct 19, 2007 11:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Anderson Silva will go down in MMA history as one of the greatest fighters of all time. He is a Champion of Champions..the way he is as a person and the way he fights as fighter..I see Rich adding another clip to Silva’s highlight reel..I hope square up and bang..and leave everything they have in the cage..but Silva in my opinion today is the best Pound per Pound fighter in the world.

funny note..at the press conference Rich has a two and a half week old beard..someone please pass him a Mach 3 fusion.

by PhilQNY on Oct 19, 2007 11:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Vera by triangle choke in the second round and Franklin by TKO in the third (via GnP). Bonnar by decision.

by Muscle Dolphin on Oct 19, 2007 11:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Also, MacDonald via armbar (3rd round) and Starnes in a close decision.

by Muscle Dolphin on Oct 19, 2007 12:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Silva
Sylvia
Okami
Starnes
Bonnar

by Nos on Oct 19, 2007 12:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

silva: TKO 2nd round
The truth will be told Vera TKo 2nd
Okami TKO 2nd
Starnes is a sissy im picking belcher in 2nd TKO
Boner in 1st TKO

by Ralphie on Oct 19, 2007 12:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I still don’t know why Vera doesn’t drop to 205. I realize he has a speed advantage at heavyweight, but I think even Forrest is bigger than him and he fights at LHW. That being said, I want him to win, but I think Sylvia is going to drag out decision against him.

by Noel on Oct 19, 2007 12:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If Brandon loses he wont blame it on his size, he’ll admit Tim was the better fighter. Look how much bigger Tim was then Randy, Randy won tho becasue he had a better game plan. If Brandon can be quick and push the pace with him, he’ll take this fight easily.

It would be awesome if Vera went down to 205, the divisions already stacked, adding the truth to it would only add to the jam packed lhw!!!!

by ppwwpp on Oct 19, 2007 12:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Silva by Decison
Vera by Decision
Okami by TKO
Starnes by Submission
Boner by TKO

by Christian on Oct 19, 2007 12:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

dont be hating on the big man, his jaw is iron and he recovers so quickly eg. arlovski 1 and 2 and the first punch against randy.

i cant see vera knocking him out, but can see sylvia knocking him out or sylvia winning a decision.

i see

silva tko – look at their staredown at the prefight press conference silva looks angry and rich looks like he is trying not to cry.

stephan bonner tko – look at the pre fight press conference, bonnar is giving schafer the pimphand and schafer is like wtf, lol.

alan belcher unanimous decision – he just looks stronger and more explosive than kalib.

yushin okami unanimous decision – this is a terrible match up for jmac, im just giving him the benifit of the doubt that he will even make it to the third round.

i also see matt grice pulling off an upset and at 310 its irresistable for me to pass up.

by dsi_chameleon on Oct 19, 2007 12:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I pick:

Violent Mike to replace Joe Rogan
Vera by Knockout (cumulative leg kicks)
Silva by knockout (strikes)
Okami by knockout
Others – no opinion

by Sureal on Oct 19, 2007 1:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Anderson Silva: By KO/TKO. He’s in a league of his own.

Tim Sylvia: By KO. Though I personally root for Vera.

Stephan Bonnar: By TKO.

Alan Belcher: By Decision.

Yushin Okami: By Whatever.

by JonnyBoy on Oct 19, 2007 1:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Franklin GnP
Vera KO/TKO
Bonnar Quick KO
Belcher UD
Okami by boredom

by PW on Oct 19, 2007 1:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Silva TKO in 3rd round…Franklin gona be hesitant for first 2rounds
Vera Unanimous Decision
Bonner KO
Starns Unanimous Decision
Okami ground n pound referee stoppageee

by XXXFactor on Oct 19, 2007 1:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

very nice job violent mike, i agree 100 percent on everything you said about starnes, you were right on the money there, i also liked your explanation on the okami/mcdonald fight and think okami will win that fight…you got me second guessing myself on sylvia and vera, i got sylvia winning by unanimous decision on mmaplayground, but i’m starting to think you’re right about vera being able to outwork him on the score cards if it goes to the judges but who knows with that fight, its gonna be fun to watch…anyway good job bro, you do a good job providing info daily with your posts and you’re a hell of a lot better than the last guy i was sitting behind on that top poster board, so congrats on that too, keep up the good work…

by tha spida on Oct 19, 2007 1:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

my picks:

anderson silva vs. rich franklin: silva 3rd rd. (T)KO (KO of the night)
tim sylvia vs. brandon vera: sylvia unanimous decision
yushin okami vs. jason mcdonald: yushin okami split decision (fight of the night)
steffan bonnar vs. eric schaffer: bonnar 2nd rd. (T)KO
kalib starnes vs. alan belcher: starnes unanimous decision
jason black vs. matt grice: black 2nd rd. rear naked choke (sub of the night)
jorge gurgel vs. alvin robinson: robinson unanimous decision
josh burkman vs. forrest petz: burkman 2nd rd. (T)KO
demian maia vs. ryan jenson: jenson 1st rd. (T)KO

by tha spida on Oct 19, 2007 1:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

very nice job violent mike, i agree 100 percent on everything you said about starnes, you were right on the money there, i also liked your explanation on the okami/mcdonald fight and think okami will win that fight…you got me second guessing myself on sylvia and vera, i got sylvia winning by unanimous decision on mmaplayground, but i’m starting to think you’re right about vera being able to outwork him on the score cards if it goes to the judges but who knows with that fight, its gonna be fun to watch…anyway good job bro, you do a good job providing info daily with your posts and you’re a hell of a lot better than the last guy i was sitting behind on that top poster board, so congrats on that too, keep up the good work…

Thanks a lot Spida, I appreciate it, especially coming from the top poster! For Sylvia/Vera, if it does go to the score cards, I just can’t see Timmy getting his hand raised. If two strikers go to the score cards, I’ll usually predict the quicker of the two. I got more that I’d like to say, but I got a meeting in like 2 minutes. But I will be back.

by ViolentMike on Oct 19, 2007 2:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Silva 2nd tko
Vera 1st sub
Bonnar 1st tko
Belcher 3rd tko
Okami 2nd tko
Black 1st tko
Gurgel un dec
Jensen 1st tko
Burkman un dec

by Mattchupichu on Oct 19, 2007 2:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Kickin da door wavin da .44
all you heard was Anderson
don’t hit me no more.

LOL so true.

by jjdnb on Oct 19, 2007 2:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

great post ufcmania great post…
I used to be really stubborn when it came to picking winners.. I mean a couple months ago b4 the pride/ufc merger I was thinking man all these ufc guys suck and when pride gets here we will have real competition…Boy was I wrong…When Rampage destroyed chuck I was like see I told all of you pride is taking over…but when i saw CC and Shogun get owned by people I thought they’d destroy I was in shock…Now I rely on these post’s and I take an opened minded approach to predicting the outcome cuz after as many upsets there has been lately you never know damn it..

by Royer on Oct 19, 2007 2:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I can’t believe there not showing the Okami/Mcdonald fight. I think we will get the fight after the main event if theres time on the ppv.

I see Sylvia and Silva victorious in their bouts

by Stafo on Oct 19, 2007 3:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Silva: T/KO
Sylvia: T/KO
Bonnar: T/KO
Starnes: SUB
Okami: T/KO

Wow it’s Nostradamus everyone.

by Lycan on Oct 19, 2007 3:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My picks
Rich 1st round KO (not b/c of home court advatage but just because the element of surprise is on his side)
Vera 1st round KO (Sorry Timmy)
those are the only fights I would pick cuz i dont know to much about the other fighters…
I think that a good advantage that Rich has is the same advantage that silva had there first fight which is the element of surprise, I mean in their first fight he probably expected to knock this contender out but when silva started compromising the former champ w/ his explosiveness it through his dominant game plan out the window (he got caught and couldnt survive) Now this time around he knows what Silva is capable of and will surely come out much more alert. Also the only thing that Silva knows for sure is that Rich can kick ass but when they fought the first time he beat him like everyone else hes beat so his game plan will probably remain the same.. bottom line the best game plan for Rich would be to have many game plans for the many predicaments that he could be in throughout the fight..

I have seen impressive victories for both Vera and Sylvia but there is no doubt to me that Vera is the better fighter..but…then again I’ve seen alot of better fighers get KO’D this year so really theres not much more I want to say before seeing this fight.
But again as I stated in my previous post, It would not suprise me to be completely wrong

by Royer on Oct 19, 2007 3:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Jesse Holland did u just start watching this sport, or are you just a bad analist? Seriously, you guys need to fire that guy and hire me.

by EazyEismydad on Oct 19, 2007 4:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ViolentMike, congrats on making number 1 commentator. Great write up. I agree with a lot of what you say but hope to see the matches go differently. I’d like to see Franklin smack Anderson’s face in. Also, Okami doesn’t do anything for my and J-Mac is the man. Hopefully he’ll own Okami. A final note, Vera is getting KTFO! Way out of his league and weight class!

by GriffinFan05 on Oct 19, 2007 4:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

can somebody explain to me why jorge gurgel is even fighting in the ufc.. the kid is a no talent bum who happens to pal around with real fighters . he opens up his own gym and that alone is his only link to real mma.

by sharpteeth on Oct 19, 2007 5:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Franklin via TKO
Sylvia via TKO
Bonner via TKO
Belcher via TKO
Okami via TKO

It’s gonna be a TKO fest!

by c-war on Oct 19, 2007 5:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Silva by KO
Vera by Decision
Gurgel by Decision
Bonnar by TKO
Belcher by KO
Okami by TKO
Maia by Submission
Burkman by Decision
Black by TKO

Looking at Franklin’s training camp, I just dont see how he is going to be able to pull this one off. The rumors do not confirm that he has changed his gameplan, and Franklin will really need something special if he looks to score a win over the lethal strikes of Anderson Silva. Sylvia says he is back and more ready than ever, but he always says that and puts out a shit performance. Vera will be serious about making a statement to Dana White about that title shot and will give Sylvia the full arsenal. It will not be enough to take Sylvia out, but it will be enough to score a unanimous decision. Jorge Gurgel and Alvin Robinson will probably be the sleeper. Gurgel usually doesn’t finish his opponents and Robinson had a less than impressive debut against Kenny Florian. I dont see either fighter having a real advantage; Gurgel will most likely pull off another ignominious decision. Stephen Bonnar will be making his second post-roid fight against Eric Schafer. Im making this call based purely on training camps; Bonnar goes to Xtreme Couture, while Schafer has been paired with the likes of UFC dropout Sean Salmon. Rampage said it himself, you have to pony up and get the good training if you want to win. Couture will give Bonnar a gameplan and score the victory. Belcher vs. Starnes will show how serious one of these two fighters are about moving up in the ranks of MMA. I personally find Starnes style rather boring, and his slow methodical style is going to be brought against Belcher’s explosive strikes. I hope to see Belcher getting the late knockout against a worn out Starnes. Okami is going to dominate MacDonald; Okami is in a completely different class and needs to get his rematch with Anderson Silva. Damian Maia is a very quick and highly skilled submission artist going up against another submission fighter in Ryan Jensen. Most likely Maia will make an impressive submission victory in the first, given his caliber of submission skills. Burkman versus Petz will be a good war of attrition, but I think Burkman is stronger and will not allow Petz to implement his game. Burman will probably take the decision. Jason Black versus Matt Grice is the old youth vs. experience arguement. Black has not been the same since his arm injury to Shonie Carter, but his submission losses have also come to some highly touted submission artists. Grice does not really represent the same caliber of grappling skill (as seen against Terry Etim), so I will go with experience by TKO stoppage.

by StreitigKaiser on Oct 19, 2007 7:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

very nice job violent mike, i agree 100 percent on everything you said about starnes, you were right on the money there, i also liked your explanation on the okami/mcdonald fight and think okami will win that fight…you got me second guessing myself on sylvia and vera, i got sylvia winning by unanimous decision on mmaplayground, but i’m starting to think you’re right about vera being able to outwork him on the score cards if it goes to the judges but who knows with that fight, its gonna be fun to watch…anyway good job bro, you do a good job providing info daily with your posts and you’re a hell of a lot better than the last guy i was sitting behind on that top poster board, so congrats on that too, keep up the good work…

I agree. Violent Mike has made an excellent analysis of the match ups.

However, I’m favoring Sylvia because of his size, reach, experience, and Vera’s possible ring rust (plus, isn’t Tim in Randy’s camp for this match? – maybe that means a good game plan too) but I can see Vera really working the leg kicks and either winning on points or following one of those kicks with a great overhand right. This pick is a tough one.

If Vegas odds are in favor of Vera, I’d bet on Sylvia and vice versa – just for the chance of a nice pay off.

Silva – TKO
Sylvia – TKO

by Rob on Oct 19, 2007 7:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think everyone in here had some very good points, kudos to everyone. However I think most are underestimating J. MacDonald. He is an extremely talented fighter and I don’t think Okami will be able to impose his will by on him like most fighters (i.e. Mike Swift) I feel he usually does this with his power and make no mistake that J. Mac is physically very strong. I like J. Mac in the 2nd or 3rd round via tapout.

Rubin

by Rubin on Oct 19, 2007 7:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

While I can only see the Silva – Franklin fight going Silva’s way, these are professional fighters and Franklin does have a chance (however slim).

Look for the opening exchange to be a major factor in the course of this fight. If Franklin gets the worst of it, I predict his confidence will decline and he will fight not to get knocked out. Ironically, this will lead Silva to finish Franklin all the sooner.

by Khemtawe on Oct 19, 2007 8:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ViolentMike, congrats on making number 1 commentator. Great write up. I agree with a lot of what you say but hope to see the matches go differently. I’d like to see Franklin smack Anderson’s face in. Also, Okami doesn’t do anything for my and J-Mac is the man. Hopefully he’ll own Okami. A final note, Vera is getting KTFO! Way out of his league and weight class!

I wasn’t selecting the outcomes on who I was ‘hoping to see’ win, I was calling it as a I see it. I will be rooting for Franklin as well. Because I like Rich, and especially because next season of TUF is MW’s and that would mean that the coaches would most likely be Franklin and Hendo. I think being a TUF coach and fighting Franklin in a unifaction bout is exactly what Henderson needs to hear in order for him to be motivated to drop back to 185. Okami/MacDonald. If anyone is going to get ‘owned’ in this fight, its J-Mac. I can see MacDonald pulling off a submission victory via choke, but not ‘owning’ the fight.

by ViolentMike on Oct 19, 2007 8:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I wasn’t selecting the outcomes on who I was "hoping to see’ win, I was calling it as a I see it.

correction: I wasn’t selecting the outcomes on who I was "hoping to see’ win, I was calling it as a I see it and selecting who I think will win the bout.

by ViolentMike on Oct 19, 2007 8:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Mighty will fall this time around….

Main event: Franklin will pull this one out in the later rounds, everyone forgets that Franklin was set up to fall by a series of knees to the body. Expect a dominating ground performance from Ace, it might be a little boring in the first few rounds but Rich WILL mount and finish by referee stopage. Lutter had Silva in Round 1. Injured or Not Franklin is too educated and physical for Silva to submit…The Cinci Kid will prevail.

David and Goliath: Silvia is angry, humiliated and hungry, knowing that Couture is out of the picture, he will not hesitate to capitalize on this opportunity to silence his haters and earn a shot at the vacant title. After this fight expect Vera to drop weight, Silvia via devastating KO.

by Jordan on Oct 19, 2007 8:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I can’t believe there not showing the Okami/Mcdonald fight. I think we will get the fight after the main event if theres time on the ppv.
I see Sylvia and Silva victorious in their bouts

I see Vera and Franklin victorious.

by Gord on Oct 20, 2007 12:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I can’t believe there not showing the Okami/Mcdonald fight. I think we will get the fight after the main event if theres time on the ppv.

I see Sylvia and Silva victorious in their bouts

i agree with both, and am also pretty confused by okami/mcdonald not being on the main card…weird

by tha spida on Oct 20, 2007 12:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

can somebody explain to me why jorge gurgel is even fighting in the ufc.. the kid is a no talent bum who happens to pal around with real fighters . he opens up his own gym and that alone is his only link to real mma.

agreed, never like him

by tha spida on Oct 20, 2007 12:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Vera will have his way with Sylvia
I see Franklin winning by (T)KO
Starnes
Mac by out husseling Okami
Bonner by KO

by Gord on Oct 20, 2007 12:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

…am also pretty confused by okami/mcdonald not being on the main card…weird

ditto

by SaVaGe on Oct 20, 2007 12:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I know I said I wasn’t going to post anymore but Thank you VM for your words on the coutour post.
maybe i just wont read all the comments.
My predictions/picks
SILVA 1st rd over franklin same result as first fight
although what vm had said about franklin jus making it out of the first rd and falling in the second I could see as well
either way silva ko’s franklin.
-VERA over sylvia it may just look like silva and franklins first fight nose an inch to the left-1st rd-fastest fight of the night.
-BONNAR no contest-bonnar looked physically better than ever in his last fight. gnp until bonnar submits him after getting tired from hitting him.
-STARNES over belcher. starnes stood with leben and won if all belcher has is his hands starnes will be fine.
-MACDONALD, I like him, he’s got ground game/experiance and I think he can take a punch/doesn’t seem to defend them to well but can eat him.
-BURKMAN
-GURGEL
-MAIA
-BLACK

Good picks Jesse, I agree on them all ,except I can’t help but think Franklin is going to take this one.

by Gord on Oct 20, 2007 12:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Vera by triangle choke in the second round and Franklin by TKO in the third (via GnP). Bonnar by decision.

Vera will never get a triangle on big Tim, it wont happen.

by shawn on Oct 20, 2007 1:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Silva: T/KO
Sylvia: T/KO
-————- Schafer: SUB
Starnes: SUB
Okami: T/KO

by Mamas Boy on Oct 20, 2007 7:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I’ll be curious to see if Vera’s leg kicks leave him open to one of Timmy Boy’s big meathooks connecting. Sylvia has about a 6" reach advantage. And when Vera shoots for a takedown Sylvia will put his 50 lbs weight advantage sprawl on him.

My hope is the old, hungry, mean Sylvia shows up tonight and turns out Vera’s lights. Then you have to say Timmy Boy is ready to get his belt back.

by Mamas Boy on Oct 20, 2007 7:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Quickly.. Sylvia will lose due to lack of speed and kinesthetic awareness. Vera decisively!

Quickly.. Sylvia will lose due to lack of speed and kinesthetic awareness. Vera decisively!I think Franklin will have an answer for for Silva’s double collar Muai Tai but I don’t think it will be enough as Silva’s
accurate kicks and hooks will tell the story. Maybe even another Rhinoplasty for Franklin.

by scort on Oct 20, 2007 9:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I do not see Franklin having a chance at a win. Even at his he is not on Silva’s level. 3rd round ko or tko for Silva.

Vera I think is in for the fight of is lie. I think he is going to loose in the late 2nd or beginning 3rd, by KO. Silva is just to big, to experienced, and if healthy, just way to strong.

I have asked this on several occasion and nobody has ever replied about it. HOw come Gabrielle Gonzaga is not in the HW picture. I really like him and I think he may be the only one who could really handle the size of Tom Silvia. I mean he lost to Couture who beat Silvia and nothing has been said since.

by Da Monkey on Oct 20, 2007 10:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

correction: I wasn’t selecting the outcomes on who I was "hoping to see’ win, I was calling it as a I see it and selecting who I think will win the bout.

dont know what you are seeing in timmy violent mike, timmy will be knocked out 2nd round, did you see the ufc countdown, on spike tv, where vera is training with juanito, and rampage, and juanito was saying quote: MARK MY WORDS, VERA WILL BE HW CHAMPION, do you think juanito, might know just how good vera is, because he just couldnt, stop throwing enough compliments veras way, vera has an advantage, in evry area of the game, tims reach wont play a factor, veras leg reach is greater, and he will be pounding timmy with it.Ã‚Â that bet any money on timmy kiss it good bye

by kamanstar on Oct 20, 2007 12:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I’ll be curious to see if Vera’s leg kicks leave him open to one of Timmy Boy’s big meathooks connecting. Sylvia has about a 6" reach advantage. And when Vera shoots for a takedown Sylvia will put his 50 lbs weight advantage sprawl on him.

My hope is the old, hungry, mean Sylvia shows up tonight and turns out Vera’s lights. Then you have to say Timmy Boy is ready to get his belt back.

vera wont be shooting at timmy for a takedown, its going to be obvious, after a few minutes, timmy is not in veras league, his hand speed , and power is no joke, kicking game, and elbows and knees the best, nasty muay thai, championship greco wrestling, very good bjj, and to top it of his boxing, working with juanito, will be extremely good, this could be the biggesat mismatch of the whole night, timmy is going to look like a dinosaur out there

by kamanstar on Oct 20, 2007 12:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Okay, here’s where I always post my picks, so here goes.
Sylvia by ko rd 1
Silva by sub rd 3
Okami by tko Rd 3
Jensen by sub rd 2
Bonner by tko rd 2
Robinson by tko rd 2
Ryan by tko rd 2
Petz by tko rd 1
Black sub rd 1

by MrFye on Oct 20, 2007 7:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

dont know what you are seeing in timmy violent mike, timmy will be knocked out 2nd round, did you see the ufc countdown, on spike tv, where vera is training with juanito, and rampage, and juanito was saying quote: MARK MY WORDS, VERA WILL BE HW CHAMPION, do you think juanito, might know just how good vera is, because he just couldnt, stop throwing enough compliments veras way, vera has an advantage, in evry area of the game, tims reach wont play a factor, veras leg reach is greater, and he will be pounding timmy with it.Ã‚Â that bet any money on timmy kiss it good bye

Look above in the main article and look at my picks. I have Vera winning by unanimous decision, although I’ll be rooting for him to KO him.

by ViolentMike on Oct 20, 2007 9:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs