UFC 74 quick preview, analysis and predictions

by MMAmania.com on Aug 24, 2007 9:42 PM EDT Comment 38 comments

We've waited nearly two very long months for UFC 74: "Respect" tomorrow night at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada.

We've had so much time to hear about and discuss this fight card that it would seem like we've made up our minds about the potential results.

Not the case.

Me and our loyal contributor, Jesse Holland, went head-to-head once again, attempting to predict the outcomes on the main card action at UFC 74.

Yep, back by unpopular demand we're once again off to provide UFCmania readers with two unique perspectives on the main card fights.

We agree on four out of the five fights (surprisingly), but I'm still at a crossroads on a few fights even on the eve of the event.

Who knows.

Below, you'll see that we both took one fighter in each bout to support. It's important to note that while we may be lauding a certain fighter, he isn't necessarily the guy who we think is going to win.

Basically, we never want this to come out sounding repetitive — I do that enough day in and day out. At the end of each analysis, therefore, you will see our picks.

Here we go:

Randy Couture (15-8) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (8-1)
UFCmania: At 44 years old, Randy Couture not only defies genetics, but oddsmakers, too. He thrives in the underdog role, winning 10 of 11 fights in that capacity -- his loss to Chuck Liddell at UFC 57 being the only exception. He also happens to boast a tremendous amount of skill and experience. Like a fine wine (Yes, I said it) he seems to get better with age. "The Natural" has evolved into a master gameplanner with his recent win over Tim Sylvia being the prime example. Couture, however, has been far more gracious leading up to this fight with Gonzaga in terms of praise and what he knows will be a very tough fight. I'm not sure Randy believes deep down that he will win this fight, but I do. Gonzaga is a beast and will no doubt be around for a long time. I just don't see Couture losing this one. He's going to push the pace early and wear down the younger, stronger Gonzaga en route to a late-round referee stoppage. Cardio and no "pre-fight" jitters are going to be the difference makers in this one.

Jesse Holland: Gabriel Gonzaga, like Anderson Silva before him, turned the UFC on its head back at UFC 70. "Napao" was supposed to be cannon fodder for the newly acquired Mirko Cro Cop. Instead Gonzaga proved that with heart, determination and a perfectly timed head kick you can beat anyone. Now he looks to ride that momentum right into a championship win. It won't be an easy task however as Randy Couture has made a career out of defying the odds. Still, it's hard not to favor the younger and more powerful Brazilian. Gonzaga is skilled at both jiu-jitsu and striking, but needs to keep this fight on the ground where he can control the pace and eventually work the submission or try and ground and pound his way to the belt. Knowing Gonzaga's reputation for running out of gas and Couture's ability to fight for a week straight, Napao needs to bring the fury hard and fast. If he can, he may very well leave Vegas the UFC heavyweight champ.

Final Predictions:
UFCmania -- Couture via technical knockout
Holland -- Couture via technical knockout

Georges St. Pierre (13-2) vs. Josh Koscheck (9-1)
UFCmania: Josh Koscheck has been competing in some capacity since he more or less stopped rocking diapers. This guy is a sensational wrestler who has defeated the top competition in the nation at his weight class for the better part of his adolescent and adult life. His resume is that good. But, this is mixed martial arts and not a wrestling match. I think those skills and that experience will no doubt give Koscheck a very good chance at winning this fight. Cripes, his stand-up even looked solid his last time out against Diego Sanchez. This is going to be a much better fight than most people give it credit. I see it going down much like St. Pierre vs. BJ Penn ala UFC 58: Koscheck is going to come out strong and dominate the first round. After that, St. Pierre will win the next two en route to a decision win, putting to rest all the "heart" and "mental toughness" talk for good. Or ... at least another fight.

Jesse Holland: Come back Georges St. Pierre, all is forgiven. Some UFC fans may have turned their backs on the young Canadian but to be fair, GSP brings it upon himself. I think the Matt Serra loss and subsequent aftermath was a huge wake-up call. While he still may not have his head screwed on straight, I think we are going to see an angry GSP on Saturday. Koscheck knows how to win and has great credentials, but he's never faced a fighter as dynamic as GSP. Koscheck's wrestling will mean nothing in this contest, just as Sherk's did when he faced the former champ back at UFC 56. GSP's win column is a "who's who" of UFC champions including the aforementioned Sherk, Matt Hughes and BJ Penn. He's also gone to war with Karo Parisyan and snuffed out Frank Trigg. The biggest test to date for Koscheck was a zombie-like Diego Sanchez, who could be the first fighter to bring Matador D to an MMA match. This one won't last long.

Final Predictions:
UFCmania -- St. Pierre via decision
Holland -- St. Pierre via technical knockout

Joe Stevenson (27-7) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (10-2)
UFCmania: Since losing to Drew Fickett and dropping down to lightweight, Kurt Pellegrino has been on a tear, submitting his last three opponents all in the first round. That's more than likely not going to happen against Joe Stevenson, but at the same time, it wouldn't surprise me if it did. This should be a very technical ground war -- neither fighter boasts very dangerous stand-up games. For me, again, this one comes down to conditioning. And I hate to say it, but that's been just about the only knock on Stevenson. I think he's ready for a full 15 minutes, however, and he's going to need it against an extremely game "Batman." At the end of the bout, this fight ends in a decision and Stevenson goes on to fight BJ Penn for the vacant 155-pound title later this year.

Jesse Holland: If they were handing out an award for the UFC's most improved fighter, it would probably go to Joe Stevenson. He looked flat against Luke Cummo at the TUF 2 finale and his loss to Josh Neer was less than inspiring. Since then he's been on an absolute tear. His move to lightweight brought out the talent we all knew he had, as he laid waste to Yves Edwards and dropped the guillotine on Dokonjonosuke Mishima and Melvin Guillard. Pellegrino is no pushover however, and this is not the time for "Daddy" to get careless. Stevenson's best chance is on the ground where he can unleash his ruthless ground and pound. If Pellegrino gives up his back, it will be over quickly. This is an important match for Stevenson because a win here (should) put him into title contention. He may have that on his head going into Saturday night but I don't think a fighter with his experience will be fazed by it.

Final Predictions:
UFCmania -- Stevenson via decision
Holland -- Stevenson via submission

Roger Huerta (18-1-1) vs. Alberto Crane (8-0)
UFCmania: Alberto Crane has been out of the professional fight game for two years. Yet, he has somehow secured a spot on a UFC main card pay-per-view (PPV) against one of the brightest stars in the lightweight division. Set up? Perhaps. But Crane is a very slick and experienced ground fighter, earning his Brazilian jiu-jitsu blackbelt under the esteemed Carlos Gracie. Huerta, for some reason, never impresses me. His cardio and "fightuitiveness" certainly does, but that's about it. "El Matador" looked real shaky against Doug Evans, and although the fight was dynamite, he should have finished Leonard Garcia at UFC 69 to earn my utmost and armchair respect. Put simply, Huerta looks the part and acts the part, but I don't think he is the part. Not now, anyway. Crane says he sees holes in Huerta's game ... and I believe him. When I think Alberto Crane for this fight, I think Jason MacDonald. And when I think Roger Huerta for this fight, I think Ed Herman. Color me crazy. Check back on Sunday when I might have egg on my face. For now, I'm going with the upset and Crane via submission. And it might just be the best thing to happen to Huerta for the long-term.

Jesse Holland: Roger Huerta may be the hardest working man in showbiz. Since his fight against John Halverson at UFC 67, "El Matador" has been fighting every two months with Saturday's match being his fourth in 2007. It's not unreasonable to think such a pace can catch up with a fighter (see the Evans match), but I don't think it's a problem for the young lightweight. Like Stevenson, Huerta is on the fast track to a lightweight title match and he needs to keep the momentum going. Perhaps the reward for fighting so frequently is yet another unproven UFC newcomer? It's no reward for us. Alberto Crane is a very talented submission specialist, but against who? And how do we know if Crane will fold under the pressure of fighting on his first live pay-per-view? There are too many unanswered question for me to think Huerta will have much trouble dispatching his lightweight opponent. His best bet is to avoid the ground game and use his superior striking to batter Crane for three rounds.

Final Predictions:
UFCmania -- Crane via submission
Holland -- Huerta via unanimous decision

Kendall Grove (8-3) vs. Patrick Cote (10-4)
UFCmania: Season three winner of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF), Kendall Grove, improves markedly every time he steps inside the Octagon. On August 25, things will be no different. Not even the chronic, er, punching power of Patrick Cote is going to derail this Hawaiian locomotive. At this point, against this level of competition, the only person who is going to beat Kendall Grove is himself. He's super tall, tough and able to win this fight standing or on the mat. Sans a lucky punch, Grove is taking this win and looking ahead at cracking the upper echelon of the division in the near future.

Jesse Holland: It's no secret that Patrick Cote has become something of a punchline at this point, but he does have a chance to beat Kendall Grove. He's choked out another lanky fighter with an impressive resume in Jason "The Athlete" MacDonald and could also do it here. It's not likely, but hey this is MMA and as we all know anything can happen. Better yet, Cote could swing for the fences and hope to score a flash knockout, like the punch that almost dropped Tito Ortiz back at UFC 50. I've never been a big fan of disengaging, but Cote should keep his distance and try to frustrate the rising star. If Grove gets frustrated he may try for something big and Cote can catch him. Or Cote can grease the steps leading up to the Octagon and hope Grove wipes out and sprains his ankle. I know in soccer it's not uncommon for a player to get hit in the leg and collapse in a heap, feigning a groin injury. Maybe Cote can win by DQ? Like I said, anything can happen.

Final Predictions:
UFCmania -- Grove via technical knockout
Holland -- Grove via technical knockout

What do you think? Now it's your turn ... let us have it in the comments section and provide your picks for UFC 74.

For the complete UFC 74 fight card click here.

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Comments

YEA!!! FIRST COMMENT!!!

Couture by Decision
St. Pierre by KO/TKO
Huerta by Decision
Pellegrino by Submission
Grove by KO/TKO

Guida by Decison
Leites by Submission
Hardonk by KO/TKO
Heath by KO/TKO

by ruber on Aug 24, 2007 9:48 PM EDT reply actions

Couture by TKO, fourth round
GSP by KO, first round
Huerta by TKO, third round
Stevenson by unanimous decision
Cote by KO, second round

Guida by TKO, second round
Leites by submission, first round
Mir by unanimous decision
Heath by KO/TKO, first round

by Hardcase on Aug 24, 2007 10:06 PM EDT reply actions

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!! YEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!! SECOND COMENT!!!!! OOOOO YEEEEEEEAAAAA WHOSE BAD!!!!

Napao by submission
Rush however he wants it if his mind is right, if not Kos by decision
El Matador by TKO
Daddy by TKO
Da Spyda by Submission
Leites by submission
Heath by KO
Mir by submission
Maximus by submission (sorry guida fans)

What the hell is “fightuidness”?

by JRV on Aug 24, 2007 10:20 PM EDT reply actions

Damn

by JRV on Aug 24, 2007 10:22 PM EDT reply actions

I have to disagree with Mania on Crane. Huerta’s competition in the ufc have been better than anything Crane has ever faced. Crane’s opponents have a combined losing record. Crane has never submitted a tough opponent in mma (all losing records except two oppenents with one more win than losses). The only decent opponent Crane has fought he beat by split decision. Crane may have good Jits but it wont be enough when Huerta overwhelms him on the feet, takes him down and pounds him out for the tko.

by Rex on Aug 24, 2007 10:24 PM EDT reply actions

ok heres my picks:

randy couture vs. gabe gonzaga: gonzaga 3rd rd. (T)KO (KO of the night)
gsp vs. josh koshcheck: gsp unanimous decision
roger huerta vs. alberto crane: huerta unanimous decision
joe stevenson vs. kurt pellegrino: stevenson 2nd rd. guillotine
kendall grvoe vs. patrick cote: kendall grove 2nd rd. triangle choke (submission of the night)

frank mir vs. antoni hardonk: frank mir unanimous decision
babalu vs. david heath: babalu 2nd rd. armbar
ryan jenson vs. thales leites: thales 1st rd. rear naked choke
clay guida vs. marcus aurelio: guida unanimous decision (fight of the night)

by tha spida on Aug 24, 2007 10:39 PM EDT reply actions

Randy: late round ref stopage
Gsp: early TKO
Cote: KO
Mir: early submission

by Gord on Aug 24, 2007 10:57 PM EDT reply actions

What the hell is “fightuidness”?

No idea. I just made it up.

by UFCmania on Aug 24, 2007 11:14 PM EDT reply actions

Gonzaga 2nd round TKO
GSP Decision
Stevenson Sub
Cote TKO

by Hoodlum on Aug 24, 2007 11:33 PM EDT reply actions

gonzaga vs couture:couture decision
gsp vs kos: gsp tko round 2
huerta vs crane: huerta tko round 3
pellegrino vs stevensen: stevensen submission round 1
cote vs grove: grove tko round 2

by erik on Aug 24, 2007 11:44 PM EDT reply actions

Great breakdowns, guys!

Hey, sorry if this is old news, but which fights, for sure, are going to be shown on the PPV?

Thanks!

by Soups on Aug 24, 2007 11:59 PM EDT reply actions

Gonzaga by KO round 2
GSP by KO round 1
Huerta by submission round 3
stevenson by submission round 2
cote by TKO round 3
Mir by unanimous decision
Babalu by submission round 2
Leites by unanimous decision
Guida by submission round 2

by Ashley on Aug 25, 2007 12:02 AM EDT reply actions

are yall serious with david heath???? Babalu is gonna run through that dude…..

by DJ BRUNZ SANTANA on Aug 25, 2007 12:02 AM EDT reply actions

gonzaga v couture,,, big fight, no contest… u think i’m kidding. Couture will dominate.. The Genetic Freak

by scotty on Aug 25, 2007 12:34 AM EDT reply actions

I think Dana knows what he si doing putting Crane in against Huerta. I think Huerta is incredibly overrated, not top ten material and vulnerable all around but Crane is unproven in MMA and is rusty. I will be pulling for Crane to win though.

by Legal Eagle on Aug 25, 2007 12:43 AM EDT reply actions

Career high pressure fights for Gonzaga: 0
High pressure fights for Couture: 10
Couture will win without getting his heart rate over 70. Gonzaga is probably already at 100bpm.

by EazyEismydad on Aug 25, 2007 1:31 AM EDT reply actions

Koz vs St. Pierre:
GSP is pissed about letting himself down, pissed at the people who criticize him, and once again pissed at Hughes for celebrating his loss. We all have seen GSP pissed, and I think we all know whats coming.
Enjoy making your way back to the top 5 after this one Koz.

by EazyEismydad on Aug 25, 2007 1:39 AM EDT reply actions

I couldn’t agree with you (UFCmania) more about Huerta. Everyone says how impressed they were with him in the Garcia fight. For me, I was just struck at how little power he had behind his strikes. I also thought he showed some major weaknesses on the ground against Garcia and Evans. I think Huerta has some nice skills and might eventually win a title but he still hasn’t shown me can beat topflight competition.

Lastly, GSP destroys Kos. Everyone talks about Koscheck’s super grappling skills but it’s not such a big advantage to make up for GSP’s overwhelming superiority in striking, kickboxing, muy thai and BJJ. Get over the Serra fight. Georges has.

by Joe on Aug 25, 2007 3:26 AM EDT reply actions

I think Rocky’s going to take it clubber Lang for the entire length of the fight, ultimately winning in the last round by knockout.

by Theman on Aug 25, 2007 3:28 AM EDT reply actions

Randy Couture vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
Gonzaga by ko rd 1

Georges St. Pierre vs. Josh Koscheck
kos decision

Joe Stevenson vs. Kurt Pellegrino
Stevenson submission rd 1

Kendall Grove vs. Patrick Cote
Cote ko rd 1

Roger Huerta vs. Alberto Crane
Huerta Decision

Renato “Babalu” Sobral vs. David Heath
Babalu (at 100%) sub rd 1

Frank Mir vs. Antoni Hardonk
Mir Decision

Thales Leites vs. Ryan Jensen
Jensen tko rd 1

Marcus Aurelio vs. Clay Guida
Guda Decision

by jsoph on Aug 25, 2007 4:13 AM EDT reply actions

COUTURE by decision
GEORGE ST. PIERRE by 2nd round K.O
COTE by 1st round K.O
HUERTA by 1st round K.O
PELLEGRINO by Submission
HEATH by tko
MIR by k.o
LEITES by submission
GUIDA by k.o

by Sour Diesel on Aug 25, 2007 4:37 AM EDT reply actions

Couture by decision or late stoppage

GSP by TKO/KO no brainer

I do lean more towards Grove, and even though he trains in my hometown Kai I want Cote to knock him out

by Beserker on Aug 25, 2007 4:55 AM EDT reply actions

Couture via TKO
St Pierre via TKO
Grove via sub
Huerta via TKO
Stevenson via decision
Heath via TKO
Mir via sub
Leitas via decision
Guida via decision

by c-war on Aug 25, 2007 5:23 AM EDT reply actions

Koscheck, 29, is coming off his most impressive victory yet, a unanimous decision over the previously unbeaten Diego Sanchez.

LOL, its funny becuz its true

by dsi_chameleon on Aug 25, 2007 8:17 AM EDT reply actions

Gonzaga via TKO
St. Pierre via TKO
Stevenson via submission
Huerta via TKO
Babalu via submission
Mir via submission
Cote via TKO

by n_memorex on Aug 25, 2007 8:59 AM EDT reply actions

Couture via late TKO
St Pierre via TKO
Stevenson via TKO
Huerta via decision
Sobral via decision
Mir via decision
Grove via TKO
Aurelio via submission
Leites via submission

by KneeToTheFace on Aug 25, 2007 11:37 AM EDT reply actions

27th post HOLLALULLIA HOLLA BACK BOOOOOOOOY!

Randy dec
Kos dec
Daddy sub
Huerta tko
Sobral sub
Mir sub
Grove tko
Guida tko
Leites tko

HATER’S BEWARE….A STORM APPROACHES….

WANT THAT RESPECT BOY!!!!!!

by i bread on Aug 25, 2007 12:24 PM EDT reply actions

Couture via Late TKO
St-Pierre via KO rd 1
Stevenson via Sub rd 1
Huerta via tko rd 2
Sobral vis Sub rd 1
Cote via TKO rd 1
Guida via rd 1 tko
Leites via rd 1 sub
Mir via Sub rd 1

by Scott on Aug 25, 2007 2:21 PM EDT reply actions

I’m going with no decisive finishes:

Couture by DEC
GSP by DEC
Huerta by DEC
Stevenson by DEC
Cote by DEC

There will be lots to b1tch about tomorrow morning. :)
The undercard is pretty interesting but I’m not picking anything on that.

by Mamas Boy on Aug 25, 2007 3:04 PM EDT reply actions

gong 3rd round ref stoppage
gsp 1st round tko
daddy 2nd round sub
roger 3rd round tko
heath 1st round knockout
kendall 2nd round sub
mir 1st round sub
captian caveman 2nd round clubbing
leites split d

by White Rhino on Aug 25, 2007 3:07 PM EDT reply actions

MAIN CARD

Gabriel Gonzaga TKO Rd. 4
Georges St. Pierre decision over Kos
Patrick Cote (T)KO, round 2
Joe Daddy by submission, round 1
Roger Huerta by TKO, round 2

UNDERCARD

David Heath by TKO, round 3
Frank Mir by unanimous decision
Marcus Aurelio and Clay Guida draw, OR split dec. to Guida
Thales Leites by sub, whenever

I certainly feel that many of tonights fights can go either way. However, here is why I picked as I did:

Gonzaga is not out of shape by any means at 250something. He could have easily come in at a lesser weight, so I’ll assume that he is choosing to be this heavy. His power will be greater than the force of nature that is Randy Couture, and by Round 4 Napao will be mounting The Natural. When he does, the fight will be stopped, TKO due to elbow strikes. Unless at this point the fight is stood up… Just kidding. However, if the fight goes to the fifth, and both men have two rounds apiece, then I believe that Randy will pull out the decision, controversial or otherwise.

Patrick Cote is not the same fighter that he used to be. He now takes direction from trainer and cornerman Kru Mark DellaGrotte. He has trained extensively for Grove, and will be ready for Da Spyda’s height and reach advantage. Patrick will be alert for elbows, and knees from the clinch. He knows how to counter these moves, and has the power to finish Grove with strikes. I believe that Cote catches Grove with a power punch, then mounts the downed Spyda to administer a fight ending flurry, thereby giving Cote new life in the UFC, and Grove his first loss.

Picking Heath over Babalu is a statement more about Babalu than it is Heath. In his prime, Sobral dominates here. But
Babalu hasn’t looked like his prime self lately, with poor showings in the Octagon, as well as his getting arrested during training camp roughlu one month ago. Heath is dangerous, certainly dangerous enough to challenge a man who may be on the downside of his MMA career. (I’m not saying BABALU is done, I’m just saying that he has peaked, and now he may have to reassess his training methods to get back on track-I do believe that he can tonight, but that he won’t.)

by Sean F. on Aug 25, 2007 3:56 PM EDT reply actions

The person who gets the most correct should get a prize.

That or there should be a wager between you Mania, and Jesse Holland just for kicks.

Here is my picks:

Gabriel Gonzaga Round 2 Knock-Out.
Josh Koscheck- Judges Decision- Unanimous
Joe Stevenson- Round 1 Tapout
Kendall Grove- Round 2 Submission.
Babalu- Round 3 Tapout
Clay Guida-Round 2-KO
Alberto Crane-Round 2- Submission
Frank Mir- Round 2 Submission
Thales Leites- Round 2- Death By Knee.

by "Mr. NC-17" on Aug 25, 2007 5:21 PM EDT reply actions

Oh yeah, I was right, Cote knocked out Grove

by Beserker on Aug 26, 2007 1:39 AM EDT reply actions

I’m going with no decisive finishes:

Couture by DEC – stoppage
GSP by DEC – dec
Huerta by DEC – stoppage
Stevenson by DEC – dec
Cote by DEC – stoppage

There will be lots to b1tch about tomorrow morning. :)
The undercard is pretty interesting but I’m not picking anything on that.

Well I was 100% on the “who’s” but only 40% on the “how’s”. Better than the 0% on winners for UFC 71.

by Mamas Boy on Aug 26, 2007 7:03 AM EDT reply actions

MAIN CARD

* Gabriel Gonzaga TKO Rd. 4
* Georges St. Pierre decision over Kos
* Patrick Cote (T)KO, round 2
* Joe Daddy by submission, round 1
* Roger Huerta by TKO, round 2

UNDERCARD

* David Heath by TKO, round 3
* Frank Mir by unanimous decision
* Marcus Aurelio and Clay Guida draw, OR split dec. to Guida
* Thales Leites by sub, whenever

Patrick Cote is not the same fighter that he used to be. He now takes direction from trainer and cornerman Kru Mark DellaGrotte. He has trained extensively for Grove, and will be ready for Da Spyda’s height and reach advantage. Patrick will be alert for elbows, and knees from the clinch. He knows how to counter these moves, and has the power to finish Grove with strikes. I believe that Cote catches Grove with a power punch, then mounts the downed Spyda to administer a fight ending flurry, thereby giving Cote new life in the UFC, and Grove his first loss.

Not bad. I’m happy for Randy. And Babalu isn’t finished yet, although he may be suspended for a while. Anyone do better with their picks?

by Sean F. on Aug 26, 2007 12:16 PM EDT reply actions

NEVER, EVER, count out the Natural. Don’t go by his losses to Chuck, he was going through a divorce and his head was messed up (think about it ,he retired from the sport he loves) just like GSP vs Sera. Age means nothing when your strength and cardio are better than the 25 year olds in your gym. In fact it’s an asset , because with it comes experiance ,knowledge and more time to perfect your game. Randy is a Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay better fighter now, than when he fought Josh Barnett.

by Gord on Aug 26, 2007 2:18 PM EDT reply actions